By Anton Ladnyi, CFA · ex-Goldman Sachs · ex-J.P. MorganPublished Updated
RACE — Ferrari at ~$348 on ~31x forward P/E beat Q1 2026 (revenue €1.85B +6% cc, adj EPS $2.69 vs $2.37 +14% beat), FCF €610M, EBITDA margin 39.1%; FY2026 guidance confirmed (€7.5B revenue, EBITDA ≥€2.93B, EPS ≥€9.45); F80 Supercar and 296 Speciale/Amalfi/849 Testarossa in ramp; order book extends toward end of 2027.
RACE Price Target & Rating
RACE's grade is Strong Buy, with elevated downside risk (CVaR -21.5%), and quality metrics (net margin 22%, ROE 42%). Ferrari N.V. (RACE) trades at $346.56 with a valuation grade of Strong Buy: a trailing P/E of 33.5x at a 29% premium to sector median, net margins of 22.2%, a DCF-implied intrinsic range of $327–$497 suggesting a +19% margin of safety, beta 0.59 (defensive risk profile).
DCF Valuation Range
Key Takeaways
Valuation: Strong Buy grade — P/E 33.5x — DCF range $327–$497 implies +19% margin of safety
Risk: CVaR -21.5% (95th percentile, 1-month) indicates moderate tail exposure; beta of 0.59 amplifies broad market moves in both directions
Strengths: Quality 4.0/5, Size 4.0/5, 22% net margin, 42% ROE dominate the factor profile
Main riskPremium multiple (33.5x P/E) demands consistent delivery
Tail riskCVaR -21.5% over one month at the 95th percentile
DCF range$327–$497 intrinsic range; margin of safety +19%
Best useCore large-cap Consumer Cyclical holding — not a source of diversified sector exposure
Next watchEarnings delivery consistency and margin trajectory
Quantitative Factor Profile
Value
2.5 / 5
Quality
4.0 / 5
Momentum
3.0 / 5
Volatility
4.5 / 5
Size
4.0 / 5
Key Metrics
RACE Key Metrics — Ferrari N.V. 2026
Metric
Value
Current Price
$346.56
P/E Ratio (TTM)
33.5x
Forward P/E
28.0x
PEG Ratio
21.54x
P/S Ratio
8.5
EV/EBITDA
25.8
Beta
0.59
Net Margin
22.2%
ROE
42.0%
Debt/Equity
72.2%
Dividend Yield
1.22%
CVaR (95%, 1M)
-21.5%
Market Cap
$61.0B
Analyst View
Anton Ladnyi, CFA · A.L. Capital AdvisoryUpdated 2026-06-11
Rating Rationale
RACE — Ferrari at ~$348 on ~31x forward P/E beat Q1 2026 (revenue €1.85B +6% cc, adj EPS $2.69 vs $2.37 +14% beat), FCF €610M, EBITDA margin 39.1%; FY2026 guidance confirmed (€7.5B revenue, EBITDA ≥€2.93B, EPS ≥€9.45); F80 Supercar and 296 Speciale/Amalfi/849 Testarossa in ramp; order book extends toward end of 2027.
Investment Thesis
↑ Bull Case
Q1 2026 adj EPS $2.69 vs $2.37 consensus (+14% beat); FCF €610M on €1.85B revenue — >90% EBITDA-to-FCF conversion is exceptional capital efficiency
Order book extending toward end of 2027 — multi-year revenue visibility in luxury; scarcity model intentionally constrains supply creating permanent waiting lists
F80 Supercar (ultra-high-margin, €3.6M+ per unit) in ramp phase through 2026; 296 Speciale, Amalfi, 849 Testarossa deliveries commencing — high-ASP mix shift
Personalization (bespoke configurations): customers paying 30-50% premiums above list price; revenue per car is the key growth driver alongside volume
Americas region strong, offsetting Middle East/APAC softness; sponsorship revenue +14% YoY; F1 success directly drives brand equity and waitlist
↓ Bear Case
EUR appreciation vs USD compresses reported revenues (significant US buyer base paying in USD); tariff on European luxury exports to US could reduce demand
Electrification transition: first Ferrari BEV coming 2025-2026; managing ICE/hybrid/BEV mix complexity while maintaining brand integrity is non-trivial
Unit volume intentionally constrained (~3,400-3,500/year); any demand softness at ultra-HNW level is amplified; model changeover gaps reduce volume temporarily
At 31x forward P/E, Ferrari is priced as a luxury brand compounder — any Formula 1 performance disappointment or product launch issue hits the multiple
What Changes the Rating
↑Catalyst:ASP per car exceeds €300K; BEV model sold out on launch day; Formula 1 Constructors' Championship win in 2026
↓Stop / exit:FY2026 guidance cut; BEV receives negative brand reception from core collector community; order backlog falls below 18 months
Anton’s personal note
RACE is the kind of name I want to own more of, not less. The factor combination is genuinely constructive. What I pay attention to above all else is the earnings surprise trajectory. The beat streak is intact, but the magnitude has compressed from +3.0% to -1.8% — and at a 33x multiple, the market is not pricing in a miss. That asymmetry is worth respecting. The setup that would make me more positive is a quarter that confirms the operating leverage story. The setup that would make me cautious is any signal that consensus estimates are getting ahead of fundamentals.
