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Financials · Equity Analysis
The Carlyle Group Inc. (CG) Stock Analysis - DCF Valuation & AI Disruption Risk
By Anton Ladnyi, CFA · ex-Goldman Sachs · ex-J.P. MorganPublished Updated
CG — Q2 2026 (reported 8/5, today) beat across the board: distributable earnings per share $1.07 vs. $0.94 consensus, total segment revenue ~$1.11-1.12B vs. ~$920M estimate (+29% YoY), AUM $485B (beat the $480.2B estimate), Fee-Related Earnings $358M (+10.8% YoY) — Carlyle's highest distributable earnings in nearly four years; shares rose ~1.7% premarket to ~$44.71, still well below the 52-week high near $69.85 and below several recently-cut analyst targets (Citizens $70, Barclays $57, BMO $52, Morgan Stanley $57 Hold). The JPMorgan interest in Carlyle Global Credit remains unconfirmed speculative chatter (traced to CEO Jamie Dimon's June 5 comments about a possible $10-20B deal 'over the next couple of years') with no formal deal announced as of this update.
Composite rating with analyst overlay — not individualized investment advice.
How Is This Rating Calculated?
A.L. Capital Advisory Equity Composite model · calculated 2026-08-08. Four calculation steps, in order — steps 1, 2 and 4 are rules-based; step 3 is a disclosed qualitative analyst overlay mapped to a fixed numerical scale:
1. Margin of safety → quantitative grade
CG's margin of safety is +14.20% (base case $56 vs. price $47.79). Margin of safety here is defined as (fair value − price) / fair value — this is the formula the quant grade below is actually assigned from. It is not the same figure as the gauge's "Upside to Base" pill above, which uses (fair value − price) / price and will read a larger number for the same inputs. For comparison, the pure (unblended) DCF output alone implies a margin of safety of +7.65% (pure DCF base $52 vs. price $47.79) — the gap between this and the +14.20% blended figure above reflects the analyst-consensus blend.
Rules are cumulative (multiple can fire on the same ticker) and purely mechanical — no analyst judgment is involved in step 2.
3. Thesis conviction modifier
Analyst conviction: medium · modifier: +0.00. This is a qualitative analyst judgment on the written thesis, mapped to a fixed numeric modifier below — it is not algorithmically derived from a measurable indicator.
Analyst-conviction modifier scale
Conviction level
Modifier
Very High
+1.00
High
+0.60
Medium
+0.00
Low
-0.60
Very Low
-1.00
General guidance for the assigning analyst (not an algorithmic rule — conviction is assigned by editorial judgment on the written thesis, not computed): Very High/High — multiple thesis pillars confirmed by the most recent reported quarter, no unresolved red flags. Medium — mixed evidence, or a thesis not yet differentiated enough to lean either direction. Low/Very Low — one or more thesis pillars deteriorating, or a material data-quality concern. Assigned and reviewed each time the underlying thesis is updated (see the thesis "last updated" date on this page).
This is the exact formula the model runs — not a post-hoc explanation. Source: composite_grade.py, A.L. Capital Advisory Equity Composite.
CG Price Target & Rating
CG's composite rating is Reduce (quantitative grade: Hold), with elevated downside risk (CVaR -20.4%), and quality metrics (net margin 13%, ROE 8%). The Carlyle Group Inc. (CG) trades at $47.79 with a Reduce composite rating and a quantitative grade of Hold: a trailing P/E of 33.4x at a 139% premium to sector median, net margins of 13.0%, a blended fair-value range of $46–$71 suggesting a +14% margin of safety, beta 1.82 (highly aggressive risk profile).
What Is CG's DCF Intrinsic Value and Blended Fair Value Range?
CG's blended fair-value range is $46–$71 (base case $56), against a current price of $47.79.
CG blended fair-value gauge — bear case $46, base case $56, bull case $71, current price $47.79.
Price & DCF data as of
How Does CG's Margin of Safety Change as the Price Moves?
Drag to simulate CG's price moving between the blended bear ($46) and bull ($71) fair-value anchors — left for a price fall, right for a rise — and see how the margin of safety vs A.L. Capital Advisory's $56 blended base-case fair value changes. Starting point: the page's as-of price of $47.79 on 2026-08-08.
