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Technology · Equity Analysis
Qualcomm Inc. (QCOM) Stock Analysis - DCF Valuation & AI Disruption Risk
By Anton Ladnyi, CFA · ex-Goldman Sachs · ex-J.P. MorganPublished Updated
QCOM — Q3 FY2026 (reported 7/29) revenue $9.95B beat the ~$9.67B Street estimate but fell 4% YoY as handsets dropped 20% to $5.09B on memory-driven cost inflation; non-GAAP EPS $2.21 missed the $2.23 consensus; automotive hit a record $1.59B (+61% YoY, 23rd straight double-digit growth quarter); Q4 guide of $9.7-10.5B revenue / $2.05-2.25 non-GAAP EPS came in below the Street's ~$2.35-2.38 EPS expectation on further Apple-revenue erosion and margin pressure, sending shares down 7.2% after hours to ~$144.53 from a $155.57 close.
Composite rating with analyst overlay — not individualized investment advice.
How Is This Rating Calculated?
A.L. Capital Advisory Equity Composite model · calculated 2026-08-29. Four calculation steps, in order — steps 1, 2 and 4 are rules-based; step 3 is a disclosed qualitative analyst overlay mapped to a fixed numerical scale:
1. Margin of safety → quantitative grade
QCOM's margin of safety is +10.16% (base case $183 vs. price $164.19). Margin of safety here is defined as (fair value − price) / fair value — this is the formula the quant grade below is actually assigned from. It is not the same figure as the gauge's "Upside to Base" pill above, which uses (fair value − price) / price and will read a larger number for the same inputs. For comparison, the pure (unblended) DCF output alone implies a margin of safety of -8.21% (pure DCF base $152 vs. price $164.19) — the gap between this and the +10.16% blended figure above reflects the analyst-consensus blend.
Rules are cumulative (multiple can fire on the same ticker) and purely mechanical — no analyst judgment is involved in step 2.
3. Thesis conviction modifier
Analyst conviction: medium · modifier: +0.00. This is a qualitative analyst judgment on the written thesis, mapped to a fixed numeric modifier below — it is not algorithmically derived from a measurable indicator.
Analyst-conviction modifier scale
Conviction level
Modifier
Very High
+1.00
High
+0.60
Medium
+0.00
Low
-0.60
Very Low
-1.00
General guidance for the assigning analyst (not an algorithmic rule — conviction is assigned by editorial judgment on the written thesis, not computed): Very High/High — multiple thesis pillars confirmed by the most recent reported quarter, no unresolved red flags. Medium — mixed evidence, or a thesis not yet differentiated enough to lean either direction. Low/Very Low — one or more thesis pillars deteriorating, or a material data-quality concern. Assigned and reviewed each time the underlying thesis is updated (see the thesis "last updated" date on this page).
This is the exact formula the model runs — not a post-hoc explanation. Source: composite_grade.py, A.L. Capital Advisory Equity Composite.
QCOM Price Target & Rating
QCOM's composite rating is Hold (quantitative grade: Buy), with elevated downside risk (CVaR -27.5%), and quality metrics (net margin 21%, ROE 34%). Qualcomm Inc. (QCOM) trades at $164.19 with a Hold composite rating and a quantitative grade of Buy: a trailing P/E of 18.8x at a 41% discount to sector median, net margins of 21.0%, a blended fair-value range of $100–$355 suggesting a +10% margin of safety, beta 1.66 (highly aggressive risk profile).
What Is QCOM's DCF Intrinsic Value and Blended Fair Value Range?
QCOM's blended fair-value range is $100–$355 (base case $183), against a current price of $164.19.
QCOM blended fair-value gauge — bear case $100, base case $183, bull case $355, current price $164.19.
Price & DCF data as of
How Does QCOM's Margin of Safety Change as the Price Moves?
Drag to simulate QCOM's price moving between the blended bear ($100) and bull ($355) fair-value anchors — left for a price fall, right for a rise — and see how the margin of safety vs A.L. Capital Advisory's $183 blended base-case fair value changes. Starting point: the page's as-of price of $164.19 on 2026-08-29.
