By Anton Ladnyi, CFA · ex-Goldman Sachs · ex-J.P. MorganPublished Updated
VST — nuclear power compounder at 10.8x EV/EBITDA: $7.2B 2026 adj EBITDA guidance reaffirmed (Q1 beat by 53% on EPS), Meta and AWS PPAs signed for 2,600 MW at PJM nuclear sites; Cogentrix 5,500-MW acquisition pending H2 2026; investment-grade upgrade; Morgan Stanley $212 PT; primary risk is gas-price volatility and 2.6x net leverage at deal close
VST Price Target & Rating
VST's quantitative grade is Buy, with moderate downside risk (CVaR -17.0%), and quality metrics (net margin 12%, ROE 43%). Vistra Corp. (VST) trades at $160.23 with a valuation grade of Buy: a trailing P/E of 26.8x at a 34% premium to sector median, net margins of 11.5%, a DCF-implied intrinsic range of $98–$256 suggesting a +10% margin of safety, beta 1.45 (moderate risk profile).
DCF Valuation Range
Key Takeaways
Valuation: Buy grade — P/E 26.8x — DCF range $98–$256 implies +10% margin of safety
Risk: CVaR -17.0% (95th percentile, 1-month) indicates moderate tail exposure; beta of 1.45 amplifies broad market moves in both directions
Strengths: Size 4.0/5, 12% net margin, 43% ROE dominate the factor profile
Catalyst: PJM capacity auction results summer 2026 — every $1/MW-day adds ~$85M EBITDA; Cogentrix close H2 2026 triggers first guidance update including deal; Q2 2026 earnings for first formal guidance incorporating Meta/AWS PPA economics
Bear catalyst: EBITDA guidance cut below $6.5B on gas price or volume compression; Cogentrix deal collapses or closes with materially worse-than-expected terms; unplanned nuclear outage at a major site reduces contracted delivery obligations; hyperscaler announces delay or reduction in AI infrastructure capex affecting PPA demand
Main riskValue score 2.0/5 signals premium pricing relative to peers
Tail riskCVaR -17.0% over one month at the 95th percentile
DCF range$98–$256 intrinsic range; margin of safety +10%
Best useCore large-cap Utilities holding — not a source of diversified sector exposure
Next watchEarnings delivery consistency and margin trajectory
Quantitative Factor Profile
Value
2.0 / 5
Quality
3.0 / 5
Momentum
3.0 / 5
Volatility
2.5 / 5
Size
4.0 / 5
Key Metrics
VST Key Metrics — Vistra Corp. 2026
Metric
Value
Current Price
$160.23
P/E Ratio (TTM)
26.8x
Forward P/E
14.6x
P/S Ratio
2.8
EV/EBITDA
11.2
Beta
1.45
Net Margin
11.5%
ROE
42.9%
Debt/Equity
355.2%
Dividend Yield
0.57%
CVaR (95%, 1M)
-17.0%
Market Cap
$54.0B
Analyst View
Anton Ladnyi, CFA · A.L. Capital AdvisoryUpdated 2026-05-31
Rating Rationale
VST — nuclear power compounder at 10.8x EV/EBITDA: $7.2B 2026 adj EBITDA guidance reaffirmed (Q1 beat by 53% on EPS), Meta and AWS PPAs signed for 2,600 MW at PJM nuclear sites; Cogentrix 5,500-MW acquisition pending H2 2026; investment-grade upgrade; Morgan Stanley $212 PT; primary risk is gas-price volatility and 2.6x net leverage at deal close
Investment Thesis
↑ Bull Case
Q1 2026 adj EBITDA $1.494B (+20% YoY, +85% vs Q1 2024); 2026 EBITDA guidance reaffirmed at $6.8–$7.6B — entirely excluding the $4.7B Cogentrix acquisition and Meta/AWS PPAs; consensus has not modeled the full contracted nuclear earnings power; each GW of new PPA at $100+/MWh adds ~$350M in incremental annual EBITDA
2nd largest US nuclear fleet becomes premium AI power infrastructure: Meta (2,600 MW) and AWS PPAs signed at PJM nuclear sites at record capacity prices; 4+ GW of uncontracted nuclear capacity available for additional hyperscaler agreements; nuclear output commands a green premium unavailable from gas or coal competitors
Cogentrix acquisition (5,500 MW natural gas) pending H2 2026, excluded from guidance; closes in the highest PJM capacity-price environment in history; combined 40,000+ MW fleet creates scale and market-price leverage that no new entrant can replicate in a decade
PJM capacity prices at record highs with summer 2026 auction as a hard catalyst; every $1/MW-day increase across VST's PJM footprint adds ~$85M annual EBITDA; East segment Q1 adj EBITDA +55.8% YoY to $801M driven by elevated capacity revenues — and this is before the new auction clears
$6.3B returned to shareholders since 2021 ($600M in Q1 2026 alone); investment-grade upgrade from Fitch reduces financing costs and expands PPA counterparty pool; forward P/E of 17.45x on 2026 EPS consensus of $9.40 is undemanding for a 58% net income growth trajectory