DCF Assumptions
Two-stage earnings-based DCF on forward EPS of $5.11 (Yahoo Finance forwardEps: provider-aggregated next-fiscal-year consensus estimate, not a fixed trailing-12-month window): explicit 5-year forecast at the stage-1 growth rate below, discounted at the CAPM cost of equity, plus a Gordon Growth terminal value at the terminal growth rate, also discounted at the CAPM cost of equity. This model discounts projected EPS — an equity-level metric — directly, not free cash flow, so the cost of equity is the theoretically correct discount rate; this is not a debt-weighted WACC (no cost of debt or capital-structure weighting is applied). Source: A.L. Capital Advisory DCF engine (api.py).
DCF assumptions by scenario
Input
Bear
Base
Bull
Stage-1 (near-term) growth
3.60%
8.00%
12.00%
Terminal growth
2.00%
2.00%
2.00%
CAPM cost of equity (discount rate)
15.88%
14.70%
13.52%
Forecast horizon
5 years
5 years
5 years
CAPM cost of equity = risk-free rate (4.66%, a live 10-year Treasury yield (Yahoo Finance ^TNX) fetched at page-generation time, 2026-08-08T09:56:39+00:00 UTC) + beta (1.82) × 5.5% equity risk premium, floored at 6% and capped at 18%. Stage-1 growth is a sector-level base rate (bear/bull apply 0.45x/1.50x multipliers); terminal growth is held constant across scenarios. Bear/bull cost of equity applies a ±8% relative adjustment to the base rate, clamped to the same 6–18% band.
The DCF output above is not the final intrinsic value shown elsewhere on this page. It is blended with the Wall Street analyst consensus price target to avoid extreme single-model divergence, weighted by analyst coverage depth (17 analysts covering this stock → 35.00% DCF / 65.00% consensus). The blended figure is the intrinsic value used for margin-of-safety and the composite rating.
DCF-to-intrinsic-value blend by scenario
Scenario
Pure DCF value
Analyst target used
Blended intrinsic value (displayed)
Bear
$39.92
$49.00
$45.82
Base
$51.75
$57.82
$55.70
Bull
$66.78
$73.00
$70.82
Blended value = (35.00% × pure DCF) + (65.00% × analyst target). Bear/bull scenarios blend against the analyst low/high target rather than the mean.
Analyst-coverage-to-consensus-weight tiers
Analyst coverage
Weight
0–1 analysts
0.00% consensus / 100.00% DCF
2–4 analysts
40.00% consensus / 60.00% DCF
5–19 analysts
65.00% consensus / 35.00% DCF
20+ analysts
75.00% consensus / 25.00% DCF
The consensus weight is a fixed step function of analyst coverage depth (above), not adjusted for target age, dispersion, or outliers — the mean/low/high analyst targets are used as reported by the data provider with no filtering.
Key Takeaways
Valuation: Reduce composite rating; Hold quantitative grade — P/E 33.4x — blended fair-value range $46–$71 implies +14% margin of safety
Risk: CVaR -20.4% (95th percentile, 1-month) indicates moderate tail exposure; beta of 1.82 amplifies broad market moves in both directions
Strengths: 13% net margin, 8% ROE dominate the factor profile
Catalyst: Very Group sale completion (£2bn, timeline H2 2026); any formalization (or denial) of JPMorgan interest in Carlyle Global Credit; Q3 2026 earnings (expected early November 2026) — test of whether Q2's beat was the start of a trend or another single-quarter data point in a volatile GAAP-earnings pattern.
Bear catalyst: JPMorgan interest is explicitly denied or Dimon walks back the comments; Q3 2026 reverts to GAAP volatility/miss pattern similar to Q1; Very Group sale process stalls or is abandoned; AUM growth decelerates back below 5% YoY.
CG — Quantitative SnapshotAugust 2026
RatingReduce
Price$47.79
Why ReduceModestly above estimated intrinsic value — risk/reward skewed to the downside at current price; watch for a pullback to the Hold boundary
Main riskPremium multiple (33.4x P/E) demands consistent delivery
Tail riskCVaR -20.4% over one month at the 95th percentile
Blended fair-value range$46–$71 blended fair-value range; margin of safety +14%
Best useCore large-cap Financials holding — not a source of diversified sector exposure
Next watchEarnings delivery consistency and margin trajectory
How Does CG Score on the Five-Factor Quantitative Model?