DCF Assumptions
Two-stage earnings-based DCF on forward EPS of $10.20 (Yahoo Finance forwardEps: provider-aggregated next-fiscal-year consensus estimate, not a fixed trailing-12-month window): explicit 5-year forecast at the stage-1 growth rate below, discounted at the CAPM cost of equity, plus a Gordon Growth terminal value at the terminal growth rate, also discounted at the CAPM cost of equity. This model discounts projected EPS — an equity-level metric — directly, not free cash flow, so the cost of equity is the theoretically correct discount rate; this is not a debt-weighted WACC (no cost of debt or capital-structure weighting is applied). Source: A.L. Capital Advisory DCF engine (api.py).
DCF assumptions by scenario
Input
Bear
Base
Bull
Stage-1 (near-term) growth
6.30%
14.00%
21.00%
Terminal growth
3.00%
3.00%
3.00%
CAPM cost of equity (discount rate)
14.74%
13.65%
12.56%
Forecast horizon
5 years
5 years
5 years
CAPM cost of equity = risk-free rate (4.50%, a 4.50% fallback default used because the live 10-year Treasury fetch was unavailable at page-generation time) + beta (1.66) × 5.5% equity risk premium, floored at 6% and capped at 18%. Stage-1 growth is a sector-level base rate (bear/bull apply 0.45x/1.50x multipliers); terminal growth is held constant across scenarios. Bear/bull cost of equity applies a ±8% relative adjustment to the base rate, clamped to the same 6–18% band.
The DCF output above is not the final intrinsic value shown elsewhere on this page. It is blended with the Wall Street analyst consensus price target to avoid extreme single-model divergence, weighted by analyst coverage depth (30 analysts covering this stock → 25.00% DCF / 75.00% consensus). The blended figure is the intrinsic value used for margin-of-safety and the composite rating.
DCF-to-intrinsic-value blend by scenario
Scenario
Pure DCF value
Analyst target used
Blended intrinsic value (displayed)
Bear
$101.90
$100.00
$100.48
Base
$151.73
$193.10
$182.76
Bull
$221.62
$400.00
$355.40
Blended value = (25.00% × pure DCF) + (75.00% × analyst target). Bear/bull scenarios blend against the analyst low/high target rather than the mean.
Analyst-coverage-to-consensus-weight tiers
Analyst coverage
Weight
0–1 analysts
0.00% consensus / 100.00% DCF
2–4 analysts
40.00% consensus / 60.00% DCF
5–19 analysts
65.00% consensus / 35.00% DCF
20+ analysts
75.00% consensus / 25.00% DCF
The consensus weight is a fixed step function of analyst coverage depth (above), not adjusted for target age, dispersion, or outliers — the mean/low/high analyst targets are used as reported by the data provider with no filtering.
Key Takeaways
Valuation: Hold composite rating; Buy quantitative grade — P/E 18.8x — blended fair-value range $100–$355 implies +10% margin of safety
Risk: CVaR -27.5% (95th percentile, 1-month) indicates high tail exposure; beta of 1.66 amplifies broad market moves in both directions
Strengths: Quality 4.0/5, Size 4.0/5, 21% net margin, 34% ROE dominate the factor profile
Catalyst: Q4 FY2026 earnings expected early November 2026 — test of whether the $9.7-10.5B revenue / $2.05-2.25 EPS guide is met, whether September 1 price hikes stabilize margins, and first data-center custom-silicon revenue recognition in the December quarter
Bear catalyst: Q4 FY2026 guidance is missed or cut further; handset revenue decline exceeds 20% YoY for a second consecutive quarter; data center revenue recognition slips past the December quarter; price hikes fail to stabilize non-GAAP margins
QCOM — Quantitative SnapshotAugust 2026
RatingHold
Price$164.19
Why HoldBalanced risk/reward — neither compellingly cheap nor expensive at current levels
Main riskHigh tail risk — CVaR -27.5% on a one-month horizon
Tail riskCVaR -27.5% over one month at the 95th percentile
Blended fair-value range$100–$355 blended fair-value range; margin of safety +10%
Best useCore large-cap Technology holding — not a source of diversified sector exposure
Next watchEarnings surprise deceleration trend — monitor next quarter delivery closely
How Does QCOM Score on the Five-Factor Quantitative Model?
QCOM's composite five-factor score is 3.5/5, led by Value (4.5/5) and weakest on Volatility (2.0/5).
QCOM five-factor radar — Value 4.5, Quality 4.0, Momentum 3.0, Volatility 2.0, Size 4.0 (out of 5).
