The Carlyle Group Inc. (CG) — Quantitative Forecast & Factor Scores
CG screens as lower-quality and fully priced — DCF model implies a +26% margin of safety at current levels.
CG's quantitative grade is Hold, with elevated downside risk (CVaR -20.4%), and quality metrics (net margin 20%, ROE 14%). The Carlyle Group Inc. (CG) trades at $48.64 with a valuation grade of Hold: a trailing P/E of 22.3x at a 59% premium to sector median, net margins of 20.1%, a DCF-implied intrinsic range of $48–$75 suggesting a +26% margin of safety, beta 2.06 (highly aggressive risk profile).
Key Takeaways
- Valuation: Hold grade — P/E 22.3x — DCF range $48–$75 implies +26% margin of safety
- Risk: CVaR -20.4% (95th percentile, 1-month) indicates moderate tail exposure; beta of 2.06 amplifies broad market moves in both directions
- Strengths: 20% net margin, 14% ROE dominate the factor profile
- Watch: Value score of 2.0/5 signals premium pricing
Quantitative Factor Profile
Key Metrics
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Current Price | $48.64 |
| P/E Ratio (TTM) | 22.3x |
| Forward P/E | 9.0x |
| P/S Ratio | 4.4 |
| Beta | 2.06 |
| Net Margin | 20.1% |
| ROE | 14.1% |
| Debt/Equity | 196.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.89% |
| CVaR (95%, 1M) | -20.4% |
| Market Cap | $17.6B |
Earnings History
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $0.99 | $1.01 | +1.7% ✓ |
| Q3 2025 | $1.02 | $0.96 | -5.8% ✗ |
| Q2 2025 | $0.89 | $0.91 | +2.6% ✓ |
| Q1 2025 | $0.95 | $1.14 | +19.9% ✓ |
CG vs. Sector Peers
| Ticker | P/E (TTM) | Beta | CVaR-95 | Net Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CG | 22.3x | 2.06 | -20.4% | 20.1% |
| BX | 29.6x | 1.79 | -24.2% | 21.2% |
| KKR | 39.1x | 2.01 | -26.0% | 9.2% |
| APO | 20.1x | 1.64 | -21.5% | 11.0% |
| ARES | 62.6x | 1.56 | -30.5% | 9.4% |
CG shows mixed quality signals in the factor model, at a fully-priced valuation with limited margin of safety. Three of the last four quarters beat consensus — execution is solid.
CG trades at 22.3x trailing earnings — 59% above the Financials sector median of 14.0x. The DCF model implies a +26% margin of safety — the risk/reward is currently skewed to the upside.
Hold means what it says here — I am not selling, but I am not buying either. The risk/reward at current prices is roughly balanced, and roughly balanced is not enough reason to deploy fresh capital. What I watch on this name is earnings consistency — specifically whether delivery against consensus is stable or deteriorating. That is usually where the rating gets confirmed or challenged before the price reflects it. A pullback of 10–15% from here would open the margin of safety enough that I would want to add. An earnings miss at the current multiple would do the opposite — that would be the signal to reduce rather than wait.
Is CG a buy, hold, or sell?
CG carries a valuation grade of Hold. The trailing P/E of 22.3 sits 59% above the Financials sector median of 14.0x — a premium that demands sustained earnings delivery. Our discounted cash flow model produces an intrinsic range of $48–$75 — implying a +26% margin of safety at the current price of $48.64. The width of the DCF range reflects genuine uncertainty in the terminal growth rate assumption: the correct framework is a probability-weighted distribution over scenarios, not a single point estimate.
The company has beaten estimates in 75% of recent quarters. The most recent quarter delivered a 1.7% earnings surprise. Analyst estimate revisions are trending upward.
What are CG's key risk factors?
With a beta of 2.06, CG exhibits a highly aggressive risk profile relative to the broad market. The 95th-percentile CVaR of -20.4% on a one-month horizon should inform position sizing directly: at a 10% portfolio weight, this tail event contributes approximately 2.0% of total portfolio loss in the worst 5% of months. Net margins of 20.1% fall below the Financials sector average of 28%, suggesting margin pressure. Leverage is moderate with debt-to-equity at 197%.
At 0.30, the put/call ratio skews bullish, with call buyers dominating recent flow. Implied volatility of 48.4% exceeds realized volatility of 35.6% by 13 points, suggesting options are pricing in elevated risk. Insiders have been net sellers to the tune of $116.4M recently. While routine dispositions are common, the magnitude bears watching. Short interest stands at 6.0% of float, a moderate level.
How does CG fit in a diversified portfolio?
At typical HENRY portfolio weights — 10–20% of the equity allocation — CG carries a beta of 2.06, meaning it amplifies broad market moves proportionally. The appropriate weight is not a function of conviction alone, but of the full covariance structure across all holdings. See the Ledoit-Wolf covariance framework for the methodology behind these calculations.
As a Financials constituent, CG's risk profile should be evaluated alongside sector peers when constructing diversified portfolios.
True portfolio risk is a function of the full covariance structure across all holdings — not individual stock metrics. The Portfolio Health Check quantifies this at the portfolio level: it surfaces hidden concentration, marginal CVaR contributions, and the degree to which your overall allocation deviates from an optimal risk-adjusted mandate. The CG analysis here is a single node in that larger structure.
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Launch Live Analysis →This analysis is produced using a systematic quantitative framework applied to market data and does not constitute investment advice. Prose commentary is AI-assisted and generated from structured quantitative inputs. All data and metrics are as of 2026-04-01 and are point-in-time estimates subject to revision without notice. CVaR figures are based on historical simulation and do not guarantee future outcomes. DCF ranges and upgrade/downgrade triggers are forward-looking statements based on current assumptions and may not materialise. Past performance does not guarantee future results. This analysis does not account for individual circumstances, tax position, or investment objectives — consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. This content is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute regulated investment advice under MiFID II or FCA guidelines. This content is not intended for US persons or residents of jurisdictions where its distribution would be contrary to local law or regulation. This service is not directed at residents of Finland, Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Iceland, or Poland. The author may hold long or short positions in securities mentioned in this analysis. Nothing on this page represents a solicitation to buy or sell any security. A.L. Capital Advisory is an independent private advisory practice and is not affiliated with The Carlyle Group Inc.