CG's composite five-factor score is 2.2/5, led by Momentum (3.0/5) and weakest on Quality (1.0/5).
CG five-factor radar — Value 2.0, Quality 1.0, Momentum 3.0, Volatility 2.0, Size 3.0 (out of 5).
Value
2.0 / 5
Quality
1.0 / 5
Momentum
3.0 / 5
Volatility
2.0 / 5
Size
3.0 / 5
CG Five-Factor Quantitative Scores
Factor
Score
Value
2.0 / 5
Quality
1.0 / 5
Momentum
3.0 / 5
Volatility
2.0 / 5
Size
3.0 / 5
What Is CG's AI-Era Durability and Disruption Risk?
AI Disruption Risk: Low
Carlyle's AI-infrastructure story is genuinely thinner than its large-cap peers: rather than building a dedicated mega-fund, the firm largely monetized its main digital-infrastructure asset, agreeing in July 2026 to sell Copia Power -- a platform with 2.6 GW of operating power assets and over 9 GW of data-center pipeline -- to EQT's newly raised infrastructure fund, while its direct AI-infra exposure is limited to smaller stakes like a $240 million position in India's Nxtra. Total AUM reached $485 billion in Q2 2026, up a modest 4% year-over-year, with no comparable perpetual-capital AI-infrastructure vehicle to KKR's Helix or Blue Owl's ODI franchise, meaning Carlyle both avoids some of the circular-financing risk building up at peers and forgoes a chunk of the associated fee upside. The signal to watch is whether Carlyle launches a dedicated digital-infrastructure fund to compete for AI-driven fee growth, or continues its current opportunistic, exit-oriented posture.
Key Metrics
CG Key Metrics — The Carlyle Group Inc. 2026
Metric
Value
Current Price
$47.79
P/E Ratio (TTM)
33.4x
Forward P/E
9.4x
P/S Ratio
6.1
Beta
1.82
Net Margin
13.0%
ROE
7.8%
Debt/Equity
197.6%
Dividend Yield
2.86%
CVaR (95%, 1M)
-20.4%
Market Cap
$17.2B
1-Month CVaR Methodology
The 1M CVaR-95 figure shown in Key Metrics, the peer comparison table and this page's hero card is computed as follows:
Lookback: most recent 1 year of daily prices.
Return input: daily log returns on dividend/split-adjusted close prices.
Confidence level: 95% (worst 5% of the resulting rolling-month observations).
Quantile convention: floor-based cutoff — the worst floor(N × 0.05) rolling-month observations (minimum 1), not a rounded or interpolated percentile.
CVaR: arithmetic mean of that worst-5% tail, expressed as a percentage.
Corporate actions: reflected via adjusted-close pricing (dividends and splits are accounted for).
1M CVaR-95 by lookback window
Method
1M CVaR-95
Trailing 1-year historical
-20.4%
Trailing 3-year historical
-19.9%
Trailing 5-year historical
-21.0%
The 1-year figure is what appears elsewhere on this page. Because it is built from overlapping 21-day windows over a single year, it reflects roughly the last ~11 non-independent tail events and is sensitive to the specific market regime of that year — treat it as a trailing-window historical estimate, not a structurally stable long-run risk parameter. The 3- and 5-year figures use the same methodology over longer, more regime-diverse histories.
This is a separate calculation from the 1-Day VaR/CVaR shown in the Tail Risk Profile chart below, which uses raw (non-overlapping) daily returns rather than rolling monthly sums — see that chart's own methodology note for the daily-horizon convention.
Tail Risk Profile
Historical Simulation · Daily Log Returns
CG — Daily Return Distribution
The Carlyle Group Inc. · 250 trading days · CVaR illustrated on real data
Aug 2025 – Aug 2026
Daily log returns
95%
-4.14%
1-Day VaR · 95%
95th-percentile loss threshold
-5.40%
1-Day CVaR · 95%
Avg loss in tail
13
Days in tail
of 250 sessions
250
Daily returns
Aug 2025 – Aug 2026
Historical VaR uses the nearest-rank convention: the worst observation within the tail (empirical (1−confidence) fraction of trading days). Historical CVaR is the arithmetic mean of all observations at or below that VaR threshold — so VaR is always included inside the CVaR tail, not one observation outside it.