— Anton Ladnyi, CFA
Earnings History
RACE Earnings History — EPS Surprise Rate 2026
Quarter
EPS Est.
EPS Actual
Surprise
Q1 2026
$2.37
$2.33
-1.8% ✗
Q4 2025
$2.20
$2.14
-2.6% ✗
Q3 2025
$2.04
$2.14
+4.8% ✓
Q2 2025
$2.31
$2.38
+3.0% ✓
Quarterly EPS — Estimate vs Actual
Earnings Projections
RACE Forward EPS Consensus Estimates 2026
Quarter
EPS Est.
YoY EPS
Analysts
Q2 2026
$2.43
+2.1%
2
Q3 2026
$2.40
+12.2%
2
Q4 2026
~$2.56
+19.6%
11
Q1 2027
~$2.68
+15.0%
11
~ Estimated from annual consensus — not a direct analyst survey
RACE — P/E 33.5x · Beta 0.59 • Quantitative grade: Buy • CVaR from one-year daily history · historical simulation
DCF Scenario Analysis
Hover each scenario for detail · current price $346.56
▼
Bear Case
$248
-28.4%
Fwd P/E: 24.6x
5.0 revenue CAGR · 24.0 exit multiple
◆
Base Case
$368
+6.2%
Fwd P/E: 36.5x
10.0 revenue CAGR · 32.0 exit multiple
▲
Bull Case
$520
+50.0%
Fwd P/E: 51.6x
15.0 revenue CAGR · 40.0 exit multiple
Pairwise Correlation Matrix
0 of 10 peer pairs correlated above 0.60 — diversification benefit within this cluster is structurally limited.
Extended Analysis — Buy, Hold or Sell? Risk Factors. Portfolio Fit.
Is RACE a buy, hold, or sell?
RACE carries a valuation grade of Strong Strong Buy. The trailing P/E of 33.5 sits 29% above the Consumer Cyclical sector median of 26.0x — a premium that demands sustained earnings delivery. Our discounted cash flow model produces an intrinsic range of $327–$497 — implying a +19% margin of safety at the current price of $346.56. The width of the DCF range reflects genuine uncertainty in the terminal growth rate assumption: the correct framework is a probability-weighted distribution over scenarios, not a single point estimate. See the DCF valuation framework for full methodology.
With a 6% beat rate on recent quarters, earnings predictability has been mixed. The most recent quarter missed by a 1.8% earnings surprise. Analyst estimate revisions are trending upward.
What are RACE's key risk factors?
With a beta of 0.59, RACE exhibits a defensive risk profile relative to the broad market. The 95th-percentile CVaR of -21.5% on a one-month horizon should inform position sizing directly: at a 10% portfolio weight, this tail event contributes approximately 2.2% of total portfolio loss in the worst 5% of months. Net margins of 22.2% are significantly above the Consumer Cyclical sector average of 10%, reflecting durable pricing power. Return on equity of 42.0% indicates highly efficient capital allocation. The balance sheet is conservatively leveraged at 72% debt-to-equity.
At 0.00, the put/call ratio skews bullish, with call strong buyers dominating recent flow. Implied volatility of 2.7% is below realized volatility of 38.0%, potentially making options relatively cheap. Short interest is low at 3.0% of float, suggesting limited bearish conviction.
How does RACE fit in a diversified portfolio?
