A.L. Capital Advisory · Research
Free institutional research: frameworks, market intelligence, equity analysis
Original analysis, investment frameworks, and market intelligence - written to institutional standards and applied to private investor portfolios. Every piece authored by Anton Ladnyi.
Pillar I
How the frameworks work - Black-Litterman, Monte Carlo, CVaR
Deep methodology articles explaining the quantitative models that underpin every portfolio analysis on this platform.
Foundational Working Paper
Portfolio Construction Under Parameter Uncertainty: A Bayesian Framework for Strategic Asset Allocation
The complete methodology behind every engagement: Ledoit-Wolf covariance shrinkage, Black-Litterman Bayesian updating, CVaR-constrained optimisation, Cholesky Monte Carlo simulation, and a four-layer model governance hierarchy. Full mathematical derivation. 20 citations.
Read online →
Valuation Framework
Beta & CAPM: Formula, Calculation & Cost of Equity
Why the same stock shows a different beta on every screener, the Blume and Vasicek adjustment methods, levered vs unlevered beta, and how CAPM's cost of equity feeds the WACC discount rate.
Portfolio Optimization
What Is Black-Litterman Portfolio Optimization?
The Bayesian model developed at Goldman Sachs that solves mean-variance optimization's fatal flaw - extreme sensitivity to return estimates. A complete practitioner's explanation.
Risk Modelling
Monte Carlo Simulation for Portfolio Planning
Why single-line projections mislead and how 10,000 simulated paths reveal tail risk, sequence-of-returns risk, and goal probability. A practitioner's guide.
Portfolio Construction
Ledoit-Wolf Covariance Shrinkage: Why Your Correlation Matrix Is Wrong
Why sample covariance matrices fail in practice, what shrinkage estimation does, and why it matters for portfolio construction under parameter uncertainty.
Risk Management
CVaR and Tail Risk: Measuring What VaR Misses
Conditional Value at Risk versus Value at Risk - why fat tails matter, how CVaR captures expected shortfall in the worst scenarios, and how it changes allocation decisions.
Portfolio Governance
The Investment Policy Statement: The Document Every Portfolio Needs
What an IPS is, what it contains, why every institutional investor mandates one - and why its absence is the single biggest governance gap in private investor portfolios.
Equity Valuation
DCF Valuation Framework: From Free Cash Flow to Intrinsic Value
Why terminal value drives 60–80% of equity intrinsic value, how a 1% WACC shift moves high-multiple tech stocks ~25%, and how P/E, EV/EBITDA, and P/B ratios reduce to DCF assumptions.
Pillar II
Sector and thematic research: private credit, AI infrastructure, defence
Sector deep-dives and macro analysis targeting institutional-grade investment theses for private portfolios.
Capital Markets & Financing Structures · New · August 14, 2026
Compute as an Asset Class: Inside NVIDIA's $500B Compute Capital Stack
NVIDIA and six alternative asset managers want to turn GPUs into leasable infrastructure. Four original frameworks — the Compute Capital Stack, Compute Yield, Compute Asset IRR and Compute Duration — applied to three financing precedents and one >$500B platform ambition, the 2045-maturity debt already written against compute, and why Oracle and Alphabet sit on opposite ends of the same bet.
Emerging Technology & Capital Markets · New · August 2026
Quantum Computing: The Next Compute Cycle — Economics, Winners & Investment Map
Quantinuum's $15.7B Nasdaq IPO, IQM's SPAC listing, and a $2.013B CHIPS Act government equity push landed within one quarter — while DARPA's independent QBI evaluation still shows only 11 of 18 architectures advancing to Stage B. Three original frameworks — the Quantum Utility Bridge, the QEC Efficiency Map and the Quantum Value Migration Curve — map quantum's utility-economics chain end to end, with no individual equity ratings.
Sector Deep-Dive · Technology & Infrastructure · Updated August 7, 2026
The AI Capex Cycle: $775–800B Hyperscaler Buildout & Five High-Conviction Positions
Q2 CY2026 was the quarter self-funding ended: Big-5 capex guides now ~$775–800B, Alphabet's first negative free-cash-flow quarter at −$5.9B, Microsoft's commercial RPO $678B (+84%). Colocation vacancy 1.4%, a ~49 GW US power shortfall by 2028, and the five high-conviction positions — NVDA, VRT, EQIX, MU, CEG.
Sector Deep-Dive · Alternative Assets · Updated April 18, 2026
Private Equity 2026: $265B Crisis - Why Blackstone & KKR Lead
$265B+ wiped across alt managers since Sep 2025. Apollo's $25B BDC gated March 23. Why Blackstone & KKR maintain High Conviction - and why Apollo & Ares were downgraded. Full conviction hierarchy, BDC scenario model, and manager comparison.