Value
4.5 / 5
Quality
4.0 / 5
Momentum
3.0 / 5
Volatility
2.0 / 5
Size
4.0 / 5
QCOM Five-Factor Quantitative Scores
Factor
Score
Value
4.5 / 5
Quality
4.0 / 5
Momentum
3.0 / 5
Volatility
2.0 / 5
Size
4.0 / 5
What Is QCOM's AI-Era Durability and Disruption Risk?
AI Disruption Risk: Elevated
Qualcomm's durability case now rests on diversification away from a shrinking Apple relationship: at its June 2026 Investor Day the company laid out a data-center AI accelerator roadmap projecting revenue from roughly $300 million in fiscal 2026 to $5 billion in fiscal 2027 and over $15 billion by fiscal 2029, while automotive revenue hit a record $1.6 billion in fiscal Q3 2026 (up 61% year-over-year). The near-term risk is concrete and already crystallizing: CEO Cristiano Amon disclosed on July 29, 2026 that Apple-related chip revenue will fall roughly 50% sequentially into the December quarter as Apple's in-house C2 modem rolls out faster than modeled, with Qualcomm's iPhone component share heading toward zero by 2027 (an annual hit estimated near $6-8 billion including licensing). The trigger to watch is whether the two hyperscaler customers management says will each generate over $1 billion in custom silicon revenue in fiscal 2027 actually convert on schedule.
Key Metrics
QCOM Key Metrics — Qualcomm Inc. 2026
Metric
Value
Current Price
$164.19
P/E Ratio (TTM)
18.8x
Forward P/E
16.1x
P/S Ratio
4.0
EV/EBITDA
15.0
Beta
1.66
Net Margin
21.0%
ROE
33.8%
Debt/Equity
55.2%
Dividend Yield
2.23%
CVaR (95%, 1M)
-27.5%
Market Cap
$175.4B
1-Month CVaR Methodology
The 1M CVaR-95 figure shown in Key Metrics, the peer comparison table and this page's hero card is computed as follows:
Lookback: most recent 1 year of daily prices.
Return input: daily log returns on dividend/split-adjusted close prices.
Confidence level: 95% (worst 5% of the resulting rolling-month observations).
Quantile convention: floor-based cutoff — the worst floor(N × 0.05) rolling-month observations (minimum 1), not a rounded or interpolated percentile.
CVaR: arithmetic mean of that worst-5% tail, expressed as a percentage.
Corporate actions: reflected via adjusted-close pricing (dividends and splits are accounted for).
1M CVaR-95 by lookback window
Method
1M CVaR-95
Trailing 1-year historical
-27.5%
Trailing 3-year historical
-23.5%
Trailing 5-year historical
-21.2%
The 1-year figure is what appears elsewhere on this page. Because it is built from overlapping 21-day windows over a single year, it reflects roughly the last ~11 non-independent tail events and is sensitive to the specific market regime of that year — treat it as a trailing-window historical estimate, not a structurally stable long-run risk parameter. The 3- and 5-year figures use the same methodology over longer, more regime-diverse histories.
This is a separate calculation from the 1-Day VaR/CVaR shown in the Tail Risk Profile chart below, which uses raw (non-overlapping) daily returns rather than rolling monthly sums — see that chart's own methodology note for the daily-horizon convention.
Tail Risk Profile
Historical Simulation · Daily Log Returns
QCOM — Daily Return Distribution
Qualcomm Inc. · 249 trading days · CVaR illustrated on real data
Sep 2025 – Aug 2026
Daily log returns
95%
-5.00%
1-Day VaR · 95%
95th-percentile loss threshold
-8.03%
1-Day CVaR · 95%
Avg loss in tail
12
Days in tail
of 249 sessions
249
Daily returns
Sep 2025 – Aug 2026
Historical VaR uses the nearest-rank convention: the worst observation within the tail (empirical (1−confidence) fraction of trading days). Historical CVaR is the arithmetic mean of all observations at or below that VaR threshold — so VaR is always included inside the CVaR tail, not one observation outside it.
Anton Ladnyi, CFA · A.L. Capital AdvisoryUpdated 2026-08-29
Rating Rationale
QCOM — Q3 FY2026 (reported 7/29) revenue $9.95B beat the ~$9.67B Street estimate but fell 4% YoY as handsets dropped 20% to $5.09B on memory-driven cost inflation; non-GAAP EPS $2.21 missed the $2.23 consensus; automotive hit a record $1.59B (+61% YoY, 23rd straight double-digit growth quarter); Q4 guide of $9.7-10.5B revenue / $2.05-2.25 non-GAAP EPS came in below the Street's ~$2.35-2.38 EPS expectation on further Apple-revenue erosion and margin pressure, sending shares down 7.2% after hours to ~$144.53 from a $155.57 close.
