BigBear.ai Holdings Inc. (BBAI) Stock Analysis — Price Target, N/A Rating & DCF Valuation (2026)
BBAI screens as lower-quality and fairly valued — tail risk is elevated — CVaR -41.9% demands careful position sizing.
BBAI's quantitative grade is N/A, with significant tail risk (CVaR -41.9%), and quality metrics (net margin -2%, ROE -58%). BigBear.ai Holdings Inc. (BBAI) — valuation grade: N/A.
Key Takeaways
- Valuation: N/A grade
- Risk: CVaR -41.9% (95th percentile, 1-month) indicates moderate tail exposure; beta of 3.05 amplifies broad market moves in both directions
- Strengths: -2% net margin, -58% ROE dominate the factor profile
- Watch: Monitor earnings delivery — premium multiples leave limited margin for misses
Quantitative Factor Profile
Key Metrics
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Current Price | $4.09 |
| Forward P/E | -20.4x |
| P/S Ratio | 15.4 |
| EV/EBITDA | -26.4 |
| Beta | 3.05 |
| Net Margin | -2.3% |
| ROE | -58.4% |
| Debt/Equity | 3.0% |
| CVaR (95%, 1M) | -41.9% |
| Market Cap | $2.0B |
BBAI shows mixed quality signals in the factor model, at a broadly fair valuation.
With a CVaR of -41.9% on a one-month horizon, the tail risk profile demands disciplined position sizing rather than conviction-driven oversizing.
The rating on BBAI is driven by a factor profile that is genuinely mixed — there is no clean narrative here, which is itself a signal worth taking seriously. The tail risk is the thing. A CVaR of -41.9% is not a number to dismiss — it means in bad months this position can move severely, and that has to be reflected in how much you size it, not just whether you own it at all. The scenario that changes my read is a genuine valuation reset — not a small pullback, but a re-rating that reflects the actual risk profile. Until that happens, the risk/reward is not there.
Earnings History
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | $-0.08 | $-0.12 | -50.0% ✗ |
| Q4 2025 | $-0.06 | $-0.01 | +83.3% ✓ |
| Q3 2025 | $-0.07 | $0.01 | +113.6% ✓ |
| Q2 2025 | $-0.06 | $-0.71 | -10.2% ✗ |
Quarterly EPS — Estimate vs Actual
Earnings Projections
| Quarter | EPS Est. | YoY EPS | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | $0.00 | +100.0% | 3 |
| Q2 2026 | $0.00 | +100.0% | 3 |
| Q3 2026 | $0.00 | -100.0% | 3 |
| Q4 2026 | $0.00 | +100.0% | 3 |
BBAI vs. Sector Peers
| Ticker | P/E (TTM) | Fwd P/E | Beta | CVaR-95 | Net Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BBAI | — | -20.4x | 3.05 | -41.9% | -2.3% |
| PLTR | 151.1x | 65.3x | 1.52 | -27.5% | 43.7% |
| MSFT | 24.8x | 21.5x | 1.09 | -17.0% | 39.3% |
| GOOGL | 30.6x | 27.7x | 1.27 | -10.8% | 37.9% |
| NVDA | 44.0x | 19.1x | 2.24 | -11.2% | 55.6% |
Pairwise Correlation Matrix
Extended Analysis — Buy, Hold or Sell? Risk Factors. Portfolio Fit.
Is BBAI a buy, hold, or sell?
BBAI carries a valuation grade of N/A.
With a 50% beat rate on recent quarters, earnings predictability has been mixed. The most recent quarter missed by a 50.0% earnings surprise. Analyst estimate revisions are trending downward.
What are BBAI's key risk factors?
With a beta of 3.05, BBAI exhibits a highly aggressive risk profile relative to the broad market. The 95th-percentile CVaR of -41.9% on a one-month horizon should inform position sizing directly: at a 10% portfolio weight, this tail event contributes approximately 4.2% of total portfolio loss in the worst 5% of months. Net margins of -2.3% fall below the Technology sector average of 22%, suggesting margin pressure. The balance sheet is conservatively leveraged at 3% debt-to-equity.
