By Anton Ladnyi, CFA · ex-Goldman Sachs · ex-J.P. MorganPublished Updated
BX — $1.304T AUM, Google TPU JV, BXDC data center REIT; imposed 5% private credit redemption cap (10% Q2 requests); Asia fund $13.1B; $25B financing at 5.85%; dry powder $213B intact
BX Price Target & Rating
BX's grade is Buy, with elevated downside risk (CVaR -24.2%), and quality metrics (net margin 21%, ROE 30%). Blackstone Inc. (BX) trades at $120.29 with a valuation grade of Buy: a trailing P/E of 30.4x at a 117% premium to sector median, net margins of 21.2%, a DCF-implied intrinsic range of $104–$171 suggesting a +14% margin of safety, beta 1.58 (highly aggressive risk profile).
DCF Valuation Range
Key Takeaways
Valuation: Buy grade — P/E 30.4x — DCF range $104–$171 implies +14% margin of safety
Risk: CVaR -24.2% (95th percentile, 1-month) indicates moderate tail exposure; beta of 1.58 amplifies broad market moves in both directions
Strengths: Quality 4.0/5, Size 4.0/5, 21% net margin, 30% ROE dominate the factor profile
Main riskPremium multiple (30.4x P/E) demands consistent delivery
Tail riskCVaR -24.2% over one month at the 95th percentile
DCF range$104–$171 intrinsic range; margin of safety +14%
Best useCore large-cap Financials holding — not a source of diversified sector exposure
Next watchEarnings surprise deceleration trend — monitor next quarter delivery closely
Quantitative Factor Profile
Value
2.0 / 5
Quality
4.0 / 5
Momentum
3.0 / 5
Volatility
2.0 / 5
Size
4.0 / 5
Key Metrics
BX Key Metrics — Blackstone Inc. 2026
Metric
Value
Current Price
$120.29
P/E Ratio (TTM)
30.4x
Forward P/E
15.7x
PEG Ratio
4.03x
P/S Ratio
10.1
Beta
1.58
Net Margin
21.2%
ROE
29.5%
Debt/Equity
72.0%
Dividend Yield
4.19%
CVaR (95%, 1M)
-24.2%
Market Cap
$144.8B
Analyst View
Anton Ladnyi, CFA · A.L. Capital AdvisoryUpdated 2026-06-11
Rating Rationale
BX — $1.304T AUM, Google TPU JV, BXDC data center REIT; imposed 5% private credit redemption cap (10% Q2 requests); Asia fund $13.1B; $25B financing at 5.85%; dry powder $213B intact
Investment Thesis
↑ Bull Case
Q1 2026: Record $1.304T AUM (+12% YoY), $69B inflows, Distributable Earnings +25% YoY to $1.76B ($1.36/share)
$5B Google Cloud TPU joint venture — direct AI infrastructure equity ownership as alternative to passive credit
BXDC IPO ($87.5M shares at $20, NYSE May 14) — new listed data center vehicle unlocks permanent capital for digital infrastructure
$213.3B dry powder + recovering exit markets = largest deployment opportunity since 2021 vintage
Credit & Insurance AUM +18% YoY to $457.5B; perpetual private wealth platform +14% to $310B (3x in 5 years)
Infrastructure platform grew +41% YoY to $84B; real estate AUM $315.3B; multi-asset +15% to $101.4B
Stock down 25% YTD — among most severe corrections for a business executing at record levels; valuation reversion potential is high
↓ Bear Case
Private credit redemption cap imposed June 2026: 10% of flagship fund shares requested withdrawals in Q2, capped at 5% — signals retail LP liquidity stress and borrower quality concerns
AI disrupting software company revenues triggers credit stress in BX private credit portfolio; non-traded vehicle redemption requests reached 41% in Q1 across the industry
YTD -25%+ reflects broader alt manager multiple compression; exit market recovery slower than modeled, delaying realizations
Sector-wide private credit jitters (Cliffwater, Partners Group): contagion risk to BXPE and BREIT if redemption wave spreads from credit to equity vehicles
What Changes the Rating
↑Catalyst:BXDC dividend initiates above $0.25/quarter; private credit redemption requests fall below 5% threshold in Q3; two large exits crystallize carry above $500M combined
↓Stop / exit:Private credit redemption requests exceed 15% in Q3 forcing additional gates; BXDC IPO delayed; borrower defaults in software/tech portfolio spike above 5% NAV
Anton’s personal note
BX earns a Buy from the model, and I agree on direction. But premium multiples concentrate the risk in execution — there is not much room for a soft quarter at 30x. What I pay attention to above all else is the earnings surprise trajectory. The beat streak is intact, but the magnitude has compressed from +9.8% to +1.7% — and at a 30x multiple, the market is not pricing in a miss. That asymmetry is worth respecting. If the thesis holds across the next two quarters, I would be comfortable carrying this at a meaningful weight. If not — specifically, if margins disappoint or the earnings beat streak breaks — I would reduce before the market fully reprices.
