Technology · Equity Analysis

Oracle Corporation (ORCL) Stock Analysis - Price Target, Hold Rating & DCF Valuation (2026)

By Anton Ladnyi, CFA · ex-Goldman Sachs · ex-J.P. Morgan Published 2026-04-20 Updated 2026-07-16

ORCL — AI cloud compounder — Q4 FY2026 beat (rev $19.2B +21%, OCI +93% to $5.8B, RPO $638B +363% YoY, FY2027 $90B guide confirmed, non-GAAP EPS raised to $8.05 vs $8.01 est); stock -10-13% post-earnings on $70B FY2027 capex + $40B new debt/equity raise ($20B ATM equity), then rebounded 6%; Microsoft $3B cloud deal reportedly collapsed (FedRAMP, June 16) — Oracle denied; consensus Buy avg PT $252; next earnings Sept 14.

ORCL Price Target & Rating

ORCL's quantitative grade is Hold, with significant tail risk (CVaR -44.1%), and quality metrics (net margin 25%, ROE 53%). Oracle Corporation (ORCL) trades at $132.49 with a valuation grade of Hold: a trailing P/E of 21.9x at a 31% discount to sector median, net margins of 25.4%, a DCF-implied intrinsic range of $143–$357 suggesting a +89% margin of safety, beta 1.71 (highly aggressive risk profile).

DCF Valuation Range

Key Takeaways

Valuation: Hold grade — P/E 21.9x — DCF range $143–$357 implies +89% margin of safety
Risk: CVaR -44.1% (95th percentile, 1-month) indicates moderate tail exposure; beta of 1.71 amplifies broad market moves in both directions
Strengths: Quality 5.0/5, Size 4.5/5, 25% net margin, 53% ROE dominate the factor profile
Catalyst: Q1 FY2027 earnings September 14, 2026 — test of $90B run-rate (+27-29% guide) and OCI +57-63% cloud growth; $40B debt+equity raise execution and $20B ATM equity issuance pace; FedRAMP public cloud certification timeline disclosure; OpenAI OCI workload expansion announcement
Bear catalyst: Q1 FY27 revenue misses $90B annual pace OR OCI growth decelerates below 70% YoY; FCF outlook worsens beyond -$30B TTM; equity ATM issuance accelerates dilution above $25B in FY2027; OpenAI begins migrating RPO workloads to competitor cloud

ORCL — Quantitative Snapshot July 2026

RatingHold

Price$132.49

Why HoldBalanced risk/reward — neither compellingly cheap nor expensive at current levels

Main riskElevated tail risk — CVaR -44.1% on a one-month horizon

Tail riskCVaR -44.1% over one month at the 95th percentile

DCF range$143–$357 intrinsic range; margin of safety +89%

Best useCore large-cap Technology holding — not a source of diversified sector exposure

Next watchEarnings delivery consistency and margin trajectory

Quantitative Factor Profile

Value: 4.5 / 5
Quality: 5.0 / 5
Momentum: 3.0 / 5
Volatility: 2.0 / 5
Size: 4.5 / 5

Key Metrics

ORCL Key Metrics — Oracle Corporation 2026
Metric	Value
Current Price	$132.49
P/E Ratio (TTM)	21.9x
Forward P/E	12.1x
PEG Ratio	0.55x
P/S Ratio	5.7
EV/EBITDA	17.1
Beta	1.71
Net Margin	25.4%
ROE	53.4%
Debt/Equity	388.9%
Dividend Yield	1.56%
CVaR (95%, 1M)	-44.1%
Market Cap	$381.6B

Tail Risk Profile

Historical Simulation · Daily Log Returns

ORCL — Daily Return Distribution

Oracle Corporation · 250 trading days · CVaR illustrated on real data

Jul 2025 – Jul 2026 Daily log returns

Confidence level 95%

-6.00%

VaR · 95%

Max-loss threshold

-7.50%

CVaR · 95%

Avg loss in tail

Days in tail

of 250 sessions

250

Daily returns

Jul 2025 – Jul 2026

ℹ️

Risk Framework · A.L. Capital Advisory

CVaR & Tail-Risk Methodology

Why variance understates downside risk in non-normal distributions — and how CVaR corrects that blind spot

