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Industrials · Equity Analysis
Saab AB (SAABF) Stock Analysis - DCF Valuation & AI Disruption Risk
By Anton Ladnyi, CFA · ex-Goldman Sachs · ex-J.P. MorganPublished Updated
SAABF — Q2 2026 results (reported July 17): organic sales growth 29.8%, EBIT +41% to SEK 2,794M, order bookings SEK 68,393M driven by the SEK 47B Poland submarine order, backlog now SEK 317.7B — an exceptionally strong print that extends the record-backlog, valuation-dislocation thesis.
Composite rating with analyst overlay — not individualized investment advice.
How Is This Rating Calculated?
A.L. Capital Advisory Equity Composite model · calculated 2026-08-29. Four calculation steps, in order — steps 1, 2 and 4 are rules-based; step 3 is a disclosed qualitative analyst overlay mapped to a fixed numerical scale:
1. Margin of safety → quantitative grade
SAABF's margin of safety is -94.64% (base case $35 vs. price $67.55). Margin of safety here is defined as (fair value − price) / fair value — this is the formula the quant grade below is actually assigned from. It is not the same figure as the gauge's "Upside to Base" pill above, which uses (fair value − price) / price and will read a larger number for the same inputs. For comparison, the pure (unblended) DCF output alone implies a margin of safety of -94.61% (pure DCF base $35 vs. price $67.55) — the gap between this and the -94.64% blended figure above reflects the analyst-consensus blend.
Blended valuation margin-of-safety bands
Margin of safety
Quant grade
Score
MOS > 20.00%
Strong Buy
5.0
10.00% < MOS ≤ 20.00%
Buy
4.0
−10.00% < MOS ≤ 10.00%
Hold
3.0
−20.00% < MOS ≤ −10.00%
Reduce
2.0
MOS ≤ −20.00%
Avoid
1.0
2. Auto fundamental penalty
No fundamental red flags triggered · total: +0.0
Automatic fundamental-penalty rules
Rule
Threshold
Penalty
P/E extreme
Forward (or trailing) P/E > 80x
−1.0
P/E elevated
Forward (or trailing) P/E 50–80x
−0.5
Earnings deterioration, significant
Earnings growth < −20%
−1.0
Earnings deterioration, mild
Earnings growth −5% to −20%
−0.5
Stagnant top-line
Revenue growth < 3%
−0.5
Unsustainable dividend
Payout ratio > 120%
−0.5
Rules are cumulative (multiple can fire on the same ticker) and purely mechanical — no analyst judgment is involved in step 2.
3. Thesis conviction modifier
Analyst conviction: very high · modifier: +1.00. This is a qualitative analyst judgment on the written thesis, mapped to a fixed numeric modifier below — it is not algorithmically derived from a measurable indicator.
Analyst-conviction modifier scale
Conviction level
Modifier
Very High
+1.00
High
+0.60
Medium
+0.00
Low
-0.60
Very Low
-1.00
General guidance for the assigning analyst (not an algorithmic rule — conviction is assigned by editorial judgment on the written thesis, not computed): Very High/High — multiple thesis pillars confirmed by the most recent reported quarter, no unresolved red flags. Medium — mixed evidence, or a thesis not yet differentiated enough to lean either direction. Low/Very Low — one or more thesis pillars deteriorating, or a material data-quality concern. Assigned and reviewed each time the underlying thesis is updated (see the thesis "last updated" date on this page).
Rating sensitivity: without the +1.00 analyst-conviction overlay, SAABF would score 1.00 and carry a Avoid rating instead of Reduce. The overlay is the deciding factor between these two ratings.
This is the exact formula the model runs — not a post-hoc explanation. Source: composite_grade.py, A.L. Capital Advisory Equity Composite.
SAABF Price Target & Rating
SAABF's composite rating is Reduce (quantitative grade: Avoid), with elevated downside risk (CVaR -20.5%), and quality metrics (net margin 8%, ROE 16%). Saab AB (SAABF) trades at $67.55 with a Reduce composite rating and a quantitative grade of Avoid: a trailing P/E of 48.6x at a 121% premium to sector median, net margins of 8.0%, a blended fair-value range of $26–$46 suggesting a -95% margin of safety, beta 0.03 (defensive risk profile).