At 0.30, the put/call ratio skews bullish, with call buyers dominating recent flow. Implied volatility of 56.2% is below realized volatility of 69.6%, potentially making options relatively cheap. Insiders have been net sellers to the tune of $460.9M recently. While routine dispositions are common, the magnitude bears watching. Short interest of 25.2% of float is elevated, reflecting meaningful bearish positioning.
How does BBAI fit in a diversified portfolio?
At typical HENRY portfolio weights — 10–20% of the equity allocation — BBAI carries a beta of 3.05, meaning it amplifies broad market moves proportionally. The appropriate weight is not a function of conviction alone, but of the full covariance structure across all holdings. See the Ledoit-Wolf covariance framework for the methodology behind these calculations.
Among closely correlated names, BBAI shows the strongest co-movement with PLTR (0.40), MSFT (0.28), NVDA (0.26). Investors seeking diversification should note these correlation dynamics when constructing multi-asset portfolios.
True portfolio risk is a function of the full covariance structure across all holdings — not individual stock metrics. The Portfolio Health Check quantifies this at the portfolio level: it surfaces hidden concentration, marginal CVaR contributions, and the degree to which your overall allocation deviates from an optimal risk-adjusted mandate. The BBAI analysis here is a single node in that larger structure.
For analysis of the structural AI infrastructure capex cycle driving demand for BBAI — see our thematic deep-dive: The $7 Trillion Race: AI Infrastructure as a Decade-Long Investment Cycle.
Investor FAQ
Is BBAI a buy or sell in 2026?
BigBear.ai Holdings Inc. (BBAI) carries a N/A quantitative rating from A.L. Capital Advisory, derived from Discounted Cash Flow intrinsic value analysis, five-factor model scoring (Value, Quality, Momentum, Volatility, Size), and CVaR tail risk measurement. Composite factor score: 2.4/5. Strongest factor: Value (3.0/5). Weakest factor: Quality (2.0/5). Rating by Anton Ladnyi, CFA Charterholder (ex-Goldman Sachs Equity Research, ex-J.P. Morgan Wealth Management), A.L. Capital Advisory, Berlin. Full methodology: Portfolio Construction Framework →
How does BBAI score on Value, Quality, Momentum, Volatility, and Size?
BBAI five-factor scores (A.L. Capital Advisory, 1–5 scale): Value 3.0/5 (neutral) — measures current price versus DCF intrinsic range and trailing earnings multiples; Quality 2.0/5 (below average) — captures profitability metrics including return on equity, net margin (ROE: -58.4%) and net margin (-226.7%); Momentum 3.0/5 (neutral) — reflects recent price trajectory and earnings surprise consistency; Volatility 2.0/5 (below average) — inverse measure derived from beta, where lower historical volatility earns a higher score; Size 2.0/5 (below average) — market capitalisation rank (mega-cap $1T+ scores 5/5). Composite: 2.4/5. Factor scores above 4.0 signal a tailwind in that dimension; below 2.0 signals a material headwind. Analysis by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory. Full methodology: Black-Litterman Model →
What is BBAI's tail risk and CVaR?
The 95th-percentile Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) for BBAI on a one-month horizon is -41.9%. CVaR represents the expected average loss in the worst 5% of monthly outcomes — a more conservative tail risk measure than standard VaR, which only marks the loss threshold. Beta of 3.05 indicates above-market volatility with amplified drawdown exposure. For reference, a diversified S&P 500 ETF carries a one-month CVaR of roughly -8% to -12% in normal market conditions; individual equity CVaR is higher due to idiosyncratic risk. At the portfolio level, what matters is the marginal CVaR contribution of each holding — not its standalone figure. The A.L. Capital Advisory Portfolio Health Check quantifies each position's marginal tail-risk contribution across your entire holdings. Analysis by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory. Full methodology: CVaR & Tail-Risk Methodology →
What would trigger a rating upgrade or downgrade for BBAI?
