Ferrari N.V. (RACE) — Quantitative Forecast & Factor Scores
RACE screens as quality-oriented and premium-valued — DCF model implies a +30% margin of safety at current levels.
RACE's quantitative grade is Buy, with elevated downside risk (CVaR -21.5%), and quality metrics (net margin 22%, ROE 43%). Ferrari N.V. (RACE) trades at $317.40 with a valuation grade of Buy: a trailing P/E of 30.7x at a 18% premium to sector median, net margins of 22.3%, a DCF-implied intrinsic range of $305–$519 suggesting a +30% margin of safety, beta 0.55 (defensive risk profile).
Key Takeaways
- Valuation: Buy grade — P/E 30.7x — DCF range $305–$519 implies +30% margin of safety
- Risk: CVaR -21.5% (95th percentile, 1-month) indicates moderate tail exposure; beta of 0.55 amplifies broad market moves in both directions
- Strengths: Quality 4.0/5, Size 4.0/5, 22% net margin, 43% ROE dominate the factor profile
- Watch: Value score of 2.5/5 signals premium pricing
Quantitative Factor Profile
Key Metrics
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Current Price | $317.40 |
| P/E Ratio (TTM) | 30.7x |
| Forward P/E | 25.7x |
| P/S Ratio | 7.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 24.0 |
| Beta | 0.55 |
| Net Margin | 22.3% |
| ROE | 42.9% |
| Debt/Equity | 73.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.35% |
| CVaR (95%, 1M) | -21.5% |
| Market Cap | $56.5B |
Earnings History
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $2.20 | $2.14 | -2.6% ✗ |
| Q3 2025 | $2.04 | $2.14 | +4.8% ✓ |
| Q2 2025 | $2.31 | $2.38 | +3.0% ✓ |
| Q1 2025 | $2.25 | $2.30 | +2.4% ✓ |
RACE vs. Sector Peers
| Ticker | P/E (TTM) | Beta | CVaR-95 | Net Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RACE | 30.7x | 0.55 | -21.5% | 22.3% |
| TSLA | 332.0x | 1.93 | -12.1% | 4.0% |
| AMZN | 27.8x | 1.42 | -16.6% | 10.8% |
| BRK-B | 15.1x | 0.69 | -5.9% | 18.0% |
| V | 27.8x | 0.79 | -8.0% | 50.2% |
RACE screens as a high-quality business, trading at a premium to sector peers. Three of the last four quarters beat consensus — execution is solid.
RACE trades at 30.7x trailing earnings — 18% above the Consumer Cyclical sector median of 26.0x. This combination — premium multiple, decelerating outperformance — is historically where risk/reward becomes asymmetric. Not a reason to sell; a reason to size carefully. The DCF model implies a +30% margin of safety — the risk/reward is currently skewed to the upside.
RACE earns a Buy from the model, and I agree on direction. But premium multiples concentrate the risk in execution — there is not much room for a soft quarter at 31x. What I pay attention to above all else is the earnings surprise trajectory. The beat streak is intact, but the magnitude has compressed from +2.4% to -2.6% — and at a 31x multiple, the market is not pricing in a miss. That asymmetry is worth respecting. The setup that would make me more positive is a quarter that confirms the operating leverage story. The setup that would make me cautious is any signal that consensus estimates are getting ahead of fundamentals.
Is RACE a buy, hold, or sell?
RACE carries a valuation grade of Buy. The trailing P/E of 30.7 sits 18% above the Consumer Cyclical sector median of 26.0x — a premium that demands sustained earnings delivery. Our discounted cash flow model produces an intrinsic range of $305–$519 — implying a +30% margin of safety at the current price of $317.40. The width of the DCF range reflects genuine uncertainty in the terminal growth rate assumption: the correct framework is a probability-weighted distribution over scenarios, not a single point estimate.
The company has beaten estimates in 75% of recent quarters. The most recent quarter missed by a 2.6% earnings surprise. Analyst estimate revisions are trending upward.
What are RACE's key risk factors?
With a beta of 0.55, RACE exhibits a defensive risk profile relative to the broad market. The 95th-percentile CVaR of -21.5% on a one-month horizon should inform position sizing directly: at a 10% portfolio weight, this tail event contributes approximately 2.2% of total portfolio loss in the worst 5% of months. Net margins of 22.3% are significantly above the Consumer Cyclical sector average of 10%, reflecting durable pricing power. Return on equity of 42.9% indicates highly efficient capital allocation. The balance sheet is conservatively leveraged at 74% debt-to-equity.
The options market shows a put/call ratio of 3.84, reflecting a notably bearish skew in derivative positioning. Implied volatility of 48.5% exceeds realized volatility of 30.2% by 18 points, suggesting options are pricing in elevated risk. Short interest is low at 3.6% of float, suggesting limited bearish conviction.
How does RACE fit in a diversified portfolio?
At typical HENRY portfolio weights — 10–20% of the equity allocation — RACE carries a beta of 0.55, meaning it amplifies broad market moves proportionally. The appropriate weight is not a function of conviction alone, but of the full covariance structure across all holdings. See the Ledoit-Wolf covariance framework for the methodology behind these calculations.
As a Consumer Cyclical constituent, RACE's risk profile should be evaluated alongside sector peers when constructing diversified portfolios.
True portfolio risk is a function of the full covariance structure across all holdings — not individual stock metrics. The Portfolio Health Check quantifies this at the portfolio level: it surfaces hidden concentration, marginal CVaR contributions, and the degree to which your overall allocation deviates from an optimal risk-adjusted mandate. The RACE analysis here is a single node in that larger structure.
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Launch Live Analysis →This analysis is produced using a systematic quantitative framework applied to market data and does not constitute investment advice. Prose commentary is AI-assisted and generated from structured quantitative inputs. All data and metrics are as of 2026-03-28 and are point-in-time estimates subject to revision without notice. CVaR figures are based on historical simulation and do not guarantee future outcomes. DCF ranges and upgrade/downgrade triggers are forward-looking statements based on current assumptions and may not materialise. Past performance does not guarantee future results. This analysis does not account for individual circumstances, tax position, or investment objectives — consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. This content is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute regulated investment advice under MiFID II or FCA guidelines. This content is not intended for US persons or residents of jurisdictions where its distribution would be contrary to local law or regulation. This service is not directed at residents of Finland, Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Iceland, or Poland. The author may hold long or short positions in securities mentioned in this analysis. Nothing on this page represents a solicitation to buy or sell any security. A.L. Capital Advisory is an independent private advisory practice and is not affiliated with Ferrari N.V.