CrowdStrike Holdings Inc. (CRWD) — Quantitative Forecast & Factor Scores
CRWD screens as lower-quality and fairly valued — modest +18% margin of safety leaves limited room for error.
CRWD's quantitative grade is Hold, with elevated downside risk (CVaR -20.2%), and quality metrics (net margin -3%, ROE -4%). CrowdStrike Holdings Inc. (CRWD) trades at $369.58 with a valuation grade of Hold: net margins of -3.4%, a DCF-implied intrinsic range of $298–$578 suggesting a +18% margin of safety, beta 1.12 (moderate risk profile).
Key Takeaways
- Valuation: Hold grade — DCF range $298–$578 implies +18% margin of safety
- Risk: CVaR -20.2% (95th percentile, 1-month) indicates moderate tail exposure; beta of 1.12 amplifies broad market moves in both directions
- Strengths: Size 4.0/5, -3% net margin, -4% ROE dominate the factor profile
- Watch: Monitor earnings delivery — premium multiples leave limited margin for misses
Quantitative Factor Profile
Key Metrics
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Current Price | $369.58 |
| Forward P/E | 59.8x |
| P/S Ratio | 19.5 |
| EV/EBITDA | -1,915.1 |
| Beta | 1.12 |
| Net Margin | -3.4% |
| ROE | -4.1% |
| Debt/Equity | 18.3% |
| CVaR (95%, 1M) | -20.2% |
| Market Cap | $93.7B |
Earnings History
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | $1.10 | $1.12 | +1.6% ✓ |
| Q4 2025 | $0.94 | $0.96 | +2.0% ✓ |
| Q3 2025 | $0.83 | $0.93 | +12.1% ✓ |
| Q2 2025 | $0.66 | $0.73 | +10.6% ✓ |
CRWD vs. Sector Peers
| Ticker | P/E (TTM) | Beta | CVaR-95 | Net Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRWD | — | 1.12 | -20.2% | -3.4% |
| MSFT | 22.3x | 1.11 | -17.0% | 39.0% |
| GOOGL | 25.4x | 1.11 | -10.4% | 32.8% |
| PLTR | 227.1x | 1.74 | -27.5% | 36.3% |
| META | 22.4x | 1.28 | -19.2% | 30.1% |
CRWD shows mixed quality signals in the factor model, at a broadly fair valuation. The four-quarter earnings beat streak is constructive.
With a CVaR of -20.2% on a one-month horizon, the tail risk profile demands disciplined position sizing rather than conviction-driven oversizing. The DCF model implies a +18% margin of safety — the risk/reward is currently skewed to the upside.
Hold means what it says here — I am not selling, but I am not buying either. The risk/reward at current prices is roughly balanced, and roughly balanced is not enough reason to deploy fresh capital. What I watch on this name is earnings consistency — specifically whether delivery against consensus is stable or deteriorating. That is usually where the rating gets confirmed or challenged before the price reflects it. A pullback of 10–15% from here would open the margin of safety enough that I would want to add. An earnings miss at the current multiple would do the opposite — that would be the signal to reduce rather than wait.
Is CRWD a buy, hold, or sell?
CRWD carries a valuation grade of Hold. Our discounted cash flow model produces an intrinsic range of $298–$578 — implying a +18% margin of safety at the current price of $369.58. The width of the DCF range reflects genuine uncertainty in the terminal growth rate assumption: the correct framework is a probability-weighted distribution over scenarios, not a single point estimate.
CRWD has beaten consensus estimates in 100% of recent quarters, signalling strong execution consistency. The most recent quarter delivered a 1.6% earnings surprise. Analyst estimate revisions are trending downward.
What are CRWD's key risk factors?
With a beta of 1.12, CRWD exhibits an above-market risk profile relative to the broad market. The 95th-percentile CVaR of -20.2% on a one-month horizon should inform position sizing directly: at a 10% portfolio weight, this tail event contributes approximately 2.0% of total portfolio loss in the worst 5% of months. Net margins of -3.4% fall below the Technology sector average of 22%, suggesting margin pressure. The balance sheet is conservatively leveraged at 18% debt-to-equity.
A put/call ratio of 0.98 indicates roughly balanced sentiment in the options market. Implied volatility of 52.7% exceeds realized volatility of 47.1% by 6 points, suggesting options are pricing in elevated risk. Insiders have been net sellers to the tune of $366.6M recently. While routine dispositions are common, the magnitude bears watching. Short interest is low at 3.1% of float, suggesting limited bearish conviction.
How does CRWD fit in a diversified portfolio?
At typical HENRY portfolio weights — 10–20% of the equity allocation — CRWD carries a beta of 1.12, meaning it amplifies broad market moves proportionally. The appropriate weight is not a function of conviction alone, but of the full covariance structure across all holdings. See the Ledoit-Wolf covariance framework for the methodology behind these calculations.
As a Technology constituent, CRWD's risk profile should be evaluated alongside sector peers when constructing diversified portfolios.
True portfolio risk is a function of the full covariance structure across all holdings — not individual stock metrics. The Portfolio Health Check quantifies this at the portfolio level: it surfaces hidden concentration, marginal CVaR contributions, and the degree to which your overall allocation deviates from an optimal risk-adjusted mandate. The CRWD analysis here is a single node in that larger structure.
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Launch Live Analysis →This analysis is produced using a systematic quantitative framework applied to market data and does not constitute investment advice. Prose commentary is AI-assisted and generated from structured quantitative inputs. All data and metrics are as of 2026-03-28 and are point-in-time estimates subject to revision without notice. CVaR figures are based on historical simulation and do not guarantee future outcomes. DCF ranges and upgrade/downgrade triggers are forward-looking statements based on current assumptions and may not materialise. Past performance does not guarantee future results. This analysis does not account for individual circumstances, tax position, or investment objectives — consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. This content is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute regulated investment advice under MiFID II or FCA guidelines. This content is not intended for US persons or residents of jurisdictions where its distribution would be contrary to local law or regulation. This service is not directed at residents of Finland, Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Iceland, or Poland. The author may hold long or short positions in securities mentioned in this analysis. Nothing on this page represents a solicitation to buy or sell any security. A.L. Capital Advisory is an independent private advisory practice and is not affiliated with CrowdStrike Holdings Inc.