Anton Ladnyi, CFA · A.L. Capital AdvisoryUpdated 2026-08-08
Rating Rationale
CG — Q2 2026 (reported 8/5, today) beat across the board: distributable earnings per share $1.07 vs. $0.94 consensus, total segment revenue ~$1.11-1.12B vs. ~$920M estimate (+29% YoY), AUM $485B (beat the $480.2B estimate), Fee-Related Earnings $358M (+10.8% YoY) — Carlyle's highest distributable earnings in nearly four years; shares rose ~1.7% premarket to ~$44.71, still well below the 52-week high near $69.85 and below several recently-cut analyst targets (Citizens $70, Barclays $57, BMO $52, Morgan Stanley $57 Hold). The JPMorgan interest in Carlyle Global Credit remains unconfirmed speculative chatter (traced to CEO Jamie Dimon's June 5 comments about a possible $10-20B deal 'over the next couple of years') with no formal deal announced as of this update.
Investment Thesis
↑ Bull Case
Distributable earnings per share of $1.07 beat the $0.94 consensus by 13.8%, and total segment revenue of ~$1.11-1.12B beat the ~$920M estimate by roughly 20% — Carlyle's highest distributable earnings quarter in nearly four years, a clean and broad-based beat rather than a narrow one
AUM reached $485B (beating the $480.2B estimate) with Fee-Related Earnings up 10.8% YoY to $358M — both scale and the underlying fee-profitability engine grew together this quarter, addressing the prior bear-case concern about AUM growth lagging peers
This quarter directly reverses the prior quarter's narrative: Q1 2026 revenue had missed estimates by ~70% (largely on unrealized fair-value marks) and had been the key data point behind the bear case on GAAP volatility — Q2's clean beat shows that volatility can cut in Carlyle's favor too, not just against it
AlpInvest secondaries/co-investment platform and the Very Group sale process (still pending, targeted at a £2bn valuation after being acquired for £1 in November 2025) remain unresolved optionality not yet reflected in this quarter's beat
$0.35/share quarterly dividend maintained (record date August 17, payable August 26) signals continued capital-return consistency through the earnings volatility of the past two quarters
↓ Bear Case
Despite the beat, shares only rose ~1.7% premarket to ~$44.71 — a muted reaction relative to the magnitude of the EPS/revenue beat, and the stock remains far below both its 52-week high (~$69.85) and several analyst price targets that were cut heading into the print (Citizens to $70 from $75, Barclays to $57 from $63, BMO to $52 from $60, Morgan Stanley to a Hold rating on 7/21)
The JPMorgan-Carlyle Global Credit acquisition remains entirely speculative — sourced to a single New York Post report citing a private equity executive after Dimon's Bernstein conference remarks about wanting deals 'if it makes sense,' not a confirmed process or announced transaction; the bull case should not treat this as a near-term catalyst until a formal process is disclosed
Two consecutive quarters of GAAP-vs-consensus volatility (Q1's ~70% miss driven by unrealized fair-value losses, now Q2's large beat) make it harder for the market to trust any single quarter's print at face value, which may explain the muted stock reaction to a genuinely strong result
Exit-market conditions and realized performance revenue remain the swing factor for whether this quarter's fee-earnings strength translates into a sustained re-rating, and that has not yet been demonstrated across multiple consecutive quarters
What Changes the Rating
↑Catalyst:A formal sale process for Carlyle Global Credit is confirmed (JPMorgan or another acquirer); Very Group sale closes near the £2bn target; Q3 2026 results confirm the Q2 beat wasn't a one-off by showing continued FRE/AUM growth.
↓Model downgrade conditions:JPMorgan interest is explicitly denied or Dimon walks back the comments; Q3 2026 reverts to GAAP volatility/miss pattern similar to Q1; Very Group sale process stalls or is abandoned; AUM growth decelerates back below 5% YoY.
Anton’s personal note
The rating on CG is driven by a factor profile that is genuinely mixed — there is no clean narrative here, which is itself a signal worth taking seriously. What I watch on this name is earnings consistency — specifically whether delivery against consensus is stable or deteriorating. That is usually where the rating gets confirmed or challenged before the price reflects it. The scenario that changes my read is a genuine valuation reset — not a small pullback, but a re-rating that reflects the actual risk profile. Until that happens, the risk/reward is not there.