→

Analyst View

Anton Ladnyi, CFA · A.L. Capital Advisory Updated 2026-07-16

Rating Rationale

Investment Thesis

↑ Bull Case

Q4 FY2026: revenue $19.18B +21% YoY (vs $19.10B est), adj EPS $2.03 vs $1.96 est; cloud $9.91B +47%; OCI IaaS +93% — acceleration every quarter of FY2026 (55%->68%->84%->93%); FY2026 full year: revenue $67.36B (+17.35%), earnings $16.98B (+36.49%); operating CF $32B (+54%, record)
RPO $638B (+363% YoY, +$85B in Q4 alone); OpenAI alone >half of RPO per reports; 4 clients contracted >$8B each in Q4; CFO guided 12% of RPO recognized as revenue in next 12 months (~$76.5B near-term revenue visibility)
FY2027 revenue $90B confirmed, non-GAAP EPS raised to $8.05 (vs $8.01 est); Q1 FY2027 guide: revenue +27-29%, adj EPS $1.72-1.76 (vs $1.68 est) — ahead of consensus, acceleration not deceleration; cloud revenue Q1 FY2027: +57-63% in constant currency
Q1 FY2027: CEO plans to bring ~1 GW of new compute capacity online — roughly equal to all of FY2026 combined; three major partnerships announced June 11: OpenAI on OCI, Google Cloud multicloud products, NVIDIA RTX PRO 6000 GPUs on OCI; OCI UAE Central (Abu Dhabi) region launched; OCI model agnostic (Cohere, Alibaba Qwen, Google Gemma)
Long-term targets reiterated: +31% revenue CAGR and +28% EPS CAGR through FY2030; Bernstein raised PT to $325 (Outperform); DA Davidson raised to $225 (Buy); consensus 34-35 analysts Buy (~82%), avg PT $252-$263; high PT $400 (Guggenheim)
Customer prepayment model ($75B+ cumulative) offsets external capex; ERP install base 10,000+ enterprises; AI-embedded ERP and Autonomous Database differentiation; government cloud FedRAMP IL-6 (separate secure gov cloud) and healthcare verticals gaining share

↓ Bear Case

Capex surged 162% to $55.7B in FY2026; $70B net capex planned for FY2027 with $40B additional financing ($20B equity ATM already launched + $20B debt); FCF -$23.7B in FY2026; stock fell 10-13% on June 11 despite earnings beat — market pricing in capex ROI execution risk
Microsoft $3B Oracle Cloud Infrastructure deal reportedly collapsed over FedRAMP/security compliance gap (June 16): Oracle public cloud lacks FedRAMP cert for regulated workloads; Oracle called details "inaccurate" June 17; but design philosophy clash (shared responsibility vs Oracle-controlled stack) is real; ORCL -1.5% and MSFT -2.3% on the day
New cloud contract disclosed via SEC filing drove +3.9% briefly; Cramer cautioned "people buying for something they should not be" — contract not incremental to $90B FY2027 guidance; Scotiabank lowered PT to $241 from $290; Morgan Stanley maintains Equal Weight at $207
RPO concentration risk: OpenAI accounts for >half of $638B RPO; prepayment/customer-GPU model untested at scale; revenue recognition lag from massive RPO could disappoint quarterly prints vs the backlog narrative; avg analyst PT revised down 13% over past 3 months reflecting capex/financing concerns
OCI market share still sub-5% vs AWS/Azure/GCP; $20B+ equity ATM dilutive to existing shareholders; $43B raised in debt+equity in FY2026 + $40B more in FY2027 = $83B in 2 years of financing
Database business faces structural headwinds from open-source alternatives; Larry Ellison concentrated control limits governance safeguards; low PT $155-$160 (RBC) signals downside scenario from capex overhang if AI demand softens

