Industrials · Equity Analysis

GE Vernova Inc. (GEV) Stock Analysis — Price Target, Hold Rating & DCF Valuation (2026)

By Anton Ladnyi, CFA · ex-Goldman Sachs · ex-J.P. Morgan Published 2026-05-31 Updated 2026-05-31

GEV — energy transition's most visible backlog story: Q1 2026 revenue $9.34B (+17% YoY), record $163B backlog targeting $200B by 2027, $18.3B orders (+71% organically), 2026 guidance raised to $44.5–$45.5B revenue and $6.5–$7.5B FCF; electrification data center orders $2.4B in Q1 alone (more than all of 2025); primary risk is premium valuation absorbing near-term good news after +60% YTD

GEV Price Target & Rating

GEV's quantitative grade is Hold, with moderate downside risk (CVaR -11.5%), and quality metrics (net margin 24%, ROE 76%). GE Vernova Inc. (GEV) trades at $968.32 with a valuation grade of Hold: a trailing P/E of 28.3x at a 29% premium to sector median, net margins of 23.8%, a DCF-implied intrinsic range of $689–$1,170 suggesting a -4% margin of safety, beta 1.31 (moderate risk profile).

DCF Valuation Range

Key Takeaways

Valuation: Hold grade — P/E 28.3x — DCF range $689–$1,170 implies -4% margin of safety
Risk: CVaR -11.5% (95th percentile, 1-month) indicates moderate tail exposure; beta of 1.31 amplifies broad market moves in both directions
Strengths: Quality 5.0/5, Size 4.5/5, 24% net margin, 76% ROE dominate the factor profile
Catalyst: Q2 2026 earnings (July/August): first full quarter execution on raised 2026 guidance; gas power slot reservation update toward 110 GW; electrification segment reaching positive adj EBITDA margin is the most important inflection point for bull re-rating; data center grid contract wins above $3B in Q2
Bear catalyst: 2026 FCF guidance cut below $6B on cost inflation or delivery delays; backlog growth decelerates with Q2 orders below $12B; wind electrification losses widen beyond prior management trajectories; tariff escalation on imported turbine components materially raises COGS guidance above Q1 levels

GEV — Quantitative Snapshot May 2026

RatingHold

Price$968.32

Why HoldHigh-quality business at a fully-priced valuation — limited margin for error on earnings

Main riskValue score 2.5/5 signals premium pricing relative to peers

Tail riskCVaR -11.5% over one month at the 95th percentile

DCF range$689–$1,170 intrinsic range; margin of safety -4%

Best useCore large-cap Industrials holding — not a source of diversified sector exposure

Next watchEarnings surprise deceleration trend — monitor next quarter delivery closely

Quantitative Factor Profile

Value: 2.5 / 5
Quality: 5.0 / 5
Momentum: 3.0 / 5
Volatility: 2.5 / 5
Size: 4.5 / 5

Key Metrics

GEV Key Metrics — GE Vernova Inc. 2026
Metric	Value
Current Price	$968.32
P/E Ratio (TTM)	28.3x
Forward P/E	39.5x
PEG Ratio	2.17x
P/S Ratio	6.6
EV/EBITDA	74.8
Beta	1.31
Net Margin	23.8%
ROE	75.7%
Debt/Equity	24.9%
Dividend Yield	0.21%
CVaR (95%, 1M)	-11.5%
Market Cap	$260.2B