Investment Thesis
↑ Bull Case
Automotive revenue hit a record $1.59B (+61% YoY), the 23rd consecutive quarter of double-digit growth, and management raised the automotive annualized run-rate outlook to ~$7B — the most de-risked, fastest-scaling non-handset segment in the portfolio
Data center revenue from the two disclosed custom-silicon engagements is set to begin in the December quarter with wafers already in production, and HBC Gen 1 completed tape-out ahead of its mid-2027 launch target — the FY2029 >$15B data-center target now has a concrete near-term revenue on-ramp rather than remaining purely roadmap
Management guided non-handset revenue growth (including data center) to accelerate sharply, from 24% in FY2026 to over 60% in FY2027, and reaffirmed the $40B FY2029 non-handset revenue target alongside an expanded BMW deal making Qualcomm the lead compute-silicon provider for next-gen ADAS/cockpit programs into the next decade
IoT revenue grew 9% to $1.83B, lifting combined non-handset QCT sales 28% — diversification away from handsets is showing up in the actual segment mix, not just management commentary
Qualcomm returned $2.3B to shareholders in the quarter ($1.4B buybacks, $973M dividends) and announced chip price hikes effective September 1 to offset wafer/memory/packaging cost inflation, directly addressing the margin pressure that drove the post-earnings selloff
Modular acquisition closed during the quarter, giving Qualcomm the developer-ecosystem/software-stack piece of its full-stack AI strategy alongside the Dragonfly C1000 hardware roadmap
↓ Bear Case
Q4 FY2026 guidance of $2.05-2.25 non-GAAP EPS came in well below the Street's ~$2.35-2.38 expectation, driven by a sharp reduction in anticipated Apple-related revenue and continuing margin headwinds — this is the second consecutive quarter the market has reacted negatively despite a revenue beat, echoing the AMD/pattern of 'beat but guide/margin disappoints'
Handset revenue fell 20% YoY to $5.09B on memory-driven cost inflation and softer demand — the largest single QCT sub-segment is still shrinking even as automotive and IoT scale, meaning blended growth depends on non-handset segments continuing to outrun a declining core
Shares fell 7.2% after hours to ~$144.53 despite the top-line beat, confirming the market is now pricing Qualcomm on forward margin/guide quality rather than rewarding revenue beats alone — a materially different bar than the bull case assumed at the June Investor Day highs near $210
Data center revenue is still pre-revenue in any meaningful sense (starting December quarter from just two engagements) — the FY2029 $15B target requires multi-year flawless execution with essentially no current-quarter proof point beyond the HBC Gen 1 tape-out milestone
Chip price hikes effective September 1 are a direct acknowledgment that input-cost inflation (wafer, memory, packaging) is structural enough to require passing costs to customers — a lever that works until customers push back or competitors underprice Qualcomm on the same node
Custom ASIC competition from Broadcom, Marvell, and Google's TPU teams continues to intensify against Qualcomm's still-nascent data center ambitions
What Changes the Rating
↑Catalyst:Q4 FY2026 EPS comes in at or above the high end of the $2.05-2.25 guide; automotive run-rate exceeds the raised ~$7B outlook; December-quarter data center revenue recognition is confirmed on schedule; a second hyperscaler ASIC customer is disclosed
↓Model downgrade conditions:Q4 FY2026 guidance is missed or cut further; handset revenue decline exceeds 20% YoY for a second consecutive quarter; data center revenue recognition slips past the December quarter; price hikes fail to stabilize non-GAAP margins
Anton’s personal note
Hold means what it says here — I am not selling, but I am not buying either. The risk/reward at current prices is roughly balanced, and roughly balanced is not enough reason to deploy fresh capital. What I watch on this name is earnings consistency — specifically whether delivery against consensus is stable or deteriorating. That is usually where the rating gets confirmed or challenged before the price reflects it. A pullback of 10–15% from here would open the margin of safety enough that I would want to add. An earnings miss at the current multiple would do the opposite — that would be the signal to reduce rather than wait.