What Changes the Rating

↑ Catalyst: OCI quarterly revenue crosses $8B run-rate AND Q1 FY27 beats +29% guide; RPO-to-revenue conversion rate exceeds 12% near-term guidance; fifth major AI infrastructure client contract announced; FedRAMP public cloud cert achieved

↓ Stop / exit: Q1 FY27 revenue misses $90B annual pace OR OCI growth decelerates below 70% YoY; FCF outlook worsens beyond -$30B TTM; equity ATM issuance accelerates dilution above $25B in FY2027; OpenAI begins migrating RPO workloads to competitor cloud

Anton’s personal note

Hold means what it says here — I am not selling, but I am not buying either. The risk/reward at current prices is roughly balanced, and roughly balanced is not enough reason to deploy fresh capital. The tail risk is the thing. A CVaR of -44.1% is not a number to dismiss — it means in bad months this position can move severely, and that has to be reflected in how much you size it, not just whether you own it at all. A pullback of 10–15% from here would open the margin of safety enough that I would want to add. An earnings miss at the current multiple would do the opposite — that would be the signal to reduce rather than wait.

— Anton Ladnyi, CFA

Earnings History

ORCL Earnings History — EPS Surprise Rate 2026
Quarter	EPS Est.	EPS Actual	Surprise
Q2 2026	$1.96	$2.11	+7.5% ✓
Q1 2026	$1.69	$1.79	+5.7% ✓
Q4 2025	$1.64	$2.26	+38.0% ✓
Q3 2025	$1.48	$1.47	-0.6% ✗

Quarterly EPS — Estimate vs Actual

Earnings Projections

ORCL Forward EPS Consensus Estimates 2026
Quarter	EPS Est.	YoY EPS	Analysts
Q3 2026	$1.74	+18.4%	33
Q4 2026	$1.89	-16.5%	32
Q1 2027	~$2.31	+29.0%	42
Q2 2027	~$2.73	+29.4%	40
~ Estimated from annual consensus — not a direct analyst survey

Earnings Projections — Consensus EPS Estimates

ORCL vs. Sector Peers

ORCL Peer Valuation Comparison 2026
Ticker	P/E (TTM)	Fwd P/E	Beta	CVaR-95	Net Margin
ORCL	21.9x	12.1x	1.71	-44.1%	25.4%
MSFT	22.9x	20.4x	1.13	-17.8%	39.3%
GOOGL	27.4x	25.4x	1.25	-11.8%	37.9%
AMZN	29.6x	25.8x	1.46	-16.8%	12.2%
SAP	21.9x	16.1x	0.74	-19.7%	19.6%

DCF Scenario Analysis

Hover each scenario for detail · current price $132.49

▼

Bear Case

$145

+9.4%

Fwd P/E: 16.7x

8% revenue CAGR · 18 exit multiple

◆

Base Case

$265

+100.0%

Fwd P/E: 30.6x

14% revenue CAGR · 25 exit multiple

▲

Bull Case

$400

+201.9%

Fwd P/E: 46.2x

22% revenue CAGR · 33 exit multiple

Pairwise Correlation Matrix

1 of 10 peer pairs correlated above 0.60 — diversification benefit within this cluster is structurally limited.

Extended Analysis — Buy, Hold or Sell? Risk Factors. Portfolio Fit.

Is ORCL a buy, hold, or sell?

ORCL carries a valuation grade of Hold. At a trailing P/E of 21.9, the stock trades at a 31% discount to the Technology sector median of 32.0x. Our discounted cash flow model produces an intrinsic range of $143–$357 — implying a +89% margin of safety at the current price of $132.49. The width of the DCF range reflects genuine uncertainty in the terminal growth rate assumption: the correct framework is a probability-weighted distribution over scenarios, not a single point estimate. See the DCF valuation framework for full methodology.