↓ Bear Case
Natural gas price volatility can swing ERCOT EBITDA by $500M–$1B annually; VST maintains partial hedges but retains meaningful commodity exposure in Texas where gas-on-gas competition drives spot prices; a warm winter or supply surplus compresses margins in the largest segment
$4.7B Cogentrix acquisition and 2.6x net leverage post-close leave the balance sheet stretched; any miss in EBITDA or delay in deal closing pressures credit metrics and constrains the buyback program at a moment of elevated M&A financing costs
At 10.8x EV/EBITDA, VST already commands a significant power-demand premium over traditional utility peers at 7–8x; if AI data center buildout pace decelerates or hyperscaler power demand disappoints vs. current projections, the premium multiple collapses with no natural floor
Nuclear operating risk: any unplanned multi-week outage at Comanche Peak, Byron, or Braidwood reduces contracted nuclear output during the highest-value PPA delivery period; insurance covers O&M but not lost PPA revenue
What Changes the Rating
↑Catalyst:Cogentrix closes and 2026 EBITDA guidance raised above $8B; additional hyperscaler PPA announced for uncontracted nuclear GW; PJM clearing prices above $250/MW-day; Fitch and S&P both investment-grade enabling cheaper debt refinancing
↓Stop / exit:EBITDA guidance cut below $6.5B on gas price or volume compression; Cogentrix deal collapses or closes with materially worse-than-expected terms; unplanned nuclear outage at a major site reduces contracted delivery obligations; hyperscaler announces delay or reduction in AI infrastructure capex affecting PPA demand
Anton’s personal note
VST is a Buy on the current read. The factor profile is constructive and the valuation is not stretched — a combination that tends to hold up reasonably well across market conditions. What I watch on this name is earnings consistency — specifically whether delivery against consensus is stable or deteriorating. That is usually where the rating gets confirmed or challenged before the price reflects it. The setup that would make me more positive is a quarter that confirms the operating leverage story. The setup that would make me cautious is any signal that consensus estimates are getting ahead of fundamentals.
— Anton Ladnyi, CFA
Earnings History
VST Earnings History — EPS Surprise Rate 2026
Quarter
EPS Est.
EPS Actual
Surprise
Q1 2026
$1.87
$2.87
+53.4% ✓
Q4 2025
$2.30
$0.54
-76.5% ✗
Q3 2025
$1.96
$1.75
-10.5% ✗
Q2 2025
$0.90
$0.81
-9.8% ✗
Quarterly EPS — Estimate vs Actual
Earnings Projections
VST Forward EPS Consensus Estimates 2026
Quarter
EPS Est.
YoY EPS
Analysts
Q2 2026
$1.98
+144.4%
7
Q3 2026
$2.27
+29.5%
7
Q4 2026
~$2.43
+350.0%
11
Q1 2027
~$2.73
-4.9%
11
~ Estimated from annual consensus — not a direct analyst survey
VST — P/E 26.8x · Beta 1.45 • Quantitative grade: Buy • CVaR from one-year daily history · historical simulation
DCF Scenario Analysis
Hover each scenario for detail · current price $160.23
▼
Bear Case
$105
-34.5%
Fwd P/E: 11.2x
5% revenue CAGR · 8x exit multiple
◆
Base Case
$205
+27.9%
Fwd P/E: 21.8x
15% revenue CAGR · 11x exit multiple
▲
Bull Case
$295
+84.1%
Fwd P/E: 31.4x
25% revenue CAGR · 14x exit multiple
Pairwise Correlation Matrix
1 of 10 peer pairs correlated above 0.60 — diversification benefit within this cluster is structurally limited.
Extended Analysis — Buy, Hold or Sell? Risk Factors. Portfolio Fit.
Is VST a buy, hold, or sell?
VST carries a valuation grade of Buy. The trailing P/E of 26.8 sits 34% above the Utilities sector median of 20.0x — a premium that demands sustained earnings delivery. Our discounted cash flow model produces an intrinsic range of $98–$256 — implying a +10% margin of safety at the current price of $160.23. The width of the DCF range reflects genuine uncertainty in the terminal growth rate assumption: the correct framework is a probability-weighted distribution over scenarios, not a single point estimate. See the DCF valuation framework for full methodology.
With a 3% beat rate on recent quarters, earnings predictability has been mixed. The most recent quarter delivered a 53.4% earnings surprise. Analyst estimate revisions are trending upward.