What Is SAABF's DCF Intrinsic Value and Blended Fair Value Range?
SAABF's blended fair-value range is $26–$46 (base case $35), against a current price of $67.55.
SAABF blended fair-value gauge — bear case $26, base case $35, bull case $46, current price $67.55.
Price & DCF data as of
How Does SAABF's Margin of Safety Change as the Price Moves?
Drag to simulate SAABF's price moving between the blended bear ($26) and bull ($46) fair-value anchors — left for a price fall, right for a rise — and see how the margin of safety vs A.L. Capital Advisory's $35 blended base-case fair value changes. Starting point: the page's as-of price of $67.55 on 2026-08-29.
DCF Assumptions
Two-stage earnings-based DCF on trailing EPS of $1.39 (trailing reported EPS, used only when no forward consensus estimate is available): explicit 5-year forecast at the stage-1 growth rate below, discounted at the CAPM cost of equity, plus a Gordon Growth terminal value at the terminal growth rate, also discounted at the CAPM cost of equity. This model discounts projected EPS — an equity-level metric — directly, not free cash flow, so the cost of equity is the theoretically correct discount rate; this is not a debt-weighted WACC (no cost of debt or capital-structure weighting is applied). Source: A.L. Capital Advisory DCF engine (api.py).
DCF assumptions by scenario
Input
Bear
Base
Bull
Stage-1 (near-term) growth
3.15%
7.00%
10.50%
Terminal growth
2.20%
2.20%
2.20%
CAPM cost of equity (discount rate)
7.83%
7.25%
6.67%
Forecast horizon
5 years
5 years
5 years
CAPM cost of equity = risk-free rate (4.50%, a 4.50% fallback default used because the live 10-year Treasury fetch was unavailable at page-generation time) + beta (0.50) × 5.5% equity risk premium, floored at 6% and capped at 18%. Stage-1 growth is a sector-level base rate (bear/bull apply 0.45x/1.50x multipliers); terminal growth is held constant across scenarios. Bear/bull cost of equity applies a ±8% relative adjustment to the base rate, clamped to the same 6–18% band.
No analyst-consensus blend applied to this ticker (insufficient analyst coverage) — the DCF output above is the intrinsic value used for margin-of-safety and the composite rating.
Key Takeaways
Valuation: Reduce composite rating; Avoid quantitative grade — P/E 48.6x — blended fair-value range $26–$46 implies -95% margin of safety
Risk: CVaR -20.5% (95th percentile, 1-month) indicates elevated tail exposure; beta of 0.03 amplifies broad market moves in both directions
Strengths: 8% net margin, 16% ROE dominate the factor profile
Catalyst: Canada GlobalEye formal contract award (H2 2026); Ukraine E/F purchase contract fully signed and export permits secured; Comand AI integration milestones; production rate confirmation toward 25+ aircraft/year.
Why ReduceModestly above estimated intrinsic value — risk/reward skewed to the downside at current price; watch for a pullback to the Hold boundary
Main riskPremium multiple (48.6x P/E) demands consistent delivery
Tail riskCVaR -20.5% over one month at the 95th percentile
Blended fair-value range$26–$46 blended fair-value range; margin of safety -95%
Best useCore large-cap Industrials holding — not a source of diversified sector exposure
Next watchEarnings delivery and valuation re-rating catalysts
How Does SAABF Score on the Five-Factor Quantitative Model?
SAABF's composite five-factor score is 3.2/5, led by Volatility (5.0/5) and weakest on Value (2.0/5).
SAABF five-factor radar — Value 2.0, Quality 3.0, Momentum 3.0, Volatility 5.0, Size 3.0 (out of 5).
Value
2.0 / 5
Quality
3.0 / 5
Momentum
3.0 / 5
Volatility
5.0 / 5
Size
3.0 / 5
SAABF Five-Factor Quantitative Scores
Factor
Score
Value
2.0 / 5
Quality
3.0 / 5
Momentum
3.0 / 5
Volatility
5.0 / 5
Size
3.0 / 5
What Is SAABF's AI-Era Durability and Disruption Risk?