Analyst View

Anton Ladnyi, CFA · A.L. Capital Advisory Updated 2026-05-31

Rating Rationale

Investment Thesis

↑ Bull Case

Record $163B backlog — targeting $200B by 2027 (pulled forward from 2028); equipment backlog grew 80% with materially better margins; $18.3B Q1 orders (+71% organically) confirms order momentum accelerating, not normalizing; 3+ years of revenue visibility at $44–$45B run-rate with pricing reset already in place
Data center electrification orders hit $2.4B in Q1 2026 alone (more than all of 2025); gas power equipment backlog and slot reservations grew from 83 to 100 GW in a single quarter, targeting 110 GW by year-end; each incremental GW at improved pricing adds ~$100–150M in segment margin contribution
Adj EBITDA margin expanded +390bps YoY to 9.6% in Q1 as Power and Electrification pricing resets roll through; 2026 FCF guidance of $6.5–$7.5B implies ~17% FCF yield on EV; structural runway to 12–15% adj EBITDA margin as contracted backlog rolls through at new pricing over 2027–2029
S&P 100 index inclusion brings structural passive inflows and elevates GEV to institutional reference status; combined with $1.4B Q1 capital return and $10.2B cash balance, capital allocation flexibility is exceptional for an industrial company
New 2026 gas turbine pricing is 10–20% above Q4 2025 levels; with 90% of capacity contracted through 2030, price improvements flow directly to margin with no volume risk; remaining 10% capacity can be allocated to highest-bidding customers at above-market rates

↓ Bear Case

BNP Paribas downgraded post-Q1 earnings, arguing GEV's good news was 'entirely absorbed into the current share price' after +60% YTD; 90% gas turbine capacity contracted through 2030 is a ceiling on incremental order acceleration — the remaining 10% limits meaningful beats vs. the $110 GW year-end target
Electrification segment (wind, grid) has historically been loss-making; while Q1 showed margin progress, offshore wind supply chains remain tight and project permitting delays persist across multiple geographies; a single large offshore wind project cancellation impairs backlog quality and margin recognition timing
The $4.5B Prolec GE M&A gain inflated Q1 GAAP EPS to $17.44 — stripping this out, underlying adjusted EPS of $1.98 reflects a business still in margin expansion mode but not yet at terminal profitability; any execution gap in the Electrification segment margin recovery extends the timeline to double-digit EBITDA margins
Currency and tariff exposure: $163B backlog is globally distributed; USD strengthening, tariff escalation on imported turbine components (steel, rare earth magnets), or large project cancellations in Middle East/South Asia could impair delivery schedules and as-built margins vs. contract pricing

What Changes the Rating

↑ Catalyst: Adj EBITDA margin guidance raised above 11% for full year 2026; backlog reaches $175B ahead of 2027 target; Electrification segment turns adj EBITDA positive for first time; new hyperscaler data center power contract (Microsoft, Google, Amazon) announced exceeding $5B

↓ Stop / exit: 2026 FCF guidance cut below $6B on cost inflation or delivery delays; backlog growth decelerates with Q2 orders below $12B; wind electrification losses widen beyond prior management trajectories; tariff escalation on imported turbine components materially raises COGS guidance above Q1 levels

Anton’s personal note

Hold means what it says here — I am not selling, but I am not buying either. The risk/reward at current prices is roughly balanced, and roughly balanced is not enough reason to deploy fresh capital. The DCF sits close to the current price — no compelling discount, no obvious overshoot. In that setup, everything rides on the next earnings report. That is the moment I am watching: whether the delivery justifies the multiple, or whether the stock needs to come in before the risk/reward works again. Re-accelerating earnings surprise magnitude would shift my view constructive. Continued compression of beat magnitude at this multiple would move me toward a reduce.

— Anton Ladnyi, CFA

Earnings History

GEV Earnings History — EPS Surprise Rate 2026
Quarter	EPS Est.	EPS Actual	Surprise
Q1 2026	$2.00	$17.44	+7.7% ✓
Q4 2025	$3.22	$13.39	+316.1% ✓
Q3 2025	$1.86	$1.64	-11.7% ✗
Q2 2025	$1.64	$1.86	+13.4% ✓

Quarterly EPS — Estimate vs Actual

Earnings Projections

GEV Forward EPS Consensus Estimates 2026
Quarter	EPS Est.	YoY EPS	Analysts
Q2 2026	$3.13	+68.3%	15
Q3 2026	$4.35	+165.1%	14
Q4 2026	~$6.04	-54.9%	17
Q1 2027	~$6.08	-65.1%	26
~ Estimated from annual consensus — not a direct analyst survey