With a 9% beat rate on recent quarters, earnings predictability has been mixed. The most recent quarter delivered a 7.5% earnings surprise. Analyst estimate revisions are trending upward.

What are ORCL's key risk factors?

With a beta of 1.71, ORCL exhibits a highly aggressive risk profile relative to the broad market. The 95th-percentile CVaR of -44.1% on a one-month horizon should inform position sizing directly: at a 10% portfolio weight, this tail event contributes approximately 4.4% of total portfolio loss in the worst 5% of months. Net margins stand at 25.4%. Return on equity of 53.4% indicates highly efficient capital allocation. Debt-to-equity of 389% warrants monitoring for leverage risk.

Implied volatility of 2.9% is below realized volatility of 47.4%, potentially making options relatively cheap. Insiders have been net sellers to the tune of $1452.0M recently. While routine dispositions are common, the magnitude bears watching. Short interest is low at 2.4% of float, suggesting limited bearish conviction.

How does ORCL fit in a diversified portfolio?

At typical HENRY portfolio weights — 10–20% of the equity allocation — ORCL carries a beta of 1.71, meaning it amplifies broad market moves proportionally. The appropriate weight is not a function of conviction alone, but of the full covariance structure across all holdings. See the Ledoit-Wolf covariance framework for the methodology behind these calculations.

Among closely correlated names, ORCL shows the strongest co-movement with MSFT (0.40), SAP (0.21), GOOGL (0.17). Investors seeking diversification should note these correlation dynamics when constructing multi-asset portfolios.

True portfolio risk is a function of the full covariance structure across all holdings — not individual stock metrics. The Portfolio Health Check quantifies this at the portfolio level: it surfaces hidden concentration, marginal CVaR contributions, and the degree to which your overall allocation deviates from an optimal risk-adjusted mandate. The ORCL analysis here is a single node in that larger structure.

For analysis of the structural AI infrastructure capex cycle driving demand for ORCL — see our thematic deep-dive: The $7 Trillion Race: AI Infrastructure as a Decade-Long Investment Cycle.

Investor FAQ

Is ORCL a buy or sell in 2026?

Oracle Corporation (ORCL) carries a Hold quantitative rating from A.L. Capital Advisory, derived from Discounted Cash Flow intrinsic value analysis, five-factor model scoring (Value, Quality, Momentum, Volatility, Size), and CVaR tail risk measurement. At $132.49, the DCF midpoint margin of safety is +89% (intrinsic value range: $143 bear – $357 bull). Composite factor score: 3.8/5. Strongest factor: Quality (5.0/5). Weakest factor: Volatility (2.0/5). Trailing P/E: 21.9x. Analysis by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory. Full methodology: Portfolio Construction Framework →

What is the average analyst target price for ORCL?

Wall Street consensus target for ORCL: $251.85 (+90.1% upside from the current price of $132.49). The analyst target range spans $155.00 (most bearish) to $400.00 (most bullish). Consensus recommendation: Buy. Note that analyst price targets typically reflect a 12-month forward horizon and are derived from a blend of DCF, comparable-company, and sum-of-the-parts analysis. A.L. Capital Advisory’s quantitative Hold rating is produced independently — from DCF intrinsic value, five-factor model scores, and CVaR tail risk — and does not mechanically track Street consensus. When the two diverge, the divergence itself is informative: it can reflect differences in time horizon, valuation methodology, or the degree to which the current price already discounts the consensus case. Analysis by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory. Full methodology: Monte Carlo Simulation Framework →

How does ORCL score on Value, Quality, Momentum, Volatility, and Size?

ORCL five-factor scores (A.L. Capital Advisory, 1–5 scale): Value 4.5/5 (strong) — measures current price versus DCF intrinsic range and trailing earnings multiples; Quality 5.0/5 (strong) — captures profitability metrics including return on equity, net margin (ROE: 53.4%) and net margin (25.4%); Momentum 3.0/5 (neutral) — reflects recent price trajectory and earnings surprise consistency; Volatility 2.0/5 (below average) — inverse measure derived from beta, where lower historical volatility earns a higher score; Size 4.5/5 (strong) — market capitalisation rank (mega-cap $1T+ scores 5/5). Composite: 3.8/5. Factor scores above 4.0 signal a tailwind in that dimension; below 2.0 signals a material headwind. Analysis by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory. Full methodology: Black-Litterman Model →

What is ORCL's tail risk and CVaR?