At typical HENRY portfolio weights — 10–20% of the equity allocation — RACE carries a beta of 0.59, meaning it amplifies broad market moves proportionally. The appropriate weight is not a function of conviction alone, but of the full covariance structure across all holdings. See the Ledoit-Wolf covariance framework for the methodology behind these calculations.
Among closely correlated names, RACE shows the strongest co-movement with V (0.25), BRK-B (0.24), AMZN (0.15). Investors seeking diversification should note these correlation dynamics when constructing multi-asset portfolios.
True portfolio risk is a function of the full covariance structure across all holdings — not individual stock metrics. The Portfolio Health Check quantifies this at the portfolio level: it surfaces hidden concentration, marginal CVaR contributions, and the degree to which your overall allocation deviates from an optimal risk-adjusted mandate. The RACE analysis here is a single node in that larger structure.
For the portfolio construction framework underpinning RACE’s position sizing and conviction rating — including IPS guardrails, Black-Litterman allocation, and CVaR constraints — see: Investment Policy Statement Framework →
Investor FAQ
Is RACE a buy or sell in 2026?
Ferrari N.V. (RACE) carries a Strong Buy quantitative rating from A.L. Capital Advisory, derived from Discounted Cash Flow intrinsic value analysis, five-factor model scoring (Value, Quality, Momentum, Volatility, Size), and CVaR tail risk measurement. At $346.56, the DCF midpoint margin of safety is +19% (intrinsic value range: $327 bear – $497 bull). Composite factor score: 3.6/5. Strongest factor: Volatility (4.5/5). Weakest factor: Value (2.5/5). Trailing P/E: 33.5x. Analysis by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory. Full methodology: Portfolio Construction Framework →
What is the average analyst target price for RACE?
Wall Street consensus target for RACE: $436.26 (+25.9% upside from the current price of $346.56). The analyst target range spans $379.90 (most bearish) to $530.75 (most bullish). Consensus recommendation: Strong Buy. Note that analyst price targets typically reflect a 12-month forward horizon and are derived from a blend of DCF, comparable-company, and sum-of-the-parts analysis. A.L. Capital Advisory’s quantitative Strong Buy rating is produced independently — from DCF intrinsic value, five-factor model scores, and CVaR tail risk — and does not mechanically track Street consensus. When the two diverge, the divergence itself is informative: it can reflect differences in time horizon, valuation methodology, or the degree to which the current price already discounts the consensus case. Analysis by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory. Full methodology: Monte Carlo Simulation Framework →
How does RACE score on Value, Quality, Momentum, Volatility, and Size?
RACE five-factor scores (A.L. Capital Advisory, 1–5 scale): Value 2.5/5 (neutral) — measures current price versus DCF intrinsic range and trailing earnings multiples; Quality 4.0/5 (above average) — captures profitability metrics including return on equity, net margin (ROE: 42.0%) and net margin (22.2%); Momentum 3.0/5 (neutral) — reflects recent price trajectory and earnings surprise consistency; Volatility 4.5/5 (strong) — inverse measure derived from beta, where lower historical volatility earns a higher score; Size 4.0/5 (above average) — market capitalisation rank (mega-cap $1T+ scores 5/5). Composite: 3.6/5. Factor scores above 4.0 signal a tailwind in that dimension; below 2.0 signals a material headwind. Analysis by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory. Full methodology: Black-Litterman Model →
What is RACE's tail risk and CVaR?
The 95th-percentile Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) for RACE on a one-month horizon is -21.5%. CVaR represents the expected average loss in the worst 5% of monthly outcomes — a more conservative tail risk measure than standard VaR, which only marks the loss threshold. Beta of 0.59 indicates below-market volatility. For reference, a diversified S&P 500 ETF carries a one-month CVaR of roughly -8% to -12% in normal market conditions; individual equity CVaR is higher due to idiosyncratic risk. At the portfolio level, what matters is the marginal CVaR contribution of each holding — not its standalone figure. The A.L. Capital Advisory Portfolio Health Check quantifies each position's marginal tail-risk contribution across your entire holdings. Analysis by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory. Full methodology: CVaR & Tail-Risk Methodology →
What is RACE's intrinsic value and DCF price target?
