Oracle Corporation (ORCL) Stock Analysis — Price Target, Hold Rating & DCF Valuation (2026)
ORCL screens as high-quality and fairly valued — DCF model implies a +38% margin of safety at current levels.
ORCL's quantitative grade is Hold, with elevated downside risk (CVaR -32.2%), and quality metrics (net margin 25%, ROE 58%). Oracle Corporation (ORCL) trades at $175.06 with a valuation grade of Hold: a trailing P/E of 31.4x at a 2% discount to sector median, net margins of 25.3%, a DCF-implied intrinsic range of $137–$346 suggesting a +38% margin of safety, beta 1.60 (highly aggressive risk profile).
Key Takeaways
- Valuation: Hold grade — P/E 31.4x — DCF range $137–$346 implies +38% margin of safety
- Risk: CVaR -32.2% (95th percentile, 1-month) indicates moderate tail exposure; beta of 1.60 amplifies broad market moves in both directions
- Strengths: Quality 5.0/5, Size 4.5/5, 25% net margin, 58% ROE dominate the factor profile
- Watch: Monitor earnings delivery — premium multiples leave limited margin for misses
Quantitative Factor Profile
Key Metrics
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Current Price | $175.06 |
| P/E Ratio (TTM) | 31.4x |
| Forward P/E | 22.0x |
| P/S Ratio | 7.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 23.0 |
| Beta | 1.60 |
| Net Margin | 25.3% |
| ROE | 57.6% |
| Debt/Equity | 415.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.14% |
| CVaR (95%, 1M) | -32.2% |
| Market Cap | $503.5B |
Earnings History
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | $1.69 | $1.79 | +5.7% ✓ |
| Q4 2025 | $1.64 | $2.26 | +38.0% ✓ |
| Q3 2025 | $1.48 | $1.47 | -0.6% ✗ |
| Q2 2025 | $1.64 | $1.70 | +3.4% ✓ |
ORCL vs. Sector Peers
| Ticker | P/E (TTM) | Beta | CVaR-95 | Net Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORCL | 31.4x | 1.60 | -32.2% | 25.3% |
| MSFT | 26.5x | 1.11 | -17.0% | 39.0% |
| GOOGL | 31.6x | 1.13 | -10.8% | 32.8% |
| AMZN | 34.9x | 1.38 | -16.6% | 10.8% |
| SAP | 25.2x | 0.76 | -19.4% | 19.5% |
ORCL screens as an exceptional-quality business, at a broadly fair valuation. Three of the last four quarters beat consensus — execution is solid, with improving surprise magnitude (+5.7% most recently).
ORCL trades at 31.4x trailing earnings, in line with the sector. The DCF model implies a +38% margin of safety — the risk/reward is currently skewed to the upside.
Hold means what it says here — I am not selling, but I am not buying either. The risk/reward at current prices is roughly balanced, and roughly balanced is not enough reason to deploy fresh capital. The tail risk is the thing. A CVaR of -32.2% is not a number to dismiss — it means in bad months this position can move severely, and that has to be reflected in how much you size it, not just whether you own it at all. A pullback of 10–15% from here would open the margin of safety enough that I would want to add. An earnings miss at the current multiple would do the opposite — that would be the signal to reduce rather than wait.
Is ORCL a buy, hold, or sell?
ORCL carries a valuation grade of Hold. The trailing P/E of 31.4 sits broadly in line with the Technology sector median of 32.0x. Our discounted cash flow model produces an intrinsic range of $137–$346 — implying a +38% margin of safety at the current price of $175.06. The width of the DCF range reflects genuine uncertainty in the terminal growth rate assumption: the correct framework is a probability-weighted distribution over scenarios, not a single point estimate. See the DCF valuation framework for full methodology.
The company has beaten estimates in 75% of recent quarters. The most recent quarter delivered a 5.7% earnings surprise. Analyst estimate revisions are trending upward.
What are ORCL's key risk factors?
With a beta of 1.60, ORCL exhibits a highly aggressive risk profile relative to the broad market. The 95th-percentile CVaR of -32.2% on a one-month horizon should inform position sizing directly: at a 10% portfolio weight, this tail event contributes approximately 3.2% of total portfolio loss in the worst 5% of months. Net margins stand at 25.3%. Return on equity of 57.6% indicates highly efficient capital allocation. Debt-to-equity of 415% warrants monitoring for leverage risk.