— Anton Ladnyi, CFA
Earnings History
BX Earnings History — EPS Surprise Rate 2026
Quarter
EPS Est.
EPS Actual
Surprise
Q1 2026
$1.34
$1.36
+1.7% ✓
Q4 2025
$1.54
$1.75
+13.9% ✓
Q3 2025
$1.23
$1.52
+23.9% ✓
Q2 2025
$1.10
$1.21
+9.8% ✓
Quarterly EPS — Estimate vs Actual
Earnings Projections
BX Forward EPS Consensus Estimates 2026
Quarter
EPS Est.
YoY EPS
Analysts
Q2 2026
$1.36
+12.4%
16
Q3 2026
$1.48
-2.8%
15
Q4 2026
~$1.74
-0.6%
19
Q1 2027
~$1.88
+38.2%
19
~ Estimated from annual consensus — not a direct analyst survey
BX — P/E 30.4x · Beta 1.58 • Quantitative grade: Hold • CVaR from one-year daily history · historical simulation
DCF Scenario Analysis
Hover each scenario for detail · current price $120.29
▼
Bear Case
$70
-41.8%
Fwd P/E: 10.8x
8% revenue CAGR · 18 exit multiple
◆
Base Case
$115
-4.4%
Fwd P/E: 17.8x
15% revenue CAGR · 23 exit multiple
▲
Bull Case
$170
+41.3%
Fwd P/E: 26.3x
22% revenue CAGR · 28 exit multiple
Pairwise Correlation Matrix
10 of 10 peer pairs correlated above 0.60 — diversification benefit within this cluster is structurally limited.
Extended Analysis — Buy, Hold or Sell? Risk Factors. Portfolio Fit.
Is BX a buy, hold, or sell?
BX carries a valuation grade of Buy. The trailing P/E of 30.4 sits 117% above the Financials sector median of 14.0x — a premium that demands sustained earnings delivery. Our discounted cash flow model produces an intrinsic range of $104–$171 — implying a +14% margin of safety at the current price of $120.29. The width of the DCF range reflects genuine uncertainty in the terminal growth rate assumption: the correct framework is a probability-weighted distribution over scenarios, not a single point estimate. See the DCF valuation framework for full methodology.
With a 12% beat rate on recent quarters, earnings predictability has been mixed. The most recent quarter delivered a 1.7% earnings surprise. Analyst estimate revisions are trending upward.
What are BX's key risk factors?
With a beta of 1.58, BX exhibits a highly aggressive risk profile relative to the broad market. The 95th-percentile CVaR of -24.2% on a one-month horizon should inform position sizing directly: at a 10% portfolio weight, this tail event contributes approximately 2.4% of total portfolio loss in the worst 5% of months. Net margins of 21.2% fall below the Financials sector average of 28%, suggesting margin pressure. Return on equity of 29.5% indicates highly efficient capital allocation. The balance sheet is conservatively leveraged at 72% debt-to-equity.
Insiders have been net sellers to the tune of $99.5M recently. While routine dispositions are common, the magnitude bears watching. Short interest is low at 2.7% of float, suggesting limited bearish conviction.
How does BX fit in a diversified portfolio?
At typical HENRY portfolio weights — 10–20% of the equity allocation — BX carries a beta of 1.58, meaning it amplifies broad market moves proportionally. The appropriate weight is not a function of conviction alone, but of the full covariance structure across all buyings. See the Ledoit-Wolf covariance framework for the methodology behind these calculations.