Sector Deep-Dive · Alternative Assets · April 2026
Private Credit 2026: BDC Liquidity Crisis & the Three Structural Forces
The BDC sector is under stress from three converging forces: rate normalisation, covenant deterioration, and PIK income inflation. CVaR-based drawdown analysis across six BDC vehicles - GS, BX, APO, ARES, BLK, OWL - with conviction hierarchy and redemption risk map.
Macro Strategy · Q2 2026
European Rate Cycle & PE Vintage Risk
ECB normalisation and structurally mispriced exposure across illiquid asset classes held by European private investors.
Market Intelligence · Defence
Defence Spending 2026: The NATO Rearmament Supercycle
Our signature Rearmament Capture Rate: US primes capture ~23% of the $309B equipment pool (LMT), no European prime over 10% - the fragmentation is the opportunity. SIPRI world spend $2.89T. High Conviction: LMT, RHM, BAE, GD. Two signature metrics (Capture Rate + Backlog Quality) + interactive conviction ladder & 9 charts, a cycle-sensitivity map and a 155mm-ammo teardown. Verified vs Q1/H1 2026 earnings. Anton Ladnyi, CFA. July 2026.
Sector Deep-Dive · FinTech & Information Finance · May 2026
Prediction Markets 2026: How HOOD, COIN & IBKR Win the $1 Trillion Race
$51B in 2025 → $1T by 2030 (Bernstein, 80% CAGR). Kalshi & Polymarket are private - public-market exposure flows through the distribution layer. HOOD: $350M+ ARR, +320% YoY. COIN: $100M ARR in 2 months. IBKR: owns ForecastEx exchange outright. Cantor Fitzgerald: Overweight HOOD & COIN. Original ARPU model, InfoFi value chain, regulatory binary analysis.
Sector Deep-Dive · FinTech & Event Contracts · May 2026
FIFA World Cup 2026 Prediction Markets: HOOD & COIN Revenue Opportunity
How the FIFA 2026 World Cup creates a $180M+ incremental revenue opportunity for HOOD and COIN through Kalshi event contracts.
Pillar III
Equity analysis - 130+ companies, quantitatively scored
Quantitative factor analysis and risk profiles for individual equities - generated from the Asset Lens engine.
NVDA
NVIDIA Corporation
Technology
AAPL
Apple Inc.
Technology
MSFT
Microsoft Corporation
Technology
GOOGL
Alphabet Inc.
Technology
AMZN
Amazon.com Inc.
Consumer Cyclical
META
Meta Platforms Inc.
Technology
TSLA
Tesla Inc.
Consumer Cyclical
AVGO
Broadcom Inc.
Technology
AMD
Advanced Micro Devices Inc.
Technology
JPM
JPMorgan Chase & Co.
Financials
GS
Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
Financials
BRK-B
Berkshire Hathaway Inc.
Financials
V
Visa Inc.
Financials
MA
Mastercard Inc.
Financials
UNH
UnitedHealth Group Inc.
Healthcare
JNJ
Johnson & Johnson
Healthcare
PG
Procter & Gamble Co.
Consumer Defensive
KO
The Coca-Cola Company
Consumer Defensive
COST
Costco Wholesale Corporation
Consumer Defensive
PM
Philip Morris International Inc.
Consumer Defensive
MO
Altria Group Inc.
Consumer Defensive
PLTR
Palantir Technologies Inc.
Technology
ASML
ASML Holding N.V.
Semiconductors
NVO
Novo Nordisk A/S
Healthcare
TSM
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.
Semiconductors
TSEM
Tower Semiconductor Ltd.
Semiconductors
CRWD
CrowdStrike Holdings Inc.
Technology
RACE
Ferrari N.V.
Consumer Cyclical
ARM
Arm Holdings plc
Semiconductors
APP
AppLovin Corporation
Technology
BKNG
Booking Holdings Inc.
Consumer Cyclical
DKNG
DraftKings Inc.
Consumer Cyclical
FLUT
Flutter Entertainment plc
Consumer Cyclical
INTC
Intel Corporation
Technology
CRM
Salesforce Inc.
Technology
NFLX
Netflix Inc.
Technology
MS
Morgan Stanley
Financials
ABBV
AbbVie Inc.
Healthcare
LLY
Eli Lilly and Company
Healthcare
PFE
Pfizer Inc.
Healthcare
BMY
Bristol-Myers Squibb Company
Healthcare
MRK
Merck & Co. Inc.
Healthcare
AZN
AstraZeneca plc
Healthcare
MRNA
Moderna Inc.
Healthcare
HD
The Home Depot Inc.
Consumer Cyclical
MCD
McDonald's Corporation
Consumer Cyclical
WMT
Walmart Inc.