— Anton Ladnyi, CFA
Earnings History
CG Earnings History — EPS Surprise Rate 2026
Quarter
EPS Est. (consensus)
EPS Actual (adjusted, consensus basis)
Surprise
Q2 2026
$0.91
$1.07
+18.0% ✓
Q1 2026
$0.92
$0.89
-2.8% ✗
Q4 2025
$0.99
$1.01
+1.7% ✓
Q3 2025
$1.02
$0.96
-5.8% ✗
EPS Actual is on the same adjusted/non-GAAP basis as the consensus estimate it is compared against (excludes one-time items, consistent with how Wall Street EPS estimates are typically constructed) — it will generally differ from the company's GAAP diluted EPS as reported in its official financial statements. Verify the GAAP figure against the issuer's original earnings release if that basis is what you need.
How Has CG Performed vs. Wall Street EPS Estimates?
CG has beaten consensus EPS estimates in 2 of the last 4 reported quarters (50%).
CG quarterly EPS — estimate vs. actual, 4 most recent reported quarters, 50% beat rate.
Earnings Projections
CG Forward EPS Consensus Estimates 2026
Quarter
EPS Est.
YoY EPS
Analysts
Q3 2026
$1.06
+10.4%
14
Q4 2026
$0.62
-38.4%
14
Q1 2027
~$0.89
+0.0%
17
~ Estimated from annual consensus — not a direct analyst survey
What Are Wall Street's EPS Estimates for CG?
Wall Street's next-quarter consensus EPS estimate for CG is $1.08.
CG consensus EPS estimates, next quarter $1.08, 4 quarters shown.
CG — P/E 33.4x · Beta 1.82 • Composite rating: Reduce · Quantitative grade: Hold • CVaR from one-year daily history · historical simulation
Editorial Analyst Scenarios
Revenue growth × exit multiple (editorial, not mechanically reproducible from disclosed inputs) · hover each scenario for detail · current price $47.79
▼
Bear Case
$40
-16.3%
Implied NTM P/E: 11.0x (target ÷ next-4Q consensus EPS — distinct from the exit multiple below, which is applied to a later-year EPS estimate)
8% revenue CAGR · 10 exit multiple
◆
Base Case
$65
+36.0%
Implied NTM P/E: 17.8x (target ÷ next-4Q consensus EPS — distinct from the exit multiple below, which is applied to a later-year EPS estimate)
12% revenue CAGR · 14 exit multiple
▲
Bull Case
$120
+151.1%
Implied NTM P/E: 32.9x (target ÷ next-4Q consensus EPS — distinct from the exit multiple below, which is applied to a later-year EPS estimate)
20% revenue CAGR · 20 exit multiple
How Correlated Is CG With Its Sector Peers?
10 of 10 peer pairs correlated above 0.60, indicating limited historical diversification benefit within this cluster — most pairs tend to move together.
CG pairwise correlation heatmap across 5 peers — 10 of 10 pairs above 0.60.
10 of 10 peer pairs correlated above 0.60, indicating limited historical diversification benefit within this cluster — most pairs tend to move together.
Extended Analysis — Buy, Hold or Sell? Risk Factors. Portfolio Fit.
Is CG a buy, hold, or sell?
CG carries a quantitative grade of Hold. The trailing P/E of 33.4 sits 139% above the Financials sector median of 14.0x — a premium that demands sustained earnings delivery. Our two-stage, EPS-based DCF model produces a pure model range of $40–$67. After blending with Street consensus targets, the displayed fair-value range is $46–$71 — implying a +14% margin of safety vs. blended base fair value at the current price of $47.79. The width of the range reflects genuine uncertainty in the terminal growth rate assumption: the correct framework is a probability-weighted distribution over scenarios, not a single point estimate. See the DCF valuation framework for full methodology.
With a 50% beat rate over the last 4 reported quarters, earnings predictability has been mixed. The most recent quarter delivered a 18.0% earnings surprise. Analyst estimate revisions are trending upward.
What are CG's key risk factors?
With a beta of 1.82, CG exhibits a highly aggressive risk profile relative to the broad market. The 95th-percentile CVaR of -20.4% on a one-month horizon should inform position sizing directly: at a 10% portfolio weight, this standalone tail outcome corresponds to approximately 2.0% of portfolio value before accounting for correlations with other holdings — not a marginal portfolio CVaR contribution, which depends on the full covariance structure. Net margins of 13.0% fall below the Financials sector average of 28%, suggesting margin pressure. Leverage is moderate with debt-to-equity at 198%.