— Anton Ladnyi, CFA
Earnings History
QCOM Earnings History — EPS Surprise Rate 2026
Quarter
EPS Est. (consensus)
EPS Actual (adjusted, consensus basis)
Surprise
Q2 2026
$2.22
$2.21
-0.5% ✗
Q1 2026
$2.56
$2.65
+3.3% ✓
Q4 2025
$3.40
$3.50
+2.9% ✓
Q3 2025
$2.88
$3.00
+4.3% ✓
EPS Actual is on the same adjusted/non-GAAP basis as the consensus estimate it is compared against (excludes one-time items, consistent with how Wall Street EPS estimates are typically constructed) — it will generally differ from the company's GAAP diluted EPS as reported in its official financial statements. Verify the GAAP figure against the issuer's original earnings release if that basis is what you need.
How Has QCOM Performed vs. Wall Street EPS Estimates?
QCOM has beaten consensus EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 reported quarters (75%).
QCOM quarterly EPS — estimate vs. actual, 4 most recent reported quarters, 75% beat rate.
Earnings Projections
QCOM Forward EPS Consensus Estimates 2026
Quarter
EPS Est.
YoY EPS
Analysts
Q3 2026
$2.16
-28.0%
27
Q4 2026
$2.30
-34.4%
27
Q1 2027
~$3.86
+45.7%
30
Q2 2027
~$2.55
+15.4%
34
~ Estimated from annual consensus — not a direct analyst survey
What Are Wall Street's EPS Estimates for QCOM?
Wall Street's next-quarter consensus EPS estimate for QCOM is $2.16.
QCOM consensus EPS estimates, next quarter $2.16, 4 quarters shown.
QCOM — P/E 18.8x · Beta 1.66 • Composite rating: Hold · Quantitative grade: Buy • CVaR from one-year daily history · historical simulation
Editorial Analyst Scenarios
Revenue growth × exit multiple (editorial, not mechanically reproducible from disclosed inputs) · hover each scenario for detail · current price $164.19
▼
Bear Case
$110
-33.0%
Implied NTM P/E: 10.1x (target ÷ next-4Q consensus EPS — distinct from the exit multiple below, which is applied to a later-year EPS estimate)
8% revenue CAGR · 14x exit multiple
◆
Base Case
$190
+15.7%
Implied NTM P/E: 17.5x (target ÷ next-4Q consensus EPS — distinct from the exit multiple below, which is applied to a later-year EPS estimate)
16% revenue CAGR · 18x exit multiple
▲
Bull Case
$270
+64.4%
Implied NTM P/E: 24.8x (target ÷ next-4Q consensus EPS — distinct from the exit multiple below, which is applied to a later-year EPS estimate)
24% revenue CAGR · 22x exit multiple
How Correlated Is QCOM With Its Sector Peers?
1 of 10 peer pairs correlated above 0.60, indicating meaningful historical diversification across the selected names, although all remain exposed to common equity, sector and macro factors.
QCOM pairwise correlation heatmap across 5 peers — 1 of 10 pairs above 0.60.
1 of 10 peer pairs correlated above 0.60, indicating meaningful historical diversification across the selected names, although all remain exposed to common equity, sector and macro factors.
Extended Analysis — Buy, Hold or Sell? Risk Factors. Portfolio Fit.
Is QCOM a buy, hold, or sell?
QCOM carries a quantitative grade of Buy. At a trailing P/E of 18.8, the stock trades at a 41% discount to the Technology sector median of 32.0x. Our two-stage, EPS-based DCF model produces a pure model range of $102–$222. After blending with Street consensus targets, the displayed fair-value range is $100–$355 — implying a +10% margin of safety vs. blended base fair value at the current price of $164.19. The width of the range reflects genuine uncertainty in the terminal growth rate assumption: the correct framework is a probability-weighted distribution over scenarios, not a single point estimate. See the DCF valuation framework for full methodology.
The company has beaten estimates in 75% of the last 4 reported quarters. The most recent quarter missed by a 49.0% earnings surprise. Analyst estimate revisions are trending upward.
What are QCOM's key risk factors?