Consumer Defensive
PEP
PepsiCo Inc.
Consumer Defensive
DIS
The Walt Disney Company
Consumer Cyclical
BA
The Boeing Company
Industrials
CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
Industrials
UBER
Uber Technologies Inc.
Technology
ADBE
Adobe Inc.
Technology
NOW
ServiceNow Inc.
Technology
ANET
Arista Networks Inc.
Technology
CEG
Constellation Energy Corporation
Energy
VRT
Vertiv Holdings Co
Energy
VST
Vistra Corp.
Energy
GEV
GE Vernova Inc.
Energy
MPWR
Monolithic Power Systems Inc.
Energy
CCJ
Cameco Corporation
Energy
SHEL
Shell plc
Energy
CVX
Chevron Corporation
Energy
BP
BP p.l.c.
Energy
XOM
Exxon Mobil Corporation
Energy
EQIX
Equinix, Inc.
Real Estate
SAP
SAP SE
Technology
SPOT
Spotify Technology S.A.
Technology
ABNB
Airbnb Inc.
Consumer Cyclical
PANW
Palo Alto Networks Inc.
Technology
MU
Micron Technology Inc.
Technology
WDC
Western Digital Corporation
Technology
QCOM
Qualcomm Inc.
Technology
MRVL
Marvell Technology Inc.
Technology
SMCI
Super Micro Computer Inc.
Technology
LITE
Lumentum Holdings Inc.
Technology
CRDO
Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd
Technology
ORCL
Oracle Corporation
Technology
DELL
Dell Technologies Inc.
Technology
SNOW
Snowflake Inc.
Technology
IBM
International Business Machines Corporation
Technology
IONQ
IonQ, Inc.
Technology
IQMX
IQM Quantum Computers Oyj
Technology
QBTS
D-Wave Quantum Inc.
Technology
QNT
Quantinuum Inc.
Technology
RGTI
Rigetti Computing, Inc.
Technology
HOOD
Robinhood Markets Inc.
Financials
IBKR
Interactive Brokers Group Inc.
Financials
SOFI
SoFi Technologies Inc.
Financials
COIN
Coinbase Global Inc.
Financials
ARCC
Ares Capital Corporation
Financials
BXSL
Blackstone Secured Lending Fund
Financials
OBDC
Blue Owl Capital Corporation
Financials
FSK
FS KKR Capital Corp
Financials
BAC
Bank of America Corporation
Financials
C
Citigroup Inc.
Financials
COF
Capital One Financial Corporation
Financials
AXP
American Express Company
Financials
SCHW
Charles Schwab Corporation
Financials
PYPL
PayPal Holdings Inc.
Financials
BAESY
BAE Systems plc
Defence
EADSY
Airbus SE
Defence
RYCEY
Rolls-Royce Holdings plc
Defence
RHM.DE
Rheinmetall AG
Defence
THLEF
Thales SA
Defence
LDO.MI
Leonardo S.p.A.
Defence
HAG.DE
Hensoldt AG
Defence
SAABF
Saab AB
Defence
LMT
Lockheed Martin Corporation
Defence
RTX
RTX Corporation
Defence
NOC
Northrop Grumman Corporation
Defence
GD
General Dynamics Corporation
Defence
LHX
L3Harris Technologies Inc.
Defence
KTOS
Kratos Defense & Security Solutions
Defence
HEI
Heico Corporation
Defence
RKLB
Rocket Lab USA Inc.
Defence
BX
Blackstone Inc.
Financials
KKR
KKR & Co. Inc.
Financials
APO
Apollo Global Management Inc.
Financials
ARES
Ares Management Corporation
Financials
CG
The Carlyle Group Inc.
Financials
OWL
Blue Owl Capital Inc.
Financials
WDAY
Workday Inc.
Technology
DDOG
Datadog Inc.
Technology
SHOP
Shopify Inc.
Technology
MDB
MongoDB Inc.
Technology
BBAI
BigBear.ai Holdings Inc.
Technology
MSTR
Strategy (MicroStrategy) Inc.
Technology
STX
Seagate Technology Holdings plc
Technology
SONY
Sony Group Corporation
Technology
PINS
Pinterest Inc.
Communication Services
SNAP
Snap Inc.
Communication Services
RDDT
Reddit Inc.
Communication Services
WBD
Warner Bros. Discovery Inc.
Communication Services
NIO
NIO Inc.
Consumer Cyclical
RIVN
Rivian Automotive Inc.
Consumer Cyclical
XPEV
XPeng Inc.
Consumer Cyclical
F
Ford Motor Company
Consumer Cyclical
TGT
Target Corporation
Consumer Defensive
No tickers match your search.
Run live analysis on any ticker in Asset Lens →