Earnings Projections — Consensus EPS Estimates

GEV vs. Sector Peers

GEV Peer Valuation Comparison 2026
Ticker	P/E (TTM)	Fwd P/E	Beta	CVaR-95	Net Margin
GEV	28.3x	39.5x	1.31	-11.5%	23.8%
CEG	25.0x	21.1x	1.16	-26.7%	12.7%
VST	26.8x	14.6x	1.45	-17.0%	11.5%
VRT	79.3x	35.7x	2.10	-12.4%	14.4%
ANET	55.0x	35.8x	1.67	-21.5%	38.3%

DCF Scenario Analysis

Hover each scenario for detail · current price $968.32

▼

Bear Case

$200

-79.3%

Fwd P/E: 10.2x

8% revenue CAGR · 20x exit multiple

◆

Base Case

$375

-61.3%

Fwd P/E: 19.1x

15% revenue CAGR · 28x exit multiple

▲

Bull Case

$490

-49.4%

Fwd P/E: 25.0x

22% revenue CAGR · 35x exit multiple

Pairwise Correlation Matrix

1 of 10 peer pairs correlated above 0.60 — diversification benefit within this cluster is structurally limited.

Extended Analysis — Buy, Hold or Sell? Risk Factors. Portfolio Fit.

Is GEV a buy, hold, or sell?

GEV carries a valuation grade of Hold. The trailing P/E of 28.3 sits 29% above the Industrials sector median of 22.0x — a premium that demands sustained earnings delivery. Our discounted cash flow model produces an intrinsic range of $689–$1,170 — implying a -4% margin of safety at the current price of $968.32. The width of the DCF range reflects genuine uncertainty in the terminal growth rate assumption: the correct framework is a probability-weighted distribution over scenarios, not a single point estimate. See the DCF valuation framework for full methodology.

With a 23% beat rate on recent quarters, earnings predictability has been mixed. The most recent quarter delivered a 7.7% earnings surprise. Analyst estimate revisions are trending downward.

What are GEV's key risk factors?

With a beta of 1.31, GEV exhibits an above-market risk profile relative to the broad market. The 95th-percentile CVaR of -11.5% on a one-month horizon should inform position sizing directly: at a 10% portfolio weight, this tail event contributes approximately 1.2% of total portfolio loss in the worst 5% of months. Net margins of 23.8% are significantly above the Industrials sector average of 11%, reflecting durable pricing power. Return on equity of 75.7% indicates highly efficient capital allocation. The balance sheet is conservatively leveraged at 25% debt-to-equity.

The options market shows a put/call ratio of 1.80, reflecting a notably bearish skew in derivative positioning. Implied volatility of 53.4% exceeds realized volatility of 43.8% by 10 points, suggesting options are pricing in elevated risk. Insiders have been net sellers to the tune of $5.2M recently. While routine dispositions are common, the magnitude bears watching. Short interest is low at 3.3% of float, suggesting limited bearish conviction.

How does GEV fit in a diversified portfolio?

At typical HENRY portfolio weights — 10–20% of the equity allocation — GEV carries a beta of 1.31, meaning it amplifies broad market moves proportionally. The appropriate weight is not a function of conviction alone, but of the full covariance structure across all holdings. See the Ledoit-Wolf covariance framework for the methodology behind these calculations.

Among closely correlated names, GEV shows the strongest co-movement with VRT (0.59), CEG (0.42), VST (0.42). Investors seeking diversification should note these correlation dynamics when constructing multi-asset portfolios.

True portfolio risk is a function of the full covariance structure across all holdings — not individual stock metrics. The Portfolio Health Check quantifies this at the portfolio level: it surfaces hidden concentration, marginal CVaR contributions, and the degree to which your overall allocation deviates from an optimal risk-adjusted mandate. The GEV analysis here is a single node in that larger structure.

For analysis of the structural AI infrastructure capex cycle driving demand for GEV — see our thematic deep-dive: The $7 Trillion Race: AI Infrastructure as a Decade-Long Investment Cycle.

Investor FAQ

Is GEV a buy or sell in 2026?