With a beta of 1.66, QCOM exhibits a highly aggressive risk profile relative to the broad market. The 95th-percentile CVaR of -27.5% on a one-month horizon should inform position sizing directly: at a 10% portfolio weight, this standalone tail outcome corresponds to approximately 2.8% of portfolio value before accounting for correlations with other holdings — not a marginal portfolio CVaR contribution, which depends on the full covariance structure. Net margins stand at 21.0%. Return on equity of 33.8% indicates highly efficient capital allocation. The balance sheet is conservatively leveraged at 55% debt-to-equity.
Insiders have been net sellers to the tune of $55.5M over the disclosed transactions from 2024-11-20 to 2026-08-21. While routine dispositions are common, the magnitude bears watching. Short interest is low at 3.5% of float, suggesting limited bearish conviction.
How does QCOM fit in a diversified portfolio?
At typical HENRY portfolio weights — 10–20% of the equity allocation — QCOM carries a beta of 1.66, meaning it amplifies broad market moves proportionally. The appropriate weight is not a function of conviction alone, but of the full covariance structure across all holdings. See the Ledoit-Wolf covariance framework for the methodology behind these calculations.
Among closely correlated names, QCOM shows the strongest co-movement with ADI (0.55), MRVL (0.43), TXN (0.43). Investors seeking diversification should note these correlation dynamics when constructing multi-asset portfolios.
True portfolio risk is a function of the full covariance structure across all holdings — not individual stock metrics. The Portfolio Health Check quantifies this at the portfolio level: it surfaces hidden concentration, marginal CVaR contributions, and the degree to which your overall allocation deviates from an optimal risk-adjusted mandate. The QCOM analysis here is a single node in that larger structure.
What is QCOM's AI-Era Durability & Disruption Risk Score?
Qualcomm's durability case now rests on diversification away from a shrinking Apple relationship: at its June 2026 Investor Day the company laid out a data-center AI accelerator roadmap projecting revenue from roughly $300 million in fiscal 2026 to $5 billion in fiscal 2027 and over $15 billion by fiscal 2029, while automotive revenue hit a record $1.6 billion in fiscal Q3 2026 (up 61% year-over-year). The near-term risk is concrete and already crystallizing: CEO Cristiano Amon disclosed on July 29, 2026 that Apple-related chip revenue will fall roughly 50% sequentially into the December quarter as Apple's in-house C2 modem rolls out faster than modeled, with Qualcomm's iPhone component share heading toward zero by 2027 (an annual hit estimated near $6-8 billion including licensing). The trigger to watch is whether the two hyperscaler customers management says will each generate over $1 billion in custom silicon revenue in fiscal 2027 actually convert on schedule.
What is QCOM's intrinsic value and DCF price target?
A.L. Capital Advisory's model produces a blended fair-value range (25% pure DCF, 75% analyst consensus) of $100 (bear case) to $355 (bull case) for Qualcomm Inc. (QCOM). At $164.19, the margin of safety vs. blended base case is +10% (positive = discount to fair value; negative = premium). The bear-to-bull spread reflects genuine sensitivity to the two dominant DCF inputs: the terminal growth rate and the CAPM cost of equity (this model discounts EPS, an equity-level metric, so the cost of equity rather than a debt-weighted WACC is the applicable discount rate). Terminal value typically accounts for 60-80% of total intrinsic value in most equity DCF models, which is why a range is more analytically sound than a point estimate. The central analytical question is not what the DCF outputs as a single number but which growth trajectory the current market price already discounts. All DCF analysis follows CFA Institute standards and is conducted by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory. Full methodology: DCF Valuation Framework →
Is QCOM a buy or sell in 2026?
Qualcomm Inc. (QCOM) carries a Hold composite rating from A.L. Capital Advisory, consisting of a Buy quantitative grade plus an analyst-conviction overlay. The quantitative grade is set by margin-of-safety band; the overlay is an additive analyst adjustment disclosed in the page's rating-calculation breakdown. Five-factor model scoring (Value, Quality, Momentum, Volatility, Size) and CVaR tail-risk measurement are shown separately on the page and are not inputs to this specific composite-rating formula. At $164.19, the margin of safety vs. blended base fair value is +10% (blended fair-value range: $100 bear – $355 bull). That places the current price in the Fair Range zone of A.L. Capital Advisory's DCF framework, which sets the quantitative grade component before the analyst-conviction overlay is applied. Composite factor score: 3.5/5. Strongest factor: Value (4.5/5). Weakest factor: Volatility (2.0/5). Trailing P/E: 18.8x. Analysis by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory. Full methodology: Rating Methodology (this page) →
What is the average analyst target price for QCOM?