AI Disruption Risk: Moderate
Saab's durability case is built on record backlog scale and a real pivot of R&D toward autonomy: order backlog hit SEK 318 billion at Q2 2026, driven by Polish submarine and Ukrainian Gripen contracts, while internally funded R&D reached SEK 4.4 billion (5.0% of sales, more than double the level three years ago), explicitly directed at autonomy, distributed sensors and AI-based command-and-control -- concrete programs include MQ-9B-based unmanned airborne early warning, unmanned CB90 vessels, and the Nimbrix counter-UAS system. Saab has chosen to partner with rather than compete against the software-native disruptors, striking a technology collaboration with Helsing for AI-driven autonomy instead of building a proprietary C2 stack from scratch. The disruption risk is programmatic rather than existential: the T7 trainer program continues to pressure Aeronautics margins, the Naval segment has already taken a write-down tied to the Swedish frigate program, and supply-chain constraints threaten Saab's ability to convert its unusually large backlog into revenue on schedule. Watch whether the Helsing partnership yields a named program win and whether Naval and Aeronautics margins stabilize.
Key Metrics
SAABF Key Metrics — Saab AB 2026
Metric
Value
Current Price
$67.55
P/E Ratio (TTM)
48.6x
Beta
0.03
Net Margin
8.0%
ROE
15.9%
Debt/Equity
28.6%
Dividend Yield
0.40%
CVaR (95%, 1M)
-20.5%
Market Cap
$36.4B
1-Month CVaR Methodology
The 1M CVaR-95 figure shown in Key Metrics, the peer comparison table and this page's hero card is computed as follows:
Lookback: most recent 1 year of daily prices.
Return input: daily log returns on dividend/split-adjusted close prices.
Confidence level: 95% (worst 5% of the resulting rolling-month observations).
Quantile convention: floor-based cutoff — the worst floor(N × 0.05) rolling-month observations (minimum 1), not a rounded or interpolated percentile.
CVaR: arithmetic mean of that worst-5% tail, expressed as a percentage.
Corporate actions: reflected via adjusted-close pricing (dividends and splits are accounted for).
1M CVaR-95 by lookback window
Method
1M CVaR-95
Trailing 1-year historical
-20.5%
Trailing 3-year historical
-14.8%
Trailing 5-year historical
-15.3%
The 1-year figure is what appears elsewhere on this page. Because it is built from overlapping 21-day windows over a single year, it reflects roughly the last ~11 non-independent tail events and is sensitive to the specific market regime of that year — treat it as a trailing-window historical estimate, not a structurally stable long-run risk parameter. The 3- and 5-year figures use the same methodology over longer, more regime-diverse histories.
This is a separate calculation from the 1-Day VaR/CVaR shown in the Tail Risk Profile chart below, which uses raw (non-overlapping) daily returns rather than rolling monthly sums — see that chart's own methodology note for the daily-horizon convention.
Tail Risk Profile
Historical Simulation · Daily Log Returns
SAABF — Daily Return Distribution
Saab AB · 249 trading days · CVaR illustrated on real data
Sep 2025 – Aug 2026
Daily log returns
95%
-4.56%
1-Day VaR · 95%
95th-percentile loss threshold
-5.39%
1-Day CVaR · 95%
Avg loss in tail
12
Days in tail
of 249 sessions
249
Daily returns
Sep 2025 – Aug 2026
Historical VaR uses the nearest-rank convention: the worst observation within the tail (empirical (1−confidence) fraction of trading days). Historical CVaR is the arithmetic mean of all observations at or below that VaR threshold — so VaR is always included inside the CVaR tail, not one observation outside it.
Anton Ladnyi, CFA · A.L. Capital AdvisoryUpdated 2026-08-29
Rating Rationale
SAABF — Q2 2026 results (reported July 17): organic sales growth 29.8%, EBIT +41% to SEK 2,794M, order bookings SEK 68,393M driven by the SEK 47B Poland submarine order, backlog now SEK 317.7B — an exceptionally strong print that extends the record-backlog, valuation-dislocation thesis.
Investment Thesis
↑ Bull Case
Q2 2026 actual: organic sales growth of 29.8% and EBIT up 41% to SEK 2,794M, with order bookings of SEK 68.4B (driven by the SEK 47B Poland submarine order) pushing backlog to a record SEK 317.7B.