GE Vernova Inc. (GEV) carries a Hold quantitative rating from A.L. Capital Advisory, derived from Discounted Cash Flow intrinsic value analysis, five-factor model scoring (Value, Quality, Momentum, Volatility, Size), and CVaR tail risk measurement. At $968.32, the DCF midpoint margin of safety is -4% (intrinsic value range: $689 bear – $1,170 bull). Composite factor score: 3.5/5. Strongest factor: Quality (5.0/5). Weakest factor: Value (2.5/5). Trailing P/E: 28.3x. Analysis by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory. Full methodology: Portfolio Construction Framework →

What is the average analyst target price for GEV?

Wall Street consensus target for GEV: $1,215.86 (+25.6% upside from the current price of $968.32). The analyst target range spans $836.00 (most bearish) to $1,424.00 (most bullish). Consensus recommendation: Buy. Note that analyst price targets typically reflect a 12-month forward horizon and are derived from a blend of DCF, comparable-company, and sum-of-the-parts analysis. A.L. Capital Advisory’s quantitative Hold rating is produced independently — from DCF intrinsic value, five-factor model scores, and CVaR tail risk — and does not mechanically track Street consensus. When the two diverge, the divergence itself is informative: it can reflect differences in time horizon, valuation methodology, or the degree to which the current price already discounts the consensus case. Analysis by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory. Full methodology: Monte Carlo Simulation Framework →

How does GEV score on Value, Quality, Momentum, Volatility, and Size?

GEV five-factor scores (A.L. Capital Advisory, 1–5 scale): Value 2.5/5 (neutral) — measures current price versus DCF intrinsic range and trailing earnings multiples; Quality 5.0/5 (strong) — captures profitability metrics including return on equity, net margin (ROE: 75.7%) and net margin (23.8%); Momentum 3.0/5 (neutral) — reflects recent price trajectory and earnings surprise consistency; Volatility 2.5/5 (neutral) — inverse measure derived from beta, where lower historical volatility earns a higher score; Size 4.5/5 (strong) — market capitalisation rank (mega-cap $1T+ scores 5/5). Composite: 3.5/5. Factor scores above 4.0 signal a tailwind in that dimension; below 2.0 signals a material headwind. Analysis by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory. Full methodology: Black-Litterman Model →

What is GEV's tail risk and CVaR?

The 95th-percentile Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) for GEV on a one-month horizon is -11.5%. CVaR represents the expected average loss in the worst 5% of monthly outcomes — a more conservative tail risk measure than standard VaR, which only marks the loss threshold. Beta of 1.31 indicates above-market volatility with amplified drawdown exposure. For reference, a diversified S&P 500 ETF carries a one-month CVaR of roughly -8% to -12% in normal market conditions; individual equity CVaR is higher due to idiosyncratic risk. At the portfolio level, what matters is the marginal CVaR contribution of each holding — not its standalone figure. The A.L. Capital Advisory Portfolio Health Check quantifies each position's marginal tail-risk contribution across your entire holdings. Analysis by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory. Full methodology: CVaR & Tail-Risk Methodology →

What is GEV's intrinsic value and DCF price target?

A.L. Capital Advisory's DCF model produces an intrinsic value range of $689 (bear case) to $1,170 (bull case) for GE Vernova Inc. (GEV). At $968.32, the midpoint margin of safety is -4% (positive = discount to intrinsic mid; negative = premium). The bear-to-bull spread reflects genuine sensitivity to the two dominant DCF inputs: the terminal growth rate and WACC. Terminal value typically accounts for 60-80% of total intrinsic value in most equity DCF models, which is why a range is more analytically sound than a point estimate. The central analytical question is not what the DCF outputs as a single number but which growth trajectory the current market price already discounts. All DCF analysis follows CFA Institute standards and is conducted by Analysis by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory. Full methodology: DCF Valuation Framework →

What would trigger a rating upgrade or downgrade for GEV?

Upgrade trigger: A price pullback that opens the margin of safety beyond +15% (approximately $586 based on the DCF bear case). Downgrade trigger: An earnings miss at current valuations (28.3x trailing P/E) where there is limited earnings cushion to absorb negative surprises; or a sustained reversal in the Quality and Momentum factor scores for two or more consecutive quarters. Analysis by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory. Full methodology: Investment Policy Statement Framework →

Does GEV consistently beat earnings estimates?