Wall Street consensus target for QCOM: $193.10 (+17.6% upside from the current price of $164.19). The analyst target range spans $100.00 (most bearish) to $400.00 (most bullish). Consensus recommendation: Hold. Note that analyst price targets typically reflect a 12-month forward horizon and are derived from a blend of DCF, comparable-company, and sum-of-the-parts analysis. A.L. Capital Advisory's Hold composite rating is calculated from the blended margin-of-safety grade, applicable automatic fundamental penalties, and a disclosed qualitative analyst-conviction overlay — not from five-factor scores or CVaR, which are supporting diagnostics shown elsewhere on this page. The displayed blended fair value combines the standalone DCF output with Street consensus for well-covered names (see the DCF Assumptions box for the exact blend weight), so it does not track Street consensus mechanically, but it is not fully independent of it either. When the composite rating and the Street consensus recommendation diverge, the divergence itself is informative: it can reflect differences in time horizon, valuation methodology, or the degree to which the current price already discounts the consensus case. Analysis by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory. Full methodology: Data & Sources (this page) →
How does QCOM score on Value, Quality, Momentum, Volatility, and Size?
QCOM five-factor scores (A.L. Capital Advisory, 1–5 scale): Value 4.5/5 (strong) — measures the trailing P/E multiple versus the sector median (not the DCF or blended fair-value range, which are separate metrics on this page); Quality 4.0/5 (above average) — captures profitability metrics including return on equity (ROE: 33.8%) and net margin (21.0%) — sustained above-peer ROE and margins are the model's proxy for economic moat and pricing power; Momentum 3.0/5 (neutral) — reflects recent price trajectory and earnings surprise consistency; Volatility 2.0/5 (below average) — inverse measure derived from beta, where lower historical volatility earns a higher score; Size 4.0/5 (above average) — market capitalisation rank (mega-cap $1T+ scores 5/5). Composite: 3.5/5. Factor scores above 4.0 signal a tailwind in that dimension; below 2.0 signals a material headwind. Analysis by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory.
What is QCOM's tail risk and CVaR?
The 95th-percentile Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) for QCOM on a one-month horizon is -27.5%. CVaR represents the expected average loss in the worst 5% of monthly outcomes — a more conservative tail risk measure than standard VaR, which only marks the loss threshold. Beta of 1.66 indicates above-market systematic sensitivity with amplified drawdown exposure — beta measures historical sensitivity to market moves, not total volatility. For reference, a diversified S&P 500 ETF carries a one-month CVaR of roughly -8% to -12% in normal market conditions; individual equity CVaR is higher due to idiosyncratic risk. At the portfolio level, what matters is the marginal CVaR contribution of each holding — not its standalone figure. The A.L. Capital Advisory Portfolio Health Check quantifies each position's marginal tail-risk contribution across your entire holdings. Analysis by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory. Full methodology: CVaR & Tail-Risk Methodology →
What would trigger a rating upgrade or downgrade for QCOM?
Upgrade trigger: A price pullback that opens the margin of safety beyond +15% (approximately $85 based on the DCF bear case). Downgrade trigger: a sustained reversal in the Quality and Momentum factor scores for two or more consecutive quarters. These triggers are reassessed each time the underlying fundamentals, price, or earnings data refresh — the current Hold rating is not held on a fixed review calendar. Analysis by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory. Full methodology: Rating Methodology (this page) →
Does QCOM consistently beat earnings estimates?
QCOM has beaten consensus EPS estimates in 3 of the 4 most recently reported quarters (75%) — indicating consistent delivery across the latest 4 reported quarters. The most recent reported quarter missed consensus by 49.0%. Sustained above-consensus delivery supports both the Momentum and Quality factor scores and provides a tailwind to the current rating. Across the 4 most recently reported quarters with valid consensus data, a beat rate above 70% signals consistent execution in this model, while a rate below 50% typically corresponds to a Momentum factor score of 3.0/5 or below. Earnings surprise magnitude and direction are incorporated into the Momentum and Quality dimensions of the five-factor scoring model. Analysis by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory. Full methodology: Earnings History (this page) →
How does QCOM contribute to portfolio risk and diversification?