Ukraine Gripen deal (May 28, 2026): Sweden approved sale of up to 20 Gripen E/F (SEK 25.2B, €2.5B EU loan financed) + donation of 16 Gripen C/D (SEK 22.2B, conditional on purchase); Zelenskyy confirmed intent for all 150 jets — potentially the largest Gripen order ever
June 2, 2026 orders: US Army Vehicle Tactical Engagement Simulation System; Swedish FMV sensors and C2 for ground-based air defence; Gripen two-seat variant (Brazilian development) rollout
Medium-term organic CAGR target raised from 18% to 22%; Gripen production scaling from 15 to 20-30 aircraft/year; FY2025 revenue SEK 79.15B (+24%), earnings SEK 6.31B (+51%)
CEO Micael Johansson elected President of ASD (European Aerospace & Defence Industry Association); Airbus European CCA partnership targeting German Luftwaffe by 2029
Canada GlobalEye C$5B preferred supplier status (June) with CAE teaming — largest new customer outside Ukraine/EU; C$5B programme for 6 AEW&C aircraft represents Saab's largest-ever non-Swedish defence contract and validates GlobalEye platform globally
Brazil Gripen F rollout (June 2) + 20-aircraft expansion (June 4, SEK pending) brings total Brazil fleet to 56 aircraft (+40% over original 36) — validates two-seat variant market and provides near-term production backlog extension
Comand AI 10% stake €11.1M (June 17) provides equity upside + critical C2/AI capability integration for GlobalEye and multi-domain systems — AI-native C2 moat ahead of peers
↓ Bear Case
Trailing P/E ~43x; Morningstar estimates ~314% market premium to fair value; UBS Buy at SEK 780 vs Morgan Stanley Underweight at SEK 540 — wide analyst divergence on valuation
Ukraine Gripen E/F deliveries not expected until 2030; C/D donations start 2027 — long-dated cash flow with export approval, political, and geopolitical risks
T7 Trainer program (Boeing partnership) continues causing Aeronautics segment margin pressure and R&D amortisation drag
Production capacity: current 15 aircraft/year constrains revenue even with record orders; CEO cited supply chain as #1 challenge
Management changes: Jonas Hjelm departed; COO reorganised; concentrated government customer base
ADR down 39% from 2026 peak at $63 despite Canada GlobalEye win and Ukraine/Colombia contracts — market concerns on execution capacity, integration risk, or macro headwinds are not being offset by positive fundamental momentum; conviction dislocation risk
What Changes the Rating
↑Catalyst:Production rate confirmed at 25+ aircraft/year; second major NATO partner Gripen order (Poland, Finland, or Baltic state); Ukraine E/F contract fully executed
The rating on SAABF is driven by a factor profile that is genuinely mixed — there is no clean narrative here, which is itself a signal worth taking seriously. What I watch on this name is earnings consistency — specifically whether delivery against consensus is stable or deteriorating. That is usually where the rating gets confirmed or challenged before the price reflects it. The scenario that changes my read is a genuine valuation reset — not a small pullback, but a re-rating that reflects the actual risk profile. Until that happens, the risk/reward is not there.
— Anton Ladnyi, CFA
Earnings History
SAABF Earnings History — EPS Surprise Rate 2026
Quarter
EPS Est. (consensus)
EPS Actual (adjusted, consensus basis)
Surprise
Q2 2026
—
$3.96
—
Q1 2026
—
$2.65
—
Q4 2025
—
$4.73
—
Q3 2025
—
$1.77
—
EPS Actual is on the same adjusted/non-GAAP basis as the consensus estimate it is compared against (excludes one-time items, consistent with how Wall Street EPS estimates are typically constructed) — it will generally differ from the company's GAAP diluted EPS as reported in its official financial statements. Verify the GAAP figure against the issuer's original earnings release if that basis is what you need.
How Has SAABF Performed vs. Wall Street EPS Estimates?
Revenue growth × exit multiple (editorial, not mechanically reproducible from disclosed inputs) · hover each scenario for detail · current price $67.55
▼
Bear Case
$35
-48.2%
Implied NTM P/E: — (target ÷ next-4Q consensus EPS — distinct from the exit multiple below, which is applied to a later-year EPS estimate)
5% revenue CAGR · 8x exit multiple
◆
Base Case
$71
+5.1%
Implied NTM P/E: — (target ÷ next-4Q consensus EPS — distinct from the exit multiple below, which is applied to a later-year EPS estimate)
11% revenue CAGR · 11x exit multiple
▲
Bull Case
$105
+55.4%
Implied NTM P/E: — (target ÷ next-4Q consensus EPS — distinct from the exit multiple below, which is applied to a later-year EPS estimate)
16% revenue CAGR · 15x exit multiple
How Correlated Is SAABF With Its Sector Peers?