GEV has beaten consensus EPS estimates in 23% of tracked quarterly periods — indicating inconsistent delivery. The most recent reported quarter beat consensus by 7.7%. Below-average earnings consistency is a primary headwind to the rating and a key watch item in the quantitative model. Earnings surprise magnitude and direction are incorporated into the Momentum and Quality dimensions of the five-factor scoring model. Analysis by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory. Full methodology: DCF Valuation Framework →

How does GEV contribute to portfolio risk and diversification?

GEV carries a beta of 1.31 (high-volatility / growth-sensitive relative to the broad equity market). A beta above 1.0 means the position amplifies market moves in both directions at a typical portfolio weight. Strongest peer co-movement: VRT (0.59), CEG (0.42), VST (0.42). Holding GEV alongside these names in the same portfolio increases concentration risk. True portfolio risk is a function of the full covariance structure — a single stock's beta does not reveal its marginal contribution to portfolio tail loss. The A.L. Capital Advisory Portfolio Health Check quantifies concentration risk (Herfindahl-Hirschman Index), pairwise correlations, and marginal CVaR contribution across all your holdings. Analysis by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory. Full methodology: Ledoit-Wolf Covariance Framework →

What quantitative methodology does A.L. Capital Advisory use to analyse GEV?

A.L. Capital Advisory analyses GE Vernova Inc. (GEV) using a four-component quantitative framework grounded in CFA Institute standards. (1) DCF Valuation: projects free cash flows under bear and bull assumptions, discounts at WACC to produce an intrinsic value range with margin-of-safety calculation. (2) Five-Factor Scoring: each equity is scored 1–5 on Value, Quality, Momentum, Volatility, and Size. (3) CVaR Tail Risk: 95th-percentile Conditional Value at Risk from historical simulation of daily returns on a one-month horizon. (4) Earnings Surprise Analysis: quarterly beat rate and magnitude are incorporated into the Momentum and Quality factor scores. The current Hold rating for GEV is the output of applying this complete framework to current data. Analysis by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory. Full methodology: DCF Valuation Framework → · CVaR & Tail-Risk Methodology →

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Valuation Framework

DCF Valuation Framework

Why terminal value drives 60–80% of equity intrinsic value — the mechanics behind P/E, EV/EBITDA, and how a 1% WACC shift moves high-multiple tech stocks ~25%.

Risk Framework

CVaR & Tail-Risk Methodology

Why variance understates downside risk in non-normal return distributions, and how Conditional Value at Risk corrects that blind spot for institutional-grade position sizing.

Allocation Framework

Black-Litterman Model

The Bayesian allocation model from Goldman Sachs — how equilibrium market returns are combined with explicit investor views to produce stable, diversified portfolios.

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Anton Ladnyi, CFA

Founder & Portfolio Architect — A.L. Capital Advisory

Ex-Goldman Sachs Equity Research · Ex-J.P. Morgan Wealth Management · CFA Charterholder

CFA Charter ↗ CFA L1 ↗ CFA L2 ↗ CFA L3 ↗ LinkedIn ↗ X ↗

Legal Disclaimer & Important Notices

This analysis is produced using a systematic quantitative framework applied to market data and does not constitute investment advice. Prose commentary is AI-assisted and generated from structured quantitative inputs. All data and metrics are as of 2026-05-31 and are point-in-time estimates subject to revision without notice. CVaR figures are based on historical simulation and do not guarantee future outcomes. DCF ranges and upgrade/downgrade triggers are forward-looking statements based on current assumptions and may not materialise. Past performance does not guarantee future results. This analysis does not account for individual circumstances, tax position, or investment objectives — consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. This content is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute regulated investment advice under MiFID II or FCA guidelines. This content is not intended for US persons or residents of jurisdictions where its distribution would be contrary to local law or regulation. This service is not directed at residents of Finland, Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Iceland, or Poland. The author may hold long or short positions in securities mentioned in this analysis. Nothing on this page represents a solicitation to buy or sell any security. A.L. Capital Advisory is an independent private advisory practice and is not affiliated with GE Vernova Inc.