Industrials · Equity Analysis

Hensoldt AG (HAG.DE) Stock Analysis - Price Target, Hold Rating & DCF Valuation (2026)

By Anton Ladnyi, CFA · ex-Goldman Sachs · ex-J.P. Morgan Published 2026-04-17 Updated 2026-07-16

HAG.DE — Hensoldt at €64.90 (down 44% from €115 peak, near bear case): F126 frigate TRS-4D radar contract cancelled June 24 (MEKO alternative sources radars from Sweden; >€200M lost). But: record Q1 (+25% revenue, €9.8B backlog, 3x book-to-bill), FCF guidance upgraded (40%→50% EBITDA), ILA Berlin wins (Battle Lab, SE3 Labs AI partnership, Gen 6 fighter consortium). H1 results July critical for FCF trajectory.

HAG.DE Price Target & Rating

HAG.DE's quantitative grade is Hold, with elevated downside risk (CVaR -31.3%), and quality metrics (net margin 4%, ROE 10%). Hensoldt AG (HAG.DE) trades at $73.66 with a valuation grade of Hold: a trailing P/E of 84.7x at a 285% premium to sector median, net margins of 3.9%, a DCF-implied intrinsic range of $56–$96 suggesting a +3% margin of safety, beta 0.45 (defensive risk profile).

DCF Valuation Range

Key Takeaways

Valuation: Hold grade — P/E 84.7x — DCF range $56–$96 implies +3% margin of safety
Risk: CVaR -31.3% (95th percentile, 1-month) indicates moderate tail exposure; beta of 0.45 amplifies broad market moves in both directions
Strengths: 4% net margin, 10% ROE dominate the factor profile
Catalyst: H1 2026 results (July) — FCF confirmation at 50% EBITDA and F126 backlog impact quantification; Gen 6 fighter programme government commitment and Hensoldt sensor contract; Eurofighter new radar airborne trials late 2026; Battle Lab/SE3 Labs first customer contract; land/space/cyber segment expansion
Bear catalyst: FY2026 revenue guidance cut below €2.5B; book-to-bill falls below 1.2x for two consecutive quarters; luWES bid lost to competitor

HAG.DE — Quantitative Snapshot July 2026

RatingHold

Price$73.66

Why HoldHigh-quality business at a fully-priced valuation — limited margin for error on earnings

Main riskP/E of 84.7x creates asymmetric downside on any earnings disappointment

Tail riskCVaR -31.3% over one month at the 95th percentile

DCF range$56–$96 intrinsic range; margin of safety +3%

Best useCore mid-cap Industrials holding — not a source of diversified sector exposure

Next watchEarnings delivery consistency and margin trajectory

Quantitative Factor Profile

Value: 2.0 / 5
Quality: 1.0 / 5
Momentum: 3.0 / 5
Volatility: 5.0 / 5
Size: 2.5 / 5

Key Metrics

HAG.DE Key Metrics — Hensoldt AG 2026
Metric	Value
Current Price	$73.66
P/E Ratio (TTM)	84.7x
Forward P/E	30.6x
P/S Ratio	3.3
EV/EBITDA	28.7
Beta	0.45
Net Margin	3.9%
ROE	10.3%
Debt/Equity	167.1%
Dividend Yield	0.75%
CVaR (95%, 1M)	-31.3%
Market Cap	$8.5B

Tail Risk Profile

Historical Simulation · Daily Log Returns

HAG.DE — Daily Return Distribution

Hensoldt AG · 253 trading days · CVaR illustrated on real data

Jul 2025 – Jul 2026 Daily log returns

Confidence level 95%

-5.84%

VaR · 95%

Max-loss threshold

-7.13%

CVaR · 95%

Avg loss in tail

Days in tail

of 253 sessions

253

Daily returns

Jul 2025 – Jul 2026

ℹ️

Risk Framework · A.L. Capital Advisory

CVaR & Tail-Risk Methodology

Why variance understates downside risk in non-normal distributions — and how CVaR corrects that blind spot

→

Analyst View

Anton Ladnyi, CFA · A.L. Capital Advisory Updated 2026-07-16

Rating Rationale

Investment Thesis

↑ Bull Case

Q1 2026 order intake €1.48B (+111% YoY) — extraordinary; book-to-bill 3.0x; backlog €9.8B (+41% YoY, record) covering 3.6 years of FY2026 revenue
FCF guidance upgraded June 1, 2026: adjusted FCF raised from ~40% to ~50% of adjusted EBITDA — driven by higher customer advance payments reflecting accelerated German procurement; confirms underlying cash generation improving
Revenue +25% YoY in Q1 to €496M — strongest Q1 in company history; EBITDA +47% YoY; 2030 revenue target raised to €6B at 20%+ EBITDA margin
luWES bid (with Airbus and MBDA): system integrator for German Luftwaffe airborne EW system — low single-digit billions; win would structurally elevate Hensoldt to prime contractor status
ILA Berlin (June 10-14): 'information superiority across all domains' showcase — luWES and sensor suite contract news expected
Radar sensor suite on Eurofighter, radar for RHM.DE's Lynx IFV; direct NATO rearmament programme beneficiary; Deutsche Bank Buy with €101 target, Jefferies €90
FCF guidance upgraded to 50% of adjusted EBITDA (June 1, from 40%); record Q1 order intake €1.48B (+111%), backlog €9.8B at 3.0x book-to-bill — core demand in land/air/space segments entirely independent of F126 Naval setback, validating multi-domain revenue base
ILA Berlin (June 10-14): Battle Lab multi-domain defence software public debut, SE3 Labs AI partnership for AI-native sensor fusion, Team Gen 6 consortium leadership (8 German firms) for 6th-generation fighter programme — positions Hensoldt as the electronic intelligence backbone of German and NATO next-gen platforms