2 of 10 peer pairs correlated above 0.60, indicating meaningful historical diversification across the selected names, although all remain exposed to common equity, sector and macro factors.
SAABF pairwise correlation heatmap across 5 peers — 2 of 10 pairs above 0.60.
2 of 10 peer pairs correlated above 0.60, indicating meaningful historical diversification across the selected names, although all remain exposed to common equity, sector and macro factors.
Extended Analysis — Buy, Hold or Sell? Risk Factors. Portfolio Fit.
Is SAABF a buy, hold, or sell?
SAABF carries a quantitative grade of Avoid. The trailing P/E of 48.6 sits 121% above the Industrials sector median of 22.0x — a premium that demands sustained earnings delivery. Our two-stage, EPS-based DCF model produces a pure model range of $26–$46. After blending with Street consensus targets, the displayed fair-value range is $26–$46 — implying a -95% margin of safety vs. blended base fair value at the current price of $67.55. The width of the range reflects genuine uncertainty in the terminal growth rate assumption: the correct framework is a probability-weighted distribution over scenarios, not a single point estimate. See the DCF valuation framework for full methodology.
Analyst estimate revisions are trending unavailable.
What are SAABF's key risk factors?
With a beta of 0.03, SAABF exhibits a low-volatility risk profile relative to the broad market. The 95th-percentile CVaR of -20.5% on a one-month horizon should inform position sizing directly: at a 10% portfolio weight, this standalone tail outcome corresponds to approximately 2.0% of portfolio value before accounting for correlations with other holdings — not a marginal portfolio CVaR contribution, which depends on the full covariance structure. Net margins of 8.0% fall below the Industrials sector average of 11%, suggesting margin pressure. Return on equity of 15.9% suggests solid capital efficiency. The balance sheet is conservatively leveraged at 29% debt-to-equity.
How does SAABF fit in a diversified portfolio?
At typical HENRY portfolio weights — 10–20% of the equity allocation — SAABF carries a beta of 0.03, meaning it amplifies broad market moves proportionally. The appropriate weight is not a function of conviction alone, but of the full covariance structure across all holdings. See the Ledoit-Wolf covariance framework for the methodology behind these calculations.
Among closely correlated names, SAABF shows the strongest co-movement with BAESY (0.60), RYCEY (0.39), EADSY (0.36). Investors seeking diversification should note these correlation dynamics when constructing multi-asset portfolios.
True portfolio risk is a function of the full covariance structure across all holdings — not individual stock metrics. The Portfolio Health Check quantifies this at the portfolio level: it surfaces hidden concentration, marginal CVaR contributions, and the degree to which your overall allocation deviates from an optimal risk-adjusted mandate. The SAABF analysis here is a single node in that larger structure.
What is SAABF's AI-Era Durability & Disruption Risk Score?
Saab's durability case is built on record backlog scale and a real pivot of R&D toward autonomy: order backlog hit SEK 318 billion at Q2 2026, driven by Polish submarine and Ukrainian Gripen contracts, while internally funded R&D reached SEK 4.4 billion (5.0% of sales, more than double the level three years ago), explicitly directed at autonomy, distributed sensors and AI-based command-and-control -- concrete programs include MQ-9B-based unmanned airborne early warning, unmanned CB90 vessels, and the Nimbrix counter-UAS system. Saab has chosen to partner with rather than compete against the software-native disruptors, striking a technology collaboration with Helsing for AI-driven autonomy instead of building a proprietary C2 stack from scratch. The disruption risk is programmatic rather than existential: the T7 trainer program continues to pressure Aeronautics margins, the Naval segment has already taken a write-down tied to the Swedish frigate program, and supply-chain constraints threaten Saab's ability to convert its unusually large backlog into revenue on schedule. Watch whether the Helsing partnership yields a named program win and whether Naval and Aeronautics margins stabilize.
What is SAABF's intrinsic value and DCF price target?