Upgrade trigger: Upgrade to Strong Buy on accelerating earnings momentum, improving factor scores, and a wider margin of safety. Downgrade trigger: Continued earnings misses or deteriorating balance sheet quality reducing the Quality factor score below 2.0/5. Analysis by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory. Full methodology: Investment Policy Statement Framework →
Does BBAI consistently beat earnings estimates?
BBAI has beaten consensus EPS estimates in 50% of tracked quarterly periods — indicating mixed delivery. The most recent reported quarter missed consensus by 50.0%. Mixed earnings delivery introduces uncertainty into the Momentum factor score and is reflected in the current rating. Earnings surprise magnitude and direction are incorporated into the Momentum and Quality dimensions of the five-factor scoring model. Analysis by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory. Full methodology: DCF Valuation Framework →
How does BBAI contribute to portfolio risk and diversification?
BBAI carries a beta of 3.05 (high-volatility / growth-sensitive relative to the broad equity market). A beta above 1.0 means the position amplifies market moves in both directions at a typical portfolio weight. Strongest peer co-movement: PLTR (0.40), MSFT (0.28), NVDA (0.26). Holding BBAI alongside these names in the same portfolio increases concentration risk. True portfolio risk is a function of the full covariance structure — a single stock's beta does not reveal its marginal contribution to portfolio tail loss. The A.L. Capital Advisory Portfolio Health Check quantifies concentration risk (Herfindahl-Hirschman Index), pairwise correlations, and marginal CVaR contribution across all your holdings. Analysis by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory. Full methodology: Ledoit-Wolf Covariance Framework →
What quantitative methodology does A.L. Capital Advisory use to analyse BBAI?
A.L. Capital Advisory analyses BigBear.ai Holdings Inc. (BBAI) using a four-component quantitative framework grounded in CFA Institute standards. (1) DCF Valuation: projects free cash flows under bear and bull assumptions, discounts at WACC to produce an intrinsic value range with margin-of-safety calculation. (2) Five-Factor Scoring: each equity is scored 1–5 on Value, Quality, Momentum, Volatility, and Size. (3) CVaR Tail Risk: 95th-percentile Conditional Value at Risk from historical simulation of daily returns on a one-month horizon. (4) Earnings Surprise Analysis: quarterly beat rate and magnitude are incorporated into the Momentum and Quality factor scores. The current N/A rating for BBAI is the output of applying this complete framework to current data. All analysis is conducted personally by Anton Ladnyi, CFA Charterholder (ex-Goldman Sachs Equity Research, ex-J.P. Morgan Wealth Management), founder of A.L. Capital Advisory, Berlin. CFA Charter: https://credentials.cfainstitute.org/5ff4f4bf-f1e6-4ca7-9ab2-aaed50ec2e43 Full methodology: DCF Valuation Framework → · CVaR & Tail-Risk Methodology →
Run BBAI in Asset Lens
Live DCF valuation, Monte Carlo simulation, options flow intelligence, and full factor decomposition — updated in real time. Free, no account required.
Launch Live Analysis →
This analysis is produced using a systematic quantitative framework applied to market data and does not constitute investment advice. Prose commentary is AI-assisted and generated from structured quantitative inputs. All data and metrics are as of 2026-05-08 and are point-in-time estimates subject to revision without notice. CVaR figures are based on historical simulation and do not guarantee future outcomes. DCF ranges and upgrade/downgrade triggers are forward-looking statements based on current assumptions and may not materialise. Past performance does not guarantee future results. This analysis does not account for individual circumstances, tax position, or investment objectives — consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. This content is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute regulated investment advice under MiFID II or FCA guidelines. This content is not intended for US persons or residents of jurisdictions where its distribution would be contrary to local law or regulation. This service is not directed at residents of Finland, Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Iceland, or Poland. The author may hold long or short positions in securities mentioned in this analysis. Nothing on this page represents a solicitation to buy or sell any security. A.L. Capital Advisory is an independent private advisory practice and is not affiliated with BigBear.ai Holdings Inc.