At 0.38, the put/call ratio skews bullish, with call buyers dominating recent flow. Implied and realized volatility are roughly aligned at 61.3% and 62.9% respectively. Insiders have been net sellers to the tune of $1713.5M recently. While routine dispositions are common, the magnitude bears watching. Short interest is low at 1.6% of float, suggesting limited bearish conviction.
How does ORCL fit in a diversified portfolio?
At typical HENRY portfolio weights — 10–20% of the equity allocation — ORCL carries a beta of 1.60, meaning it amplifies broad market moves proportionally. The appropriate weight is not a function of conviction alone, but of the full covariance structure across all holdings. See the Ledoit-Wolf covariance framework for the methodology behind these calculations.
As a Technology constituent, ORCL's risk profile should be evaluated alongside sector peers when constructing diversified portfolios.
True portfolio risk is a function of the full covariance structure across all holdings — not individual stock metrics. The Portfolio Health Check quantifies this at the portfolio level: it surfaces hidden concentration, marginal CVaR contributions, and the degree to which your overall allocation deviates from an optimal risk-adjusted mandate. The ORCL analysis here is a single node in that larger structure.
For analysis of the structural AI infrastructure capex cycle driving demand for ORCL — see our thematic deep-dive: The $7 Trillion Race: AI Infrastructure as a Decade-Long Investment Cycle.
Investor FAQ
Is ORCL a buy or sell in 2026?
Oracle Corporation (ORCL) carries a Hold quantitative rating from A.L. Capital Advisory, derived from Discounted Cash Flow intrinsic value analysis, five-factor model scoring (Value, Quality, Momentum, Volatility, Size), and CVaR tail risk measurement. At $175.06, the DCF midpoint margin of safety is +38% (intrinsic value range: $137 bear – $346 bull). Composite factor score: 3.5/5. Strongest factor: Quality (5.0/5). Weakest factor: Volatility (2.0/5). Trailing P/E: 31.4x. Rating by Anton Ladnyi, CFA Charterholder (ex-Goldman Sachs Equity Research, ex-J.P. Morgan Wealth Management), A.L. Capital Advisory, Berlin. Full methodology: Portfolio Construction Framework →
What is the average analyst target price for ORCL?
Wall Street consensus target for ORCL: $243.87 (+39.3% upside from the current price of $175.06). The analyst target range spans $155.00 (most bearish) to $400.00 (most bullish). Consensus recommendation: Buy. Note that analyst price targets typically reflect a 12-month forward horizon and are derived from a blend of DCF, comparable-company, and sum-of-the-parts analysis. A.L. Capital Advisory’s quantitative Hold rating is produced independently — from DCF intrinsic value, five-factor model scores, and CVaR tail risk — and does not mechanically track Street consensus. When the two diverge, the divergence itself is informative: it can reflect differences in time horizon, valuation methodology, or the degree to which the current price already discounts the consensus case. Analysis by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory. Full methodology: Monte Carlo Simulation Framework →
How does ORCL score on Value, Quality, Momentum, Volatility, and Size?
ORCL five-factor scores (A.L. Capital Advisory, 1–5 scale): Value 3.0/5 (neutral) — measures current price versus DCF intrinsic range and trailing earnings multiples; Quality 5.0/5 (strong) — captures profitability metrics including return on equity, net margin (ROE: 57.6%) and net margin (25.3%); Momentum 3.0/5 (neutral) — reflects recent price trajectory and earnings surprise consistency; Volatility 2.0/5 (below average) — inverse measure derived from beta, where lower historical volatility earns a higher score; Size 4.5/5 (strong) — market capitalisation rank (mega-cap $1T+ scores 5/5). Composite: 3.5/5. Factor scores above 4.0 signal a tailwind in that dimension; below 2.0 signals a material headwind. Analysis by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory. Full methodology: Black-Litterman Model →
What is ORCL's tail risk and CVaR?
The 95th-percentile Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) for ORCL on a one-month horizon is -32.2%. CVaR represents the expected average loss in the worst 5% of monthly outcomes — a more conservative tail risk measure than standard VaR, which only marks the loss threshold. Beta of 1.60 indicates above-market volatility with amplified drawdown exposure. For reference, a diversified S&P 500 ETF carries a one-month CVaR of roughly -8% to -12% in normal market conditions; individual equity CVaR is higher due to idiosyncratic risk. At the portfolio level, what matters is the marginal CVaR contribution of each holding — not its standalone figure. The A.L. Capital Advisory Portfolio Health Check quantifies each position's marginal tail-risk contribution across your entire holdings. Analysis by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory. Full methodology: CVaR & Tail-Risk Methodology →
What is ORCL's intrinsic value and DCF price target?