Among closely correlated names, BX shows the strongest co-movement with KKR (0.85), ARES (0.79), CG (0.75). Investors seeking diversification should note these correlation dynamics when constructing multi-asset portfolios. With the top peer correlation at 0.85, adding BX to a portfolio that already buys these names provides limited marginal diversification benefit — particularly during stress events when correlations converge toward 1.0.
True portfolio risk is a function of the full covariance structure across all buyings — not individual stock metrics. The Portfolio Health Check quantifies this at the portfolio level: it surfaces hidden concentration, marginal CVaR contributions, and the degree to which your overall allocation deviates from an optimal risk-adjusted mandate. The BX analysis here is a single node in that larger structure.
Blackstone Inc. (BX) carries a Buy quantitative rating from A.L. Capital Advisory, derived from Discounted Cash Flow intrinsic value analysis, five-factor model scoring (Value, Quality, Momentum, Volatility, Size), and CVaR tail risk measurement. At $120.29, the DCF midpoint margin of safety is +14% (intrinsic value range: $104 bear – $171 bull). Composite factor score: 3.0/5. Strongest factor: Quality (4.0/5). Weakest factor: Value (2.0/5). Trailing P/E: 30.4x. Analysis by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory. Full methodology: Portfolio Construction Framework →
What is the average analyst target price for BX?
Wall Street consensus target for BX: $143.65 (+19.4% upside from the current price of $120.29). The analyst target range spans $116.00 (most bearish) to $190.00 (most bullish). Consensus recommendation: Buy. Note that analyst price targets typically reflect a 12-month forward horizon and are derived from a blend of DCF, comparable-company, and sum-of-the-parts analysis. A.L. Capital Advisory’s quantitative Buy rating is produced independently — from DCF intrinsic value, five-factor model scores, and CVaR tail risk — and does not mechanically track Street consensus. When the two diverge, the divergence itself is informative: it can reflect differences in time horizon, valuation methodology, or the degree to which the current price already discounts the consensus case. Analysis by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory. Full methodology: Monte Carlo Simulation Framework →
How does BX score on Value, Quality, Momentum, Volatility, and Size?
BX five-factor scores (A.L. Capital Advisory, 1–5 scale): Value 2.0/5 (below average) — measures current price versus DCF intrinsic range and trailing earnings multiples; Quality 4.0/5 (above average) — captures profitability metrics including return on equity, net margin (ROE: 29.5%) and net margin (21.2%); Momentum 3.0/5 (neutral) — reflects recent price trajectory and earnings surprise consistency; Volatility 2.0/5 (below average) — inverse measure derived from beta, where lower historical volatility earns a higher score; Size 4.0/5 (above average) — market capitalisation rank (mega-cap $1T+ scores 5/5). Composite: 3.0/5. Factor scores above 4.0 signal a tailwind in that dimension; below 2.0 signals a material headwind. Analysis by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory. Full methodology: Black-Litterman Model →
What is BX's tail risk and CVaR?
The 95th-percentile Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) for BX on a one-month horizon is -24.2%. CVaR represents the expected average loss in the worst 5% of monthly outcomes — a more conservative tail risk measure than standard VaR, which only marks the loss threshold. Beta of 1.58 indicates above-market volatility with amplified drawdown exposure. For reference, a diversified S&P 500 ETF carries a one-month CVaR of roughly -8% to -12% in normal market conditions; individual equity CVaR is higher due to idiosyncratic risk. At the portfolio level, what matters is the marginal CVaR contribution of each holding — not its standalone figure. The A.L. Capital Advisory Portfolio Health Check quantifies each position's marginal tail-risk contribution across your entire holdings. Analysis by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory. Full methodology: CVaR & Tail-Risk Methodology →
What is BX's intrinsic value and DCF price target?
