Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG) — Quantitative Forecast & Factor Scores
BKNG screens as moderate-quality and fairly valued — DCF model implies a +44% margin of safety at current levels.
BKNG's quantitative grade is Buy, with elevated downside risk (CVaR -23.6%), and quality metrics (net margin 20%). Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG) trades at $4,062.14 with a valuation grade of Buy: a trailing P/E of 24.5x at a 6% discount to sector median, net margins of 20.1%, a DCF-implied intrinsic range of $4,264–$7,425 suggesting a +44% margin of safety, beta 1.23 (moderate risk profile).
Key Takeaways
- Valuation: Buy grade — P/E 24.5x — DCF range $4,264–$7,425 implies +44% margin of safety
- Risk: CVaR -23.6% (95th percentile, 1-month) indicates moderate tail exposure; beta of 1.23 amplifies broad market moves in both directions
- Strengths: Size 4.0/5, 20% net margin dominate the factor profile
- Watch: Monitor earnings delivery — premium multiples leave limited margin for misses
Quantitative Factor Profile
Key Metrics
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Current Price | $4,062.14 |
| P/E Ratio (TTM) | 24.5x |
| Forward P/E | 13.0x |
| P/S Ratio | 4.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.9 |
| Beta | 1.23 |
| Net Margin | 20.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.97% |
| CVaR (95%, 1M) | -23.6% |
| Market Cap | $130.9B |
Earnings History
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $48.67 | $48.80 | +0.3% ✓ |
| Q3 2025 | $95.92 | $99.50 | +3.7% ✓ |
| Q2 2025 | $50.40 | $55.40 | +9.9% ✓ |
| Q1 2025 | $17.57 | $24.81 | +41.2% ✓ |
BKNG vs. Sector Peers
| Ticker | P/E (TTM) | Beta | CVaR-95 | Net Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BKNG | 24.5x | 1.23 | -23.6% | 20.1% |
| AMZN | 27.8x | 1.42 | -16.6% | 10.8% |
| GOOGL | 25.4x | 1.11 | -10.4% | 32.8% |
| META | 22.4x | 1.28 | -19.2% | 30.1% |
| RACE | 30.7x | 0.55 | -21.5% | 22.3% |
BKNG screens as a fundamentally sound business, at a broadly fair valuation. The four-quarter earnings beat streak is constructive, but the compression in surprise magnitude — from +41.2% to +0.3% — is a warning flag that market expectations are increasingly demanding.
BKNG trades at 24.5x trailing earnings, in line with the sector. The DCF model implies a +44% margin of safety — the risk/reward is currently skewed to the upside.
The model rates this a Buy, and the DCF case is real — the margin of safety is wide enough to absorb some delivery variance. That gives me more conviction here than the factor scores alone would suggest. The DCF gap is striking — the model sees 44% upside, and market consensus is not pricing it. I watch for the catalyst that closes that gap: an earnings beat that resets forward estimates, a sector re-rating, or a margin inflection. Without a visible catalyst, valuation gaps can stay wide longer than logic suggests they should. If the thesis holds across the next two quarters, I would be comfortable carrying this at a meaningful weight. If not — specifically, if margins disappoint or the earnings beat streak breaks — I would reduce before the market fully reprices.
Is BKNG a buy, hold, or sell?
BKNG carries a valuation grade of Buy. The trailing P/E of 24.5 sits broadly in line with the Consumer Cyclical sector median of 26.0x. Our discounted cash flow model produces an intrinsic range of $4,264–$7,425 — implying a +44% margin of safety at the current price of $4,062.14. The width of the DCF range reflects genuine uncertainty in the terminal growth rate assumption: the correct framework is a probability-weighted distribution over scenarios, not a single point estimate.
BKNG has beaten consensus estimates in 100% of recent quarters, signalling strong execution consistency. The most recent quarter delivered a 27.0% earnings surprise. Analyst estimate revisions are trending upward.
What are BKNG's key risk factors?
With a beta of 1.23, BKNG exhibits an above-market risk profile relative to the broad market. The 95th-percentile CVaR of -23.6% on a one-month horizon should inform position sizing directly: at a 10% portfolio weight, this tail event contributes approximately 2.4% of total portfolio loss in the worst 5% of months. Net margins of 20.1% are significantly above the Consumer Cyclical sector average of 10%, reflecting durable pricing power.
At 0.45, the put/call ratio skews bullish, with call buyers dominating recent flow. Implied volatility of 47.2% exceeds realized volatility of 41.1% by 6 points, suggesting options are pricing in elevated risk. Insiders have been net sellers to the tune of $81.9M recently. While routine dispositions are common, the magnitude bears watching. Short interest is low at 3.0% of float, suggesting limited bearish conviction.
How does BKNG fit in a diversified portfolio?
At typical HENRY portfolio weights — 10–20% of the equity allocation — BKNG carries a beta of 1.23, meaning it amplifies broad market moves proportionally. The appropriate weight is not a function of conviction alone, but of the full covariance structure across all holdings. See the Ledoit-Wolf covariance framework for the methodology behind these calculations.
As a Consumer Cyclical constituent, BKNG's risk profile should be evaluated alongside sector peers when constructing diversified portfolios.
True portfolio risk is a function of the full covariance structure across all holdings — not individual stock metrics. The Portfolio Health Check quantifies this at the portfolio level: it surfaces hidden concentration, marginal CVaR contributions, and the degree to which your overall allocation deviates from an optimal risk-adjusted mandate. The BKNG analysis here is a single node in that larger structure.
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Launch Live Analysis →This analysis is produced using a systematic quantitative framework applied to market data and does not constitute investment advice. Prose commentary is AI-assisted and generated from structured quantitative inputs. All data and metrics are as of 2026-03-28 and are point-in-time estimates subject to revision without notice. CVaR figures are based on historical simulation and do not guarantee future outcomes. DCF ranges and upgrade/downgrade triggers are forward-looking statements based on current assumptions and may not materialise. Past performance does not guarantee future results. This analysis does not account for individual circumstances, tax position, or investment objectives — consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. This content is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute regulated investment advice under MiFID II or FCA guidelines. This content is not intended for US persons or residents of jurisdictions where its distribution would be contrary to local law or regulation. This service is not directed at residents of Finland, Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Iceland, or Poland. The author may hold long or short positions in securities mentioned in this analysis. Nothing on this page represents a solicitation to buy or sell any security. A.L. Capital Advisory is an independent private advisory practice and is not affiliated with Booking Holdings Inc.