At 0.04, the put/call ratio skews bullish, with call buyers dominating recent flow. Implied volatility of 46.2% exceeds realized volatility of 37.7% by 8 points, suggesting options are pricing in elevated risk. Insiders have been net sellers to the tune of $116.1M over the disclosed transactions from 2024-08-26 to 2026-07-31. While routine dispositions are common, the magnitude bears watching. Short interest stands at 6.0% of float, a moderate level.
How does CG fit in a diversified portfolio?
At typical HENRY portfolio weights — 10–20% of the equity allocation — CG carries a beta of 1.82, meaning it amplifies broad market moves proportionally. The appropriate weight is not a function of conviction alone, but of the full covariance structure across all holdings. See the Ledoit-Wolf covariance framework for the methodology behind these calculations.
Among closely correlated names, CG shows the strongest co-movement with KKR (0.77), BX (0.76), ARES (0.71). Investors seeking diversification should note these correlation dynamics when constructing multi-asset portfolios. With the top peer correlation at 0.77, adding CG to a portfolio that already holds these names provides limited marginal diversification benefit — particularly during stress events when correlations converge toward 1.0.
True portfolio risk is a function of the full covariance structure across all holdings — not individual stock metrics. The Portfolio Health Check quantifies this at the portfolio level: it surfaces hidden concentration, marginal CVaR contributions, and the degree to which your overall allocation deviates from an optimal risk-adjusted mandate. The CG analysis here is a single node in that larger structure.
What is CG's AI-Era Durability & Disruption Risk Score?
Carlyle's AI-infrastructure story is genuinely thinner than its large-cap peers: rather than building a dedicated mega-fund, the firm largely monetized its main digital-infrastructure asset, agreeing in July 2026 to sell Copia Power -- a platform with 2.6 GW of operating power assets and over 9 GW of data-center pipeline -- to EQT's newly raised infrastructure fund, while its direct AI-infra exposure is limited to smaller stakes like a $240 million position in India's Nxtra. Total AUM reached $485 billion in Q2 2026, up a modest 4% year-over-year, with no comparable perpetual-capital AI-infrastructure vehicle to KKR's Helix or Blue Owl's ODI franchise, meaning Carlyle both avoids some of the circular-financing risk building up at peers and forgoes a chunk of the associated fee upside. The signal to watch is whether Carlyle launches a dedicated digital-infrastructure fund to compete for AI-driven fee growth, or continues its current opportunistic, exit-oriented posture.
What is CG's intrinsic value and DCF price target?
A.L. Capital Advisory's model produces a blended fair-value range (25% pure DCF, 75% analyst consensus for well-covered names) of $46 (bear case) to $71 (bull case) for The Carlyle Group Inc. (CG). At $47.79, the margin of safety vs. blended base case is +14% (positive = discount to fair value; negative = premium). The bear-to-bull spread reflects genuine sensitivity to the two dominant DCF inputs: the terminal growth rate and the CAPM cost of equity (this model discounts EPS, an equity-level metric, so the cost of equity rather than a debt-weighted WACC is the applicable discount rate). Terminal value typically accounts for 60-80% of total intrinsic value in most equity DCF models, which is why a range is more analytically sound than a point estimate. The central analytical question is not what the DCF outputs as a single number but which growth trajectory the current market price already discounts. All DCF analysis follows CFA Institute standards and is conducted by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory. Full methodology: DCF Valuation Framework →
Is CG a buy or sell in 2026?
The Carlyle Group Inc. (CG) carries a Reduce composite rating from A.L. Capital Advisory, consisting of a Hold quantitative grade plus an analyst-conviction overlay. The quantitative grade is set by margin-of-safety band; the overlay is an additive analyst adjustment disclosed in the page's rating-calculation breakdown. Five-factor model scoring (Value, Quality, Momentum, Volatility, Size) and CVaR tail-risk measurement are shown separately on the page and are not inputs to this specific composite-rating formula. At $47.79, the margin of safety vs. blended base fair value is +14% (blended fair-value range: $46 bear – $71 bull). That places the current price in the Fair Range zone of A.L. Capital Advisory's DCF framework, which sets the quantitative grade component before the analyst-conviction overlay is applied. Composite factor score: 2.2/5. Strongest factor: Momentum (3.0/5). Weakest factor: Quality (1.0/5). Trailing P/E: 33.4x. Analysis by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory. Full methodology: Rating Methodology (this page) →
What is the average analyst target price for CG?
