Apple Inc. (AAPL) — Quantitative Forecast & Factor Scores

AAPL currently carries a valuation grade of Hold. The trailing P/E of 31.6 is roughly in line with the Technology sector median of 32.0x. Our discounted cash flow model suggests an intrinsic range of $187–$338, implying a +5% margin of safety at the current price of $249.94.

With a beta of 1.12, AAPL exhibits an above-market risk profile relative to the broad market. Net margins of 27.0% are significantly above the Technology average of 22%, reflecting strong pricing power. Return on equity of 152.0% indicates highly efficient capital allocation. Leverage is moderate with debt-to-equity at 103%.

With a 58% beat rate on recent quarters, earnings predictability has been mixed. The most recent quarter delivered a +12.9% earnings surprise. Analyst estimate revisions are trending accelerating.

Insiders have been net sellers to the tune of $416,855,074 recently. While routine dispositions are common, the magnitude bears watching. Short interest is low at 0.9% of float, suggesting limited bearish conviction.

At 0.65, the put/call ratio skews bullish, with call buyers dominating recent flow. Implied and realized volatility are roughly aligned at 25.5% and 21.4% respectively.

Among closely correlated names, AAPL shows the strongest co-movement with AMZN (0.55), GOOGL (0.50), META (0.48). Investors seeking diversification should note these correlation dynamics when constructing multi-asset portfolios.