A.L. Capital Advisory's model produces a blended fair-value range (100% pure DCF, 0% analyst consensus) of $26 (bear case) to $46 (bull case) for Saab AB (SAABF). At $67.55, the margin of safety vs. blended base case is -95% (positive = discount to fair value; negative = premium). The bear-to-bull spread reflects genuine sensitivity to the two dominant DCF inputs: the terminal growth rate and the CAPM cost of equity (this model discounts EPS, an equity-level metric, so the cost of equity rather than a debt-weighted WACC is the applicable discount rate). Terminal value typically accounts for 60-80% of total intrinsic value in most equity DCF models, which is why a range is more analytically sound than a point estimate. The central analytical question is not what the DCF outputs as a single number but which growth trajectory the current market price already discounts. All DCF analysis follows CFA Institute standards and is conducted by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory. Full methodology: DCF Valuation Framework →
Is SAABF a buy or sell in 2026?
Saab AB (SAABF) carries a Reduce composite rating from A.L. Capital Advisory, consisting of a Avoid quantitative grade plus an analyst-conviction overlay. The quantitative grade is set by margin-of-safety band; the overlay is an additive analyst adjustment disclosed in the page's rating-calculation breakdown. Five-factor model scoring (Value, Quality, Momentum, Volatility, Size) and CVaR tail-risk measurement are shown separately on the page and are not inputs to this specific composite-rating formula. At $67.55, the margin of safety vs. blended base fair value is -95% (blended fair-value range: $26 bear – $46 bull). That places the current price in the Premium zone of A.L. Capital Advisory's DCF framework, which sets the quantitative grade component before the analyst-conviction overlay is applied. Composite factor score: 3.2/5. Strongest factor: Volatility (5.0/5). Weakest factor: Value (2.0/5). Trailing P/E: 48.6x. Analysis by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory. Full methodology: Rating Methodology (this page) →
How does SAABF score on Value, Quality, Momentum, Volatility, and Size?
SAABF five-factor scores (A.L. Capital Advisory, 1–5 scale): Value 2.0/5 (below average) — measures the trailing P/E multiple versus the sector median (not the DCF or blended fair-value range, which are separate metrics on this page); Quality 3.0/5 (neutral) — captures profitability metrics including return on equity (ROE: 15.9%) and net margin (8.0%) — sustained above-peer ROE and margins are the model's proxy for economic moat and pricing power; Momentum 3.0/5 (neutral) — reflects recent price trajectory and earnings surprise consistency; Volatility 5.0/5 (strong) — inverse measure derived from beta, where lower historical volatility earns a higher score; Size 3.0/5 (neutral) — market capitalisation rank (mega-cap $1T+ scores 5/5). Composite: 3.2/5. Factor scores above 4.0 signal a tailwind in that dimension; below 2.0 signals a material headwind. Analysis by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory.
What is SAABF's tail risk and CVaR?
The 95th-percentile Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) for SAABF on a one-month horizon is -20.5%. CVaR represents the expected average loss in the worst 5% of monthly outcomes — a more conservative tail risk measure than standard VaR, which only marks the loss threshold. Beta of 0.03 indicates below-market systematic sensitivity — beta measures historical sensitivity to market moves, not total volatility. For reference, a diversified S&P 500 ETF carries a one-month CVaR of roughly -8% to -12% in normal market conditions; individual equity CVaR is higher due to idiosyncratic risk. At the portfolio level, what matters is the marginal CVaR contribution of each holding — not its standalone figure. The A.L. Capital Advisory Portfolio Health Check quantifies each position's marginal tail-risk contribution across your entire holdings. Analysis by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory. Full methodology: CVaR & Tail-Risk Methodology →
What would trigger a rating upgrade or downgrade for SAABF?
Upgrade trigger: Upgrade to Strong Buy on evidence of accelerating earnings surprise magnitude combined with improvement in the Value factor score — specifically if the current 48.6x P/E is supported by an upward revision to DCF terminal growth assumptions. Downgrade trigger: Continued earnings misses or deteriorating balance sheet quality reducing the Quality factor score below 2.0/5. These triggers are reassessed each time the underlying fundamentals, price, or earnings data refresh — the current Reduce rating is not held on a fixed review calendar. Analysis by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory. Full methodology: Rating Methodology (this page) →
How does SAABF contribute to portfolio risk and diversification?