A.L. Capital Advisory's DCF model produces an intrinsic value range of $327 (bear case) to $497 (bull case) for Ferrari N.V. (RACE). At $346.56, the midpoint margin of safety is +19% (positive = discount to intrinsic mid; negative = premium). The bear-to-bull spread reflects genuine sensitivity to the two dominant DCF inputs: the terminal growth rate and WACC. Terminal value typically accounts for 60-80% of total intrinsic value in most equity DCF models, which is why a range is more analytically sound than a point estimate. The central analytical question is not what the DCF outputs as a single number but which growth trajectory the current market price already discounts. All DCF analysis follows CFA Institute standards and is conducted by Analysis by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory. Full methodology: DCF Valuation Framework →
What would trigger a rating upgrade or downgrade for RACE?
Upgrade trigger: Upgrade to Strong Buy on evidence of accelerating earnings surprise magnitude combined with improvement in the Value factor score — specifically if the current 33.5x P/E is supported by an upward revision to DCF terminal growth assumptions. Downgrade trigger: An earnings miss at current valuations (33.5x trailing P/E) where there is limited earnings cushion to absorb negative surprises; or a sustained reversal in the Quality and Momentum factor scores for two or more consecutive quarters. Analysis by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory. Full methodology: Investment Policy Statement Framework →
Does RACE consistently beat earnings estimates?
RACE has beaten consensus EPS estimates in 6% of tracked quarterly periods — indicating inconsistent delivery. The most recent reported quarter missed consensus by 1.8%. Below-average earnings consistency is a primary headwind to the rating and a key watch item in the quantitative model. Earnings surprise magnitude and direction are incorporated into the Momentum and Quality dimensions of the five-factor scoring model. Analysis by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory. Full methodology: DCF Valuation Framework →
How does RACE contribute to portfolio risk and diversification?
RACE carries a beta of 0.59 (low-volatility / defensive relative to the broad equity market). A beta above 1.0 means the position amplifies market moves in both directions at a typical portfolio weight. Strongest peer co-movement: V (0.25), BRK-B (0.24), AMZN (0.15). Holding RACE alongside these names in the same portfolio increases concentration risk. True portfolio risk is a function of the full covariance structure — a single stock's beta does not reveal its marginal contribution to portfolio tail loss. The A.L. Capital Advisory Portfolio Health Check quantifies concentration risk (Herfindahl-Hirschman Index), pairwise correlations, and marginal CVaR contribution across all your holdings. Analysis by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory. Full methodology: Ledoit-Wolf Covariance Framework →
What quantitative methodology does A.L. Capital Advisory use to analyse RACE?
A.L. Capital Advisory analyses Ferrari N.V. (RACE) using a four-component quantitative framework grounded in CFA Institute standards. (1) DCF Valuation: projects free cash flows under bear and bull assumptions, discounts at WACC to produce an intrinsic value range with margin-of-safety calculation. (2) Five-Factor Scoring: each equity is scored 1–5 on Value, Quality, Momentum, Volatility, and Size. (3) CVaR Tail Risk: 95th-percentile Conditional Value at Risk from historical simulation of daily returns on a one-month horizon. (4) Earnings Surprise Analysis: quarterly beat rate and magnitude are incorporated into the Momentum and Quality factor scores. The current Strong Buy rating for RACE is the output of applying this complete framework to current data. Analysis by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory. Full methodology: DCF Valuation Framework → · CVaR & Tail-Risk Methodology →
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This analysis is produced using a systematic quantitative framework applied to market data and does not constitute investment advice. Prose commentary is AI-assisted and generated from structured quantitative inputs. All data and metrics are as of 2026-06-11 and are point-in-time estimates subject to revision without notice. CVaR figures are based on historical simulation and do not guarantee future outcomes. DCF ranges and upgrade/downgrade triggers are forward-looking statements based on current assumptions and may not materialise. Past performance does not guarantee future results. This analysis does not account for individual circumstances, tax position, or investment objectives — consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. This content is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute regulated investment advice under MiFID II or FCA guidelines. This content is not intended for US persons or residents of jurisdictions where its distribution would be contrary to local law or regulation. This service is not directed at residents of Finland, Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Iceland, or Poland. The author may hold long or short positions in securities mentioned in this analysis. Nothing on this page represents a solicitation to buy or sell any security. A.L. Capital Advisory is an independent private advisory practice and is not affiliated with Ferrari N.V.
CFA Portfolio Advisory — RACE
Discuss this analysis, position sizing, or your full portfolio mandate with Anton Ladnyi, CFA.