A.L. Capital Advisory's DCF model produces an intrinsic value range of $104 (bear case) to $171 (bull case) for Blackstone Inc. (BX). At $120.29, the midpoint margin of safety is +14% (positive = discount to intrinsic mid; negative = premium). The bear-to-bull spread reflects genuine sensitivity to the two dominant DCF inputs: the terminal growth rate and WACC. Terminal value typically accounts for 60-80% of total intrinsic value in most equity DCF models, which is why a range is more analytically sound than a point estimate. The central analytical question is not what the DCF outputs as a single number but which growth trajectory the current market price already discounts. All DCF analysis follows CFA Institute standards and is conducted by Analysis by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory. Full methodology: DCF Valuation Framework →
What would trigger a rating upgrade or downgrade for BX?
Upgrade trigger: Upgrade to Strong Buy on evidence of accelerating earnings surprise magnitude combined with improvement in the Value factor score — specifically if the current 30.4x P/E is supported by an upward revision to DCF terminal growth assumptions. Downgrade trigger: An earnings miss at current valuations (30.4x trailing P/E) where there is limited earnings cushion to absorb negative surprises; or a sustained reversal in the Quality and Momentum factor scores for two or more consecutive quarters. Analysis by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory. Full methodology: Investment Policy Statement Framework →
Does BX consistently beat earnings estimates?
BX has beaten consensus EPS estimates in 12% of tracked quarterly periods — indicating inconsistent delivery. The most recent reported quarter beat consensus by 1.7%. Below-average earnings consistency is a primary headwind to the rating and a key watch item in the quantitative model. Earnings surprise magnitude and direction are incorporated into the Momentum and Quality dimensions of the five-factor scoring model. Analysis by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory. Full methodology: DCF Valuation Framework →
How does BX contribute to portfolio risk and diversification?
BX carries a beta of 1.58 (high-volatility / growth-sensitive relative to the broad equity market). A beta above 1.0 means the position amplifies market moves in both directions at a typical portfolio weight. Strongest peer co-movement: KKR (0.85), ARES (0.79), CG (0.75). Holding BX alongside these names in the same portfolio increases concentration risk. True portfolio risk is a function of the full covariance structure — a single stock's beta does not reveal its marginal contribution to portfolio tail loss. The A.L. Capital Advisory Portfolio Health Check quantifies concentration risk (Herfindahl-Hirschman Index), pairwise correlations, and marginal CVaR contribution across all your holdings. Analysis by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory. Full methodology: Ledoit-Wolf Covariance Framework →
What quantitative methodology does A.L. Capital Advisory use to analyse BX?
A.L. Capital Advisory analyses Blackstone Inc. (BX) using a four-component quantitative framework grounded in CFA Institute standards. (1) DCF Valuation: projects free cash flows under bear and bull assumptions, discounts at WACC to produce an intrinsic value range with margin-of-safety calculation. (2) Five-Factor Scoring: each equity is scored 1–5 on Value, Quality, Momentum, Volatility, and Size. (3) CVaR Tail Risk: 95th-percentile Conditional Value at Risk from historical simulation of daily returns on a one-month horizon. (4) Earnings Surprise Analysis: quarterly beat rate and magnitude are incorporated into the Momentum and Quality factor scores. The current Buy rating for BX is the output of applying this complete framework to current data. Analysis by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory. Full methodology: DCF Valuation Framework → · CVaR & Tail-Risk Methodology →
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This analysis is produced using a systematic quantitative framework applied to market data and does not constitute investment advice. Prose commentary is AI-assisted and generated from structured quantitative inputs. All data and metrics are as of 2026-06-11 and are point-in-time estimates subject to revision without notice. CVaR figures are based on historical simulation and do not guarantee future outcomes. DCF ranges and upgrade/downgrade triggers are forward-looking statements based on current assumptions and may not materialise. Past performance does not guarantee future results. This analysis does not account for individual circumstances, tax position, or investment objectives — consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. This content is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute regulated investment advice under MiFID II or FCA guidelines. This content is not intended for US persons or residents of jurisdictions where its distribution would be contrary to local law or regulation. This service is not directed at residents of Finland, Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Iceland, or Poland. The author may hold long or short positions in securities mentioned in this analysis. Nothing on this page represents a solicitation to buy or sell any security. A.L. Capital Advisory is an independent private advisory practice and is not affiliated with Blackstone Inc.
CFA Portfolio Advisory — BX
Discuss this analysis, position sizing, or your full portfolio mandate with Anton Ladnyi, CFA.