What are VST's key risk factors?
With a beta of 1.45, VST exhibits an above-market risk profile relative to the broad market. The 95th-percentile CVaR of -17.0% on a one-month horizon should inform position sizing directly: at a 10% portfolio weight, this tail event contributes approximately 1.7% of total portfolio loss in the worst 5% of months. Net margins stand at 11.5%. Return on equity of 42.9% indicates highly efficient capital allocation. Debt-to-equity of 355% warrants monitoring for leverage risk.
A put/call ratio of 1.11 indicates roughly balanced sentiment in the options market. Implied and realized volatility are roughly aligned at 54.0% and 50.1% respectively. Insiders have been net sellers to the tune of $91.9M recently. While routine dispositions are common, the magnitude bears watching. Short interest is low at 4.6% of float, suggesting limited bearish conviction.
How does VST fit in a diversified portfolio?
At typical HENRY portfolio weights — 10–20% of the equity allocation — VST carries a beta of 1.45, meaning it amplifies broad market moves proportionally. The appropriate weight is not a function of conviction alone, but of the full covariance structure across all holdings. See the Ledoit-Wolf covariance framework for the methodology behind these calculations.
Among closely correlated names, VST shows the strongest co-movement with CEG (0.79), VRT (0.44), GEV (0.42). Investors seeking diversification should note these correlation dynamics when constructing multi-asset portfolios. With the top peer correlation at 0.79, adding VST to a portfolio that already holds these names provides limited marginal diversification benefit — particularly during stress events when correlations converge toward 1.0.
True portfolio risk is a function of the full covariance structure across all holdings — not individual stock metrics. The Portfolio Health Check quantifies this at the portfolio level: it surfaces hidden concentration, marginal CVaR contributions, and the degree to which your overall allocation deviates from an optimal risk-adjusted mandate. The VST analysis here is a single node in that larger structure.
Vistra Corp. (VST) carries a Buy quantitative rating from A.L. Capital Advisory, derived from Discounted Cash Flow intrinsic value analysis, five-factor model scoring (Value, Quality, Momentum, Volatility, Size), and CVaR tail risk measurement. At $160.23, the DCF midpoint margin of safety is +10% (intrinsic value range: $98 bear – $256 bull). Composite factor score: 2.9/5. Strongest factor: Size (4.0/5). Weakest factor: Value (2.0/5). Trailing P/E: 26.8x. Analysis by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory. Full methodology: Portfolio Construction Framework →
What is the average analyst target price for VST?
Wall Street consensus target for VST: $225.29 (+40.6% upside from the current price of $160.23). The analyst target range spans $99.00 (most bearish) to $320.00 (most bullish). Consensus recommendation: Strong Buy. Note that analyst price targets typically reflect a 12-month forward horizon and are derived from a blend of DCF, comparable-company, and sum-of-the-parts analysis. A.L. Capital Advisory’s quantitative Buy rating is produced independently — from DCF intrinsic value, five-factor model scores, and CVaR tail risk — and does not mechanically track Street consensus. When the two diverge, the divergence itself is informative: it can reflect differences in time horizon, valuation methodology, or the degree to which the current price already discounts the consensus case. Analysis by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory. Full methodology: Monte Carlo Simulation Framework →
How does VST score on Value, Quality, Momentum, Volatility, and Size?
VST five-factor scores (A.L. Capital Advisory, 1–5 scale): Value 2.0/5 (below average) — measures current price versus DCF intrinsic range and trailing earnings multiples; Quality 3.0/5 (neutral) — captures profitability metrics including return on equity, net margin (ROE: 42.9%) and net margin (11.5%); Momentum 3.0/5 (neutral) — reflects recent price trajectory and earnings surprise consistency; Volatility 2.5/5 (neutral) — inverse measure derived from beta, where lower historical volatility earns a higher score; Size 4.0/5 (above average) — market capitalisation rank (mega-cap $1T+ scores 5/5). Composite: 2.9/5. Factor scores above 4.0 signal a tailwind in that dimension; below 2.0 signals a material headwind. Analysis by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory. Full methodology: Black-Litterman Model →
What is VST's tail risk and CVaR?
The 95th-percentile Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) for VST on a one-month horizon is -17.0%. CVaR represents the expected average loss in the worst 5% of monthly outcomes — a more conservative tail risk measure than standard VaR, which only marks the loss threshold. Beta of 1.45 indicates above-market volatility with amplified drawdown exposure. For reference, a diversified S&P 500 ETF carries a one-month CVaR of roughly -8% to -12% in normal market conditions; individual equity CVaR is higher due to idiosyncratic risk. At the portfolio level, what matters is the marginal CVaR contribution of each holding — not its standalone figure. The A.L. Capital Advisory Portfolio Health Check quantifies each position's marginal tail-risk contribution across your entire holdings. Analysis by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory. Full methodology: CVaR & Tail-Risk Methodology →
What is VST's intrinsic value and DCF price target?