The 95th-percentile Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) for ORCL on a one-month horizon is -44.1%. CVaR represents the expected average loss in the worst 5% of monthly outcomes — a more conservative tail risk measure than standard VaR, which only marks the loss threshold. Beta of 1.71 indicates above-market volatility with amplified drawdown exposure. For reference, a diversified S&P 500 ETF carries a one-month CVaR of roughly -8% to -12% in normal market conditions; individual equity CVaR is higher due to idiosyncratic risk. At the portfolio level, what matters is the marginal CVaR contribution of each holding — not its standalone figure. The A.L. Capital Advisory Portfolio Health Check quantifies each position's marginal tail-risk contribution across your entire holdings. Analysis by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory. Full methodology: CVaR & Tail-Risk Methodology →

What is ORCL's intrinsic value and DCF price target?

A.L. Capital Advisory's DCF model produces an intrinsic value range of $143 (bear case) to $357 (bull case) for Oracle Corporation (ORCL). At $132.49, the midpoint margin of safety is +89% (positive = discount to intrinsic mid; negative = premium). The bear-to-bull spread reflects genuine sensitivity to the two dominant DCF inputs: the terminal growth rate and WACC. Terminal value typically accounts for 60-80% of total intrinsic value in most equity DCF models, which is why a range is more analytically sound than a point estimate. The central analytical question is not what the DCF outputs as a single number but which growth trajectory the current market price already discounts. All DCF analysis follows CFA Institute standards and is conducted by Analysis by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory. Full methodology: DCF Valuation Framework →

What would trigger a rating upgrade or downgrade for ORCL?

Upgrade trigger: A price pullback that opens the margin of safety beyond +15% (approximately $121 based on the DCF bear case). Downgrade trigger: An earnings miss at current valuations (21.9x trailing P/E) where there is limited earnings cushion to absorb negative surprises; or a sustained reversal in the Quality and Momentum factor scores for two or more consecutive quarters. Analysis by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory. Full methodology: Investment Policy Statement Framework →

Does ORCL consistently beat earnings estimates?

ORCL has beaten consensus EPS estimates in 9% of tracked quarterly periods — indicating inconsistent delivery. The most recent reported quarter beat consensus by 7.5%. Below-average earnings consistency is a primary headwind to the rating and a key watch item in the quantitative model. Earnings surprise magnitude and direction are incorporated into the Momentum and Quality dimensions of the five-factor scoring model. Analysis by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory. Full methodology: DCF Valuation Framework →

How does ORCL contribute to portfolio risk and diversification?

ORCL carries a beta of 1.71 (high-volatility / growth-sensitive relative to the broad equity market). A beta above 1.0 means the position amplifies market moves in both directions at a typical portfolio weight. Strongest peer co-movement: MSFT (0.40), SAP (0.21), GOOGL (0.17). Holding ORCL alongside these names in the same portfolio increases concentration risk. True portfolio risk is a function of the full covariance structure — a single stock's beta does not reveal its marginal contribution to portfolio tail loss. The A.L. Capital Advisory Portfolio Health Check quantifies concentration risk (Herfindahl-Hirschman Index), pairwise correlations, and marginal CVaR contribution across all your holdings. Analysis by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory. Full methodology: Ledoit-Wolf Covariance Framework →

What quantitative methodology does A.L. Capital Advisory use to analyse ORCL?

