Tesla Inc. (TSLA) — Quantitative Forecast & Factor Scores

TSLA currently carries a valuation grade of Reduce. At a trailing P/E of 363.7, the stock trades at a 1299% premium to the Consumer Cyclical sector median of 26.0x. Our discounted cash flow model suggests an intrinsic range of $99–$460, implying a -29% margin of safety at the current price of $392.78.

With a beta of 1.93, TSLA exhibits a highly aggressive risk profile relative to the broad market. Net margins of 4.0% fall below the Consumer Cyclical average of 10%, suggesting potential margin pressure. Return on equity stands at 4.9%. The balance sheet is conservatively leveraged at 18% debt-to-equity.

With a 58% beat rate on recent quarters, earnings predictability has been mixed. The most recent quarter delivered a +650.3% earnings surprise. Analyst estimate revisions are trending accelerating.

Insider transactions show net buying of $277,500,246 over the trailing period, a signal often associated with management confidence. Short interest is low at 1.8% of float, suggesting limited bearish conviction.

A put/call ratio of 1.10 indicates roughly balanced sentiment in the options market. Implied volatility of 14.6% is below realized volatility of 29.4%, potentially making options relatively cheap.

Among closely correlated names, TSLA shows the strongest co-movement with RIVN (0.37), F (0.34), GM (0.34). Investors seeking diversification should note these correlation dynamics when constructing multi-asset portfolios.