QCOM carries a beta of 1.66 (high-volatility / growth-sensitive relative to the broad equity market). A beta above 1.0 means the position amplifies market moves in both directions at a typical portfolio weight. Strongest peer co-movement: ADI (0.55), MRVL (0.43), TXN (0.43). Holding QCOM alongside these names in the same portfolio increases concentration risk. True portfolio risk is a function of the full covariance structure — a single stock's beta does not reveal its marginal contribution to portfolio tail loss. The A.L. Capital Advisory Portfolio Health Check quantifies concentration risk (Herfindahl-Hirschman Index), pairwise correlations, and marginal CVaR contribution across all your holdings. If a single position such as this one makes up an outsized share of your net worth — employer stock, RSUs, or concentrated equity compensation — a Strategic Session builds the sequencing plan and the written allocation that follows from it. Analysis by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory. Full methodology: Ledoit-Wolf Covariance Framework →
What quantitative methodology does A.L. Capital Advisory use to analyse QCOM?
A.L. Capital Advisory analyses Qualcomm Inc. (QCOM) using a four-part quantitative research framework grounded in CFA Institute standards (not all four parts feed the composite rating formula directly — see below). (1) DCF Valuation: a two-stage earnings-based DCF that projects EPS (not free cash flow) under bear and bull assumptions, discounts at the CAPM cost of equity (the applicable rate for an equity-level metric like EPS, not a debt-weighted WACC) to produce an intrinsic value range with margin-of-safety calculation. (2) Five-Factor Scoring: each equity is scored 1–5 on Value, Quality, Momentum, Volatility, and Size. (3) CVaR Tail Risk: 95th-percentile Conditional Value at Risk from historical simulation of daily returns on a one-month horizon. (4) Earnings Surprise Analysis: quarterly beat rate and magnitude, shown for context alongside the factor scores. The current Hold composite rating for QCOM is calculated separately from this broader framework: it consists of a Buy quantitative grade, any automatic fundamental penalty, and a disclosed qualitative analyst-conviction overlay — see this page's Rating Methodology section for the exact formula. Five-factor scoring, CVaR and earnings surprise analysis below are supporting research diagnostics shown separately on this page; they are not direct numerical inputs into this specific composite-rating calculation. Analysis by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory. Full methodology: DCF Valuation Framework → · CVaR & Tail-Risk Methodology →
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Retrieved 2026-08-29T11:03:00+00:00 (UTC); see per-quarter analyst counts in Earnings Forecast; individual target ages/dates are not disclosed by the data provider
Most recent exchange settlement date on file with the data provider (exact settlement date not exposed by the provider's API; retrieved 2026-08-29T11:03:00+00:00 UTC)
[6] DCF valuation, five-factor model & composite rating
Calculated 2026-08-29T11:03:00+00:00 (UTC); see Rating Methodology above for the exact formula
Hand-authored thesis commentary (bull/bear case, catalysts, AI-Era Durability Score narrative) is cross-checked against the company's own investor-relations disclosures at time of writing; figures presented as A.L. Capital Advisory estimates are proprietary forecasts, not company guidance, unless explicitly attributed to the issuer.
Market-session status above is derived from the page's UTC generation time using standard NYSE hours (9:30am–4:00pm ET regular session); it does not account for US market holidays and may be inaccurate on those dates.
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Legal Disclaimer & Important Notices
This analysis is produced using a systematic quantitative framework applied to market data and does not constitute investment advice. Prose commentary is AI-assisted and generated from structured quantitative inputs. All data and metrics are as of 2026-08-29 and are point-in-time estimates subject to revision without notice. CVaR figures are based on historical simulation and do not guarantee future outcomes. DCF ranges and upgrade/downgrade triggers are forward-looking statements based on current assumptions and may not materialise. Past performance does not guarantee future results. This analysis does not account for individual circumstances, tax position, or investment objectives — consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. This content is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute regulated investment advice under MiFID II or FCA guidelines. This content is not intended for US persons or residents of jurisdictions where its distribution would be contrary to local law or regulation. This service is not directed at residents of Finland, Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Iceland, or Poland. The author may hold long or short positions in securities mentioned in this analysis. Nothing on this page represents a solicitation to buy or sell any security. A.L. Capital Advisory is an independent private advisory practice and is not affiliated with Qualcomm Inc.
CFA Portfolio Advisory — QCOM
Discuss this analysis, position sizing, or your full portfolio mandate with Anton Ladnyi, CFA.
