KKR & Co. Inc. (KKR) — Quantitative Forecast & Factor Scores
KKR screens as lower-quality and fully priced — DCF model implies a +34% margin of safety at current levels.
KKR's quantitative grade is Hold, with elevated downside risk (CVaR -26.0%), and quality metrics (net margin 9%, ROE 9%). KKR & Co. Inc. (KKR) trades at $91.58 with a valuation grade of Hold: a trailing P/E of 39.1x at a 180% premium to sector median, net margins of 9.2%, a DCF-implied intrinsic range of $89–$155 suggesting a +34% margin of safety, beta 2.01 (highly aggressive risk profile).
Key Takeaways
- Valuation: Hold grade — P/E 39.1x — DCF range $89–$155 implies +34% margin of safety
- Risk: CVaR -26.0% (95th percentile, 1-month) indicates moderate tail exposure; beta of 2.01 amplifies broad market moves in both directions
- Strengths: Size 4.0/5, 9% net margin, 9% ROE dominate the factor profile
- Watch: Value score of 2.0/5 signals premium pricing
Quantitative Factor Profile
Key Metrics
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Current Price | $91.58 |
| P/E Ratio (TTM) | 39.1x |
| Forward P/E | 11.7x |
| P/S Ratio | 3.3 |
| Beta | 2.01 |
| Net Margin | 9.2% |
| ROE | 8.6% |
| Debt/Equity | 68.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.80% |
| CVaR (95%, 1M) | -26.0% |
| Market Cap | $84.8B |
Earnings History
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $1.14 | $1.12 | -1.6% ✗ |
| Q3 2025 | $1.30 | $1.41 | +8.6% ✓ |
| Q2 2025 | $1.14 | $1.18 | +3.6% ✓ |
| Q1 2025 | $1.13 | $1.15 | +1.7% ✓ |
KKR vs. Sector Peers
| Ticker | P/E (TTM) | Beta | CVaR-95 | Net Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KKR | 39.1x | 2.01 | -26.0% | 9.2% |
| BX | 29.6x | 1.79 | -24.2% | 21.2% |
| APO | 20.1x | 1.64 | -21.5% | 11.0% |
| ARES | 62.6x | 1.56 | -30.5% | 9.4% |
| CG | 22.3x | 2.06 | -20.4% | 20.1% |
KKR shows mixed quality signals in the factor model, at a fully-priced valuation with limited margin of safety. Three of the last four quarters beat consensus — execution is solid.
KKR trades at 39.1x trailing earnings — 180% above the Financials sector median of 14.0x. This combination — premium multiple, decelerating outperformance — is historically where risk/reward becomes asymmetric. Not a reason to sell; a reason to size carefully. The DCF model implies a +34% margin of safety — the risk/reward is currently skewed to the upside.
KKR is not a name I am actively adding to. The business quality is real, but at 39x I am already paying for a lot of the future, and the margin of safety does not justify conviction-sized exposure. What I pay attention to above all else is the earnings surprise trajectory. The beat streak is intact, but the magnitude has compressed from +1.7% to -1.6% — and at a 39x multiple, the market is not pricing in a miss. That asymmetry is worth respecting. A pullback of 10–15% from here would open the margin of safety enough that I would want to add. An earnings miss at the current multiple would do the opposite — that would be the signal to reduce rather than wait.
Is KKR a buy, hold, or sell?
KKR carries a valuation grade of Hold. The trailing P/E of 39.1 sits 180% above the Financials sector median of 14.0x — a premium that demands sustained earnings delivery. Our discounted cash flow model produces an intrinsic range of $89–$155 — implying a +34% margin of safety at the current price of $91.58. The width of the DCF range reflects genuine uncertainty in the terminal growth rate assumption: the correct framework is a probability-weighted distribution over scenarios, not a single point estimate.
The company has beaten estimates in 75% of recent quarters. The most recent quarter missed by a 1.6% earnings surprise. Analyst estimate revisions are trending upward.
What are KKR's key risk factors?
With a beta of 2.01, KKR exhibits a highly aggressive risk profile relative to the broad market. The 95th-percentile CVaR of -26.0% on a one-month horizon should inform position sizing directly: at a 10% portfolio weight, this tail event contributes approximately 2.6% of total portfolio loss in the worst 5% of months. Net margins of 9.2% fall below the Financials sector average of 28%, suggesting margin pressure. The balance sheet is conservatively leveraged at 69% debt-to-equity.
A put/call ratio of 1.11 indicates roughly balanced sentiment in the options market. Implied volatility of 51.6% exceeds realized volatility of 36.2% by 15 points, suggesting options are pricing in elevated risk. Insiders have been net sellers to the tune of $356.6M recently. While routine dispositions are common, the magnitude bears watching. Short interest is low at 1.6% of float, suggesting limited bearish conviction.
How does KKR fit in a diversified portfolio?
At typical HENRY portfolio weights — 10–20% of the equity allocation — KKR carries a beta of 2.01, meaning it amplifies broad market moves proportionally. The appropriate weight is not a function of conviction alone, but of the full covariance structure across all holdings. See the Ledoit-Wolf covariance framework for the methodology behind these calculations.
As a Financials constituent, KKR's risk profile should be evaluated alongside sector peers when constructing diversified portfolios.
True portfolio risk is a function of the full covariance structure across all holdings — not individual stock metrics. The Portfolio Health Check quantifies this at the portfolio level: it surfaces hidden concentration, marginal CVaR contributions, and the degree to which your overall allocation deviates from an optimal risk-adjusted mandate. The KKR analysis here is a single node in that larger structure.
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Launch Live Analysis →This analysis is produced using a systematic quantitative framework applied to market data and does not constitute investment advice. Prose commentary is AI-assisted and generated from structured quantitative inputs. All data and metrics are as of 2026-04-01 and are point-in-time estimates subject to revision without notice. CVaR figures are based on historical simulation and do not guarantee future outcomes. DCF ranges and upgrade/downgrade triggers are forward-looking statements based on current assumptions and may not materialise. Past performance does not guarantee future results. This analysis does not account for individual circumstances, tax position, or investment objectives — consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. This content is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute regulated investment advice under MiFID II or FCA guidelines. This content is not intended for US persons or residents of jurisdictions where its distribution would be contrary to local law or regulation. This service is not directed at residents of Finland, Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Iceland, or Poland. The author may hold long or short positions in securities mentioned in this analysis. Nothing on this page represents a solicitation to buy or sell any security. A.L. Capital Advisory is an independent private advisory practice and is not affiliated with KKR & Co. Inc.