A.L. Capital Advisory's DCF model produces an intrinsic value range of $98 (bear case) to $256 (bull case) for Vistra Corp. (VST). At $160.23, the midpoint margin of safety is +10% (positive = discount to intrinsic mid; negative = premium). The bear-to-bull spread reflects genuine sensitivity to the two dominant DCF inputs: the terminal growth rate and WACC. Terminal value typically accounts for 60-80% of total intrinsic value in most equity DCF models, which is why a range is more analytically sound than a point estimate. The central analytical question is not what the DCF outputs as a single number but which growth trajectory the current market price already discounts. All DCF analysis follows CFA Institute standards and is conducted by Analysis by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory. Full methodology: DCF Valuation Framework →
What would trigger a rating upgrade or downgrade for VST?
Upgrade trigger: Upgrade to Strong Buy on evidence of accelerating earnings surprise magnitude combined with improvement in the Value factor score — specifically if the current 26.8x P/E is supported by an upward revision to DCF terminal growth assumptions. Downgrade trigger: An earnings miss at current valuations (26.8x trailing P/E) where there is limited earnings cushion to absorb negative surprises; or a sustained reversal in the Quality and Momentum factor scores for two or more consecutive quarters. Analysis by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory. Full methodology: Investment Policy Statement Framework →
Does VST consistently beat earnings estimates?
VST has beaten consensus EPS estimates in 3% of tracked quarterly periods — indicating inconsistent delivery. The most recent reported quarter beat consensus by 53.4%. Below-average earnings consistency is a primary headwind to the rating and a key watch item in the quantitative model. Earnings surprise magnitude and direction are incorporated into the Momentum and Quality dimensions of the five-factor scoring model. Analysis by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory. Full methodology: DCF Valuation Framework →
How does VST contribute to portfolio risk and diversification?
VST carries a beta of 1.45 (high-volatility / growth-sensitive relative to the broad equity market). A beta above 1.0 means the position amplifies market moves in both directions at a typical portfolio weight. Strongest peer co-movement: CEG (0.79), VRT (0.44), GEV (0.42). Holding VST alongside these names in the same portfolio increases concentration risk. True portfolio risk is a function of the full covariance structure — a single stock's beta does not reveal its marginal contribution to portfolio tail loss. The A.L. Capital Advisory Portfolio Health Check quantifies concentration risk (Herfindahl-Hirschman Index), pairwise correlations, and marginal CVaR contribution across all your holdings. Analysis by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory. Full methodology: Ledoit-Wolf Covariance Framework →
What quantitative methodology does A.L. Capital Advisory use to analyse VST?
A.L. Capital Advisory analyses Vistra Corp. (VST) using a four-component quantitative framework grounded in CFA Institute standards. (1) DCF Valuation: projects free cash flows under bear and bull assumptions, discounts at WACC to produce an intrinsic value range with margin-of-safety calculation. (2) Five-Factor Scoring: each equity is scored 1–5 on Value, Quality, Momentum, Volatility, and Size. (3) CVaR Tail Risk: 95th-percentile Conditional Value at Risk from historical simulation of daily returns on a one-month horizon. (4) Earnings Surprise Analysis: quarterly beat rate and magnitude are incorporated into the Momentum and Quality factor scores. The current Buy rating for VST is the output of applying this complete framework to current data. Analysis by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory. Full methodology: DCF Valuation Framework → · CVaR & Tail-Risk Methodology →
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This analysis is produced using a systematic quantitative framework applied to market data and does not constitute investment advice. Prose commentary is AI-assisted and generated from structured quantitative inputs. All data and metrics are as of 2026-05-31 and are point-in-time estimates subject to revision without notice. CVaR figures are based on historical simulation and do not guarantee future outcomes. DCF ranges and upgrade/downgrade triggers are forward-looking statements based on current assumptions and may not materialise. Past performance does not guarantee future results. This analysis does not account for individual circumstances, tax position, or investment objectives — consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. This content is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute regulated investment advice under MiFID II or FCA guidelines. This content is not intended for US persons or residents of jurisdictions where its distribution would be contrary to local law or regulation. This service is not directed at residents of Finland, Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Iceland, or Poland. The author may hold long or short positions in securities mentioned in this analysis. Nothing on this page represents a solicitation to buy or sell any security. A.L. Capital Advisory is an independent private advisory practice and is not affiliated with Vistra Corp.
CFA Portfolio Advisory — VST
Discuss this analysis, position sizing, or your full portfolio mandate with Anton Ladnyi, CFA.