A.L. Capital Advisory's DCF model produces an intrinsic value range of $137 (bear case) to $346 (bull case) for Oracle Corporation (ORCL). At $175.06, the midpoint margin of safety is +38% (positive = discount to intrinsic mid; negative = premium). The bear-to-bull spread reflects genuine sensitivity to the two dominant DCF inputs: the terminal growth rate and WACC. Terminal value typically accounts for 60-80% of total intrinsic value in most equity DCF models, which is why a range is more analytically sound than a point estimate. The central analytical question is not what the DCF outputs as a single number but which growth trajectory the current market price already discounts. All DCF analysis follows CFA Institute standards and is conducted by Analysis by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory. Full methodology: DCF Valuation Framework →
What would trigger a rating upgrade or downgrade for ORCL?
Upgrade trigger: A price pullback that opens the margin of safety beyond +15% (approximately $117 based on the DCF bear case). Downgrade trigger: An earnings miss at current valuations (31.4x trailing P/E) where there is limited earnings cushion to absorb negative surprises; or a sustained reversal in the Quality and Momentum factor scores for two or more consecutive quarters. Analysis by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory. Full methodology: Investment Policy Statement Framework →
Does ORCL consistently beat earnings estimates?
ORCL has beaten consensus EPS estimates in 75% of tracked quarterly periods — indicating consistent delivery. The most recent reported quarter beat consensus by 5.7%. Sustained above-consensus delivery supports both the Momentum and Quality factor scores and provides a tailwind to the current rating. Earnings surprise magnitude and direction are incorporated into the Momentum and Quality dimensions of the five-factor scoring model. Analysis by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory. Full methodology: DCF Valuation Framework →
How does ORCL contribute to portfolio risk and diversification?
ORCL carries a beta of 1.60 (high-volatility / growth-sensitive relative to the broad equity market). A beta above 1.0 means the position amplifies market moves in both directions at a typical portfolio weight. True portfolio risk is a function of the full covariance structure — a single stock's beta does not reveal its marginal contribution to portfolio tail loss. The A.L. Capital Advisory Portfolio Health Check quantifies concentration risk (Herfindahl-Hirschman Index), pairwise correlations, and marginal CVaR contribution across all your holdings. Analysis by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory. Full methodology: Ledoit-Wolf Covariance Framework →
What quantitative methodology does A.L. Capital Advisory use to analyse ORCL?
A.L. Capital Advisory analyses Oracle Corporation (ORCL) using a four-component quantitative framework grounded in CFA Institute standards. (1) DCF Valuation: projects free cash flows under bear and bull assumptions, discounts at WACC to produce an intrinsic value range with margin-of-safety calculation. (2) Five-Factor Scoring: each equity is scored 1–5 on Value, Quality, Momentum, Volatility, and Size. (3) CVaR Tail Risk: 95th-percentile Conditional Value at Risk from historical simulation of daily returns on a one-month horizon. (4) Earnings Surprise Analysis: quarterly beat rate and magnitude are incorporated into the Momentum and Quality factor scores. The current Hold rating for ORCL is the output of applying this complete framework to current data. All analysis is conducted personally by Anton Ladnyi, CFA Charterholder (ex-Goldman Sachs Equity Research, ex-J.P. Morgan Wealth Management), founder of A.L. Capital Advisory, Berlin. CFA Charter: https://credentials.cfainstitute.org/5ff4f4bf-f1e6-4ca7-9ab2-aaed50ec2e43 Full methodology: DCF Valuation Framework → · CVaR & Tail-Risk Methodology →
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This analysis is produced using a systematic quantitative framework applied to market data and does not constitute investment advice. Prose commentary is AI-assisted and generated from structured quantitative inputs. All data and metrics are as of 2026-04-20 and are point-in-time estimates subject to revision without notice. CVaR figures are based on historical simulation and do not guarantee future outcomes. DCF ranges and upgrade/downgrade triggers are forward-looking statements based on current assumptions and may not materialise. Past performance does not guarantee future results. This analysis does not account for individual circumstances, tax position, or investment objectives — consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. This content is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute regulated investment advice under MiFID II or FCA guidelines. This content is not intended for US persons or residents of jurisdictions where its distribution would be contrary to local law or regulation. This service is not directed at residents of Finland, Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Iceland, or Poland. The author may hold long or short positions in securities mentioned in this analysis. Nothing on this page represents a solicitation to buy or sell any security. A.L. Capital Advisory is an independent private advisory practice and is not affiliated with Oracle Corporation.