Wall Street consensus target for CG: $57.82 (+21.0% upside from the current price of $47.79). The analyst target range spans $49.00 (most bearish) to $73.00 (most bullish). Consensus recommendation: Buy. Note that analyst price targets typically reflect a 12-month forward horizon and are derived from a blend of DCF, comparable-company, and sum-of-the-parts analysis. A.L. Capital Advisory's Reduce composite rating is calculated from the blended margin-of-safety grade, applicable automatic fundamental penalties, and a disclosed qualitative analyst-conviction overlay — not from five-factor scores or CVaR, which are supporting diagnostics shown elsewhere on this page. The displayed blended fair value combines the standalone DCF output with Street consensus for well-covered names (see the DCF Assumptions box for the exact blend weight), so it does not track Street consensus mechanically, but it is not fully independent of it either. When the composite rating and the Street consensus recommendation diverge, the divergence itself is informative: it can reflect differences in time horizon, valuation methodology, or the degree to which the current price already discounts the consensus case. Analysis by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory. Full methodology: Data & Sources (this page) →
How does CG score on Value, Quality, Momentum, Volatility, and Size?
CG five-factor scores (A.L. Capital Advisory, 1–5 scale): Value 2.0/5 (below average) — measures the trailing P/E multiple versus the sector median (not the DCF or blended fair-value range, which are separate metrics on this page); Quality 1.0/5 (weak) — captures profitability metrics including return on equity (ROE: 7.8%) and net margin (13.0%) — sustained above-peer ROE and margins are the model's proxy for economic moat and pricing power; Momentum 3.0/5 (neutral) — reflects recent price trajectory and earnings surprise consistency; Volatility 2.0/5 (below average) — inverse measure derived from beta, where lower historical volatility earns a higher score; Size 3.0/5 (neutral) — market capitalisation rank (mega-cap $1T+ scores 5/5). Composite: 2.2/5. Factor scores above 4.0 signal a tailwind in that dimension; below 2.0 signals a material headwind. Analysis by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory.
What is CG's tail risk and CVaR?
The 95th-percentile Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) for CG on a one-month horizon is -20.4%. CVaR represents the expected average loss in the worst 5% of monthly outcomes — a more conservative tail risk measure than standard VaR, which only marks the loss threshold. Beta of 1.82 indicates above-market systematic sensitivity with amplified drawdown exposure — beta measures historical sensitivity to market moves, not total volatility. For reference, a diversified S&P 500 ETF carries a one-month CVaR of roughly -8% to -12% in normal market conditions; individual equity CVaR is higher due to idiosyncratic risk. At the portfolio level, what matters is the marginal CVaR contribution of each holding — not its standalone figure. The A.L. Capital Advisory Portfolio Health Check quantifies each position's marginal tail-risk contribution across your entire holdings. Analysis by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory. Full methodology: CVaR & Tail-Risk Methodology →
What would trigger a rating upgrade or downgrade for CG?
Upgrade trigger: Upgrade to Strong Buy on evidence of accelerating earnings surprise magnitude combined with improvement in the Value factor score — specifically if the current 33.4x P/E is supported by an upward revision to DCF terminal growth assumptions. Downgrade trigger: Continued earnings misses or deteriorating balance sheet quality reducing the Quality factor score below 2.0/5. These triggers are reassessed each time the underlying fundamentals, price, or earnings data refresh — the current Reduce rating is not held on a fixed review calendar. Analysis by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory. Full methodology: Rating Methodology (this page) →
Does CG consistently beat earnings estimates?
CG has beaten consensus EPS estimates in 2 of the 4 most recently reported quarters (50%) — indicating mixed delivery across the latest 4 reported quarters. The most recent reported quarter beat consensus by 18.0%. Mixed earnings delivery introduces uncertainty into the Momentum factor score and is reflected in the current rating. Across the 4 most recently reported quarters with valid consensus data, a beat rate above 70% signals consistent execution in this model, while a rate below 50% typically corresponds to a Momentum factor score of 3.0/5 or below. Earnings surprise magnitude and direction are incorporated into the Momentum and Quality dimensions of the five-factor scoring model. Analysis by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory. Full methodology: Earnings History (this page) →
How does CG contribute to portfolio risk and diversification?