A.L. Capital Advisory analyses Oracle Corporation (ORCL) using a four-component quantitative framework grounded in CFA Institute standards. (1) DCF Valuation: projects free cash flows under bear and bull assumptions, discounts at WACC to produce an intrinsic value range with margin-of-safety calculation. (2) Five-Factor Scoring: each equity is scored 1–5 on Value, Quality, Momentum, Volatility, and Size. (3) CVaR Tail Risk: 95th-percentile Conditional Value at Risk from historical simulation of daily returns on a one-month horizon. (4) Earnings Surprise Analysis: quarterly beat rate and magnitude are incorporated into the Momentum and Quality factor scores. The current Hold rating for ORCL is the output of applying this complete framework to current data. Analysis by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory. Full methodology: DCF Valuation Framework → · CVaR & Tail-Risk Methodology →

Stress-Test This View Live

Run ORCL in Asset Lens

Live DCF valuation, Monte Carlo simulation, options flow intelligence, and full factor decomposition — updated in real time. Free, no account required.

Launch Live Analysis →

Portfolio Tool · Free

Analyse Your Full Portfolio

Upload your complete holdings and receive a quantitative risk profile — correlation structure, factor exposures, CVaR contribution by position, and overall portfolio efficiency score.

Advisory Service · €150

Portfolio Health Check

A personalised, human-delivered PDF diagnostic of your portfolio — covariance analysis, concentration risk, and a written mandate recommendation signed by Anton Ladnyi.

Valuation Framework

DCF Valuation Framework

Why terminal value drives 60–80% of equity intrinsic value — the mechanics behind P/E, EV/EBITDA, and how a 1% WACC shift moves high-multiple tech stocks ~25%.

Portfolio Framework

Portfolio Construction Under Parameter Uncertainty

A Bayesian Framework for Strategic Asset Allocation — how tail risk, estimation error, and parameter uncertainty shape optimal portfolio design.

Allocation Framework

Black-Litterman Model

The Bayesian allocation model from Goldman Sachs — how equilibrium market returns are combined with explicit investor views to produce stable, diversified portfolios.

Market Intelligence · May 2026

Prediction Markets 2026 — The $1T Distribution Race

$51B→$1T by 2030 (Bernstein). HOOD, COIN & IBKR own the distribution moat. Full CFA-grade thesis: revenue models, regulatory risk framework, FIFA catalyst, and conviction ratings.

Market Intelligence

The $7 Trillion AI Infrastructure Race

How the $6.7T data centre build-out maps across five investor archetypes — identifying high-conviction positions in hardware, power, and infrastructure layers.

Market Intelligence

Private Equity Under Pressure

Rising rates, compressed multiples, and a backlog of exits are reshaping PE returns — where the asymmetric opportunity lies for patient capital in 2026.

Anton Ladnyi, CFA

Founder & Portfolio Architect — A.L. Capital Advisory

Ex-Goldman Sachs Equity Research · Ex-J.P. Morgan Wealth Management · CFA Charterholder

CFA Charter ↗ CFA L1 ↗ CFA L2 ↗ CFA L3 ↗ LinkedIn ↗ X ↗

Legal Disclaimer & Important Notices

This analysis is produced using a systematic quantitative framework applied to market data and does not constitute investment advice. Prose commentary is AI-assisted and generated from structured quantitative inputs. All data and metrics are as of 2026-07-16 and are point-in-time estimates subject to revision without notice. CVaR figures are based on historical simulation and do not guarantee future outcomes. DCF ranges and upgrade/downgrade triggers are forward-looking statements based on current assumptions and may not materialise. Past performance does not guarantee future results. This analysis does not account for individual circumstances, tax position, or investment objectives — consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. This content is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute regulated investment advice under MiFID II or FCA guidelines. This content is not intended for US persons or residents of jurisdictions where its distribution would be contrary to local law or regulation. This service is not directed at residents of Finland, Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Iceland, or Poland. The author may hold long or short positions in securities mentioned in this analysis. Nothing on this page represents a solicitation to buy or sell any security. A.L. Capital Advisory is an independent private advisory practice and is not affiliated with Oracle Corporation.