SAABF carries a beta of 0.03 (low-volatility / defensive relative to the broad equity market). A beta above 1.0 means the position amplifies market moves in both directions at a typical portfolio weight. Strongest peer co-movement: BAESY (0.60), RYCEY (0.39), EADSY (0.36). Holding SAABF alongside these names in the same portfolio increases concentration risk. True portfolio risk is a function of the full covariance structure — a single stock's beta does not reveal its marginal contribution to portfolio tail loss. The A.L. Capital Advisory Portfolio Health Check quantifies concentration risk (Herfindahl-Hirschman Index), pairwise correlations, and marginal CVaR contribution across all your holdings. If a single position such as this one makes up an outsized share of your net worth — employer stock, RSUs, or concentrated equity compensation — a Strategic Session builds the sequencing plan and the written allocation that follows from it. Analysis by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory. Full methodology: Ledoit-Wolf Covariance Framework →
What quantitative methodology does A.L. Capital Advisory use to analyse SAABF?
A.L. Capital Advisory analyses Saab AB (SAABF) using a four-part quantitative research framework grounded in CFA Institute standards (not all four parts feed the composite rating formula directly — see below). (1) DCF Valuation: a two-stage earnings-based DCF that projects EPS (not free cash flow) under bear and bull assumptions, discounts at the CAPM cost of equity (the applicable rate for an equity-level metric like EPS, not a debt-weighted WACC) to produce an intrinsic value range with margin-of-safety calculation. (2) Five-Factor Scoring: each equity is scored 1–5 on Value, Quality, Momentum, Volatility, and Size. (3) CVaR Tail Risk: 95th-percentile Conditional Value at Risk from historical simulation of daily returns on a one-month horizon. (4) Earnings Surprise Analysis: quarterly beat rate and magnitude, shown for context alongside the factor scores. The current Reduce composite rating for SAABF is calculated separately from this broader framework: it consists of a Avoid quantitative grade, any automatic fundamental penalty, and a disclosed qualitative analyst-conviction overlay — see this page's Rating Methodology section for the exact formula. Five-factor scoring, CVaR and earnings surprise analysis below are supporting research diagnostics shown separately on this page; they are not direct numerical inputs into this specific composite-rating calculation. Analysis by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory. Full methodology: DCF Valuation Framework → · CVaR & Tail-Risk Methodology →
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Retrieved 2026-08-29T11:36:10+00:00 (UTC); see per-quarter analyst counts in Earnings Forecast; individual target ages/dates are not disclosed by the data provider
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[6] DCF valuation, five-factor model & composite rating
Calculated 2026-08-29T11:36:10+00:00 (UTC); see Rating Methodology above for the exact formula
Hand-authored thesis commentary (bull/bear case, catalysts, AI-Era Durability Score narrative) is cross-checked against the company's own investor-relations disclosures at time of writing; figures presented as A.L. Capital Advisory estimates are proprietary forecasts, not company guidance, unless explicitly attributed to the issuer.
Market-session status above is derived from the page's UTC generation time using standard NYSE hours (9:30am–4:00pm ET regular session); it does not account for US market holidays and may be inaccurate on those dates.
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This analysis is produced using a systematic quantitative framework applied to market data and does not constitute investment advice. Prose commentary is AI-assisted and generated from structured quantitative inputs. All data and metrics are as of 2026-08-29 and are point-in-time estimates subject to revision without notice. CVaR figures are based on historical simulation and do not guarantee future outcomes. DCF ranges and upgrade/downgrade triggers are forward-looking statements based on current assumptions and may not materialise. Past performance does not guarantee future results. This analysis does not account for individual circumstances, tax position, or investment objectives — consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. This content is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute regulated investment advice under MiFID II or FCA guidelines. This content is not intended for US persons or residents of jurisdictions where its distribution would be contrary to local law or regulation. This service is not directed at residents of Finland, Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Iceland, or Poland. The author may hold long or short positions in securities mentioned in this analysis. Nothing on this page represents a solicitation to buy or sell any security. A.L. Capital Advisory is an independent private advisory practice and is not affiliated with Saab AB.
CFA Portfolio Advisory — SAABF
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