CG carries a beta of 1.82 (high-volatility / growth-sensitive relative to the broad equity market). A beta above 1.0 means the position amplifies market moves in both directions at a typical portfolio weight. Strongest peer co-movement: KKR (0.77), BX (0.76), ARES (0.71). Holding CG alongside these names in the same portfolio increases concentration risk. True portfolio risk is a function of the full covariance structure — a single stock's beta does not reveal its marginal contribution to portfolio tail loss. The A.L. Capital Advisory Portfolio Health Check quantifies concentration risk (Herfindahl-Hirschman Index), pairwise correlations, and marginal CVaR contribution across all your holdings. If a single position such as this one makes up an outsized share of your net worth — employer stock, RSUs, or concentrated equity compensation — a Strategic Session builds the sequencing plan and the written allocation that follows from it. Analysis by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory. Full methodology: Ledoit-Wolf Covariance Framework →
What quantitative methodology does A.L. Capital Advisory use to analyse CG?
A.L. Capital Advisory analyses The Carlyle Group Inc. (CG) using a four-part quantitative research framework grounded in CFA Institute standards (not all four parts feed the composite rating formula directly — see below). (1) DCF Valuation: a two-stage earnings-based DCF that projects EPS (not free cash flow) under bear and bull assumptions, discounts at the CAPM cost of equity (the applicable rate for an equity-level metric like EPS, not a debt-weighted WACC) to produce an intrinsic value range with margin-of-safety calculation. (2) Five-Factor Scoring: each equity is scored 1–5 on Value, Quality, Momentum, Volatility, and Size. (3) CVaR Tail Risk: 95th-percentile Conditional Value at Risk from historical simulation of daily returns on a one-month horizon. (4) Earnings Surprise Analysis: quarterly beat rate and magnitude, shown for context alongside the factor scores. The current Reduce composite rating for CG is calculated separately from this broader framework: it consists of a Hold quantitative grade, any automatic fundamental penalty, and a disclosed qualitative analyst-conviction overlay — see this page's Rating Methodology section for the exact formula. Five-factor scoring, CVaR and earnings surprise analysis below are supporting research diagnostics shown separately on this page; they are not direct numerical inputs into this specific composite-rating calculation. Analysis by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory. Full methodology: DCF Valuation Framework → · CVaR & Tail-Risk Methodology →
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Retrieved 2026-08-08T09:56:39+00:00 (UTC); see per-quarter analyst counts in Earnings Forecast; individual target ages/dates are not disclosed by the data provider
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[6] DCF valuation, five-factor model & composite rating
Calculated 2026-08-08T09:56:39+00:00 (UTC); see Rating Methodology above for the exact formula
Hand-authored thesis commentary (bull/bear case, catalysts, AI-Era Durability Score narrative) is cross-checked against the company's own investor-relations disclosures at time of writing; figures presented as A.L. Capital Advisory estimates are proprietary forecasts, not company guidance, unless explicitly attributed to the issuer.
Market-session status above is derived from the page's UTC generation time using standard NYSE hours (9:30am–4:00pm ET regular session); it does not account for US market holidays and may be inaccurate on those dates.
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Legal Disclaimer & Important Notices
This analysis is produced using a systematic quantitative framework applied to market data and does not constitute investment advice. Prose commentary is AI-assisted and generated from structured quantitative inputs. All data and metrics are as of 2026-08-08 and are point-in-time estimates subject to revision without notice. CVaR figures are based on historical simulation and do not guarantee future outcomes. DCF ranges and upgrade/downgrade triggers are forward-looking statements based on current assumptions and may not materialise. Past performance does not guarantee future results. This analysis does not account for individual circumstances, tax position, or investment objectives — consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. This content is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute regulated investment advice under MiFID II or FCA guidelines. This content is not intended for US persons or residents of jurisdictions where its distribution would be contrary to local law or regulation. This service is not directed at residents of Finland, Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Iceland, or Poland. The author may hold long or short positions in securities mentioned in this analysis. Nothing on this page represents a solicitation to buy or sell any security. A.L. Capital Advisory is an independent private advisory practice and is not affiliated with The Carlyle Group Inc.
CFA Portfolio Advisory — CG
Discuss this analysis, position sizing, or your full portfolio mandate with Anton Ladnyi, CFA.