↓ Bear Case

Company still reporting IFRS net losses due to amortisation and tax; adjusted metrics much better but GAAP distorts headline earnings
Despite FCF guidance upgrade, stock fell 5.8% to €84.30 then another 2.3% on June 1 — market scepticism on working capital timing; stock at ~€83, -29% from €117.70 52-week high
Adjusted FCF negative in Q1 (-€95M to -€115M); meaningful positive FCF only expected in H2
Capacity expansion requires sustained capex; execution at €6B (2030 target) requires 2.5x scale-up from today
Concentrated product portfolio (radar, optronics) vs broader-based European peers
F126 programme cancelled June 24: TRS-4D naval radar contract (>€200M for 6 ships) lost to Swedish radar via MEKO alternative procurement — removes German radar industry from frigate programme entirely; stock at €64.90 already near prior bear case of €62
Persistent technical selling (-44% from peak); half-year results (July) must prove FCF trajectory and order momentum resilience vs F126 headwind or stock tests new lows below €60

What Changes the Rating

↑ Catalyst: luWES prime contract won; Q2 book-to-bill above 2x confirmed; 2030 roadmap investor day hosted

↓ Stop / exit: FY2026 revenue guidance cut below €2.5B; book-to-bill falls below 1.2x for two consecutive quarters; luWES bid lost to competitor

Anton’s personal note

HAG.DE is not a name I am actively adding to. The business quality is real, but at 85x I am already paying for a lot of the future, and the margin of safety does not justify conviction-sized exposure. The variable I track most closely is gross margin trajectory. That multiple can only be sustained if operating leverage is real — specifically whether the margin profile at scale supports what the market is already pricing in, or whether that future still needs to be earned. Re-accelerating earnings surprise magnitude would shift my view constructive. Continued compression of beat magnitude at this multiple would move me toward a reduce.

— Anton Ladnyi, CFA

Earnings History

HAG.DE Earnings History — EPS Surprise Rate 2026
Quarter	EPS Est.	EPS Actual	Surprise
Q1 2026	$0.16	$-0.16	-200.0% ✗
Q4 2025	$1.06	$1.03	-2.8% ✗
Q2 2025	$-0.02	$-0.10	-400.0% ✗
Q1 2025	$0.26	$-0.26	-200.0% ✗

Quarterly EPS — Estimate vs Actual

Earnings Projections

HAG.DE Forward EPS Consensus Estimates 2026
Quarter	EPS Est.	YoY EPS	Analysts
Q4 2026	~$0.79	-23.3%	13
Q1 2027	~$0.60	+475.0%	12
~ Estimated from annual consensus — not a direct analyst survey

Earnings Projections — Consensus EPS Estimates

HAG.DE vs. Sector Peers

HAG.DE Peer Valuation Comparison 2026
Ticker	P/E (TTM)	Fwd P/E	Beta	CVaR-95	Net Margin
HAG.DE	84.7x	30.6x	0.45	-31.3%	3.9%
RHM.DE	42.9x	18.1x	0.43	-26.7%	7.2%
THLEF	28.4x	25.8x	0.11	-16.4%	7.6%
BAESY	27.4x	18.6x	-0.07	-15.6%	7.3%
EADSY	30.8x	23.7x	0.88	-16.2%	6.9%

DCF Scenario Analysis

Hover each scenario for detail · current price $73.66

▼

Bear Case

$56

-23.8%

Fwd P/E: 21.6x

6% revenue CAGR · 11x exit multiple

◆

Base Case

$80

+8.2%

Fwd P/E: 30.7x

10% revenue CAGR · 13.5x exit multiple

▲

Bull Case

$96

+29.8%

Fwd P/E: 36.9x

14% revenue CAGR · 16.5x exit multiple

Pairwise Correlation Matrix

1 of 10 peer pairs correlated above 0.60 — diversification benefit within this cluster is structurally limited.

Extended Analysis — Buy, Hold or Sell? Risk Factors. Portfolio Fit.

Is HAG.DE a buy, hold, or sell?

HAG.DE carries a valuation grade of Hold. The trailing P/E of 84.7 sits 285% above the Industrials sector median of 22.0x — a premium that demands sustained earnings delivery. Our discounted cash flow model produces an intrinsic range of $56–$96 — implying a +3% margin of safety at the current price of $73.66. The width of the DCF range reflects genuine uncertainty in the terminal growth rate assumption: the correct framework is a probability-weighted distribution over scenarios, not a single point estimate. See the DCF valuation framework for full methodology.

With a 0% beat rate on recent quarters, earnings predictability has been mixed. Analyst estimate revisions are trending upward.

What are HAG.DE's key risk factors?

With a beta of 0.45, HAG.DE exhibits a low-volatility risk profile relative to the broad market. The 95th-percentile CVaR of -31.3% on a one-month horizon should inform position sizing directly: at a 10% portfolio weight, this tail event contributes approximately 3.1% of total portfolio loss in the worst 5% of months. Net margins of 3.9% fall below the Industrials sector average of 11%, suggesting margin pressure. Leverage is moderate with debt-to-equity at 167%.

How does HAG.DE fit in a diversified portfolio?

At typical HENRY portfolio weights — 10–20% of the equity allocation — HAG.DE carries a beta of 0.45, meaning it amplifies broad market moves proportionally. The appropriate weight is not a function of conviction alone, but of the full covariance structure across all holdings. See the Ledoit-Wolf covariance framework for the methodology behind these calculations.

Among closely correlated names, HAG.DE shows the strongest co-movement with RHM.DE (0.72), THLEF (0.08), BAESY (0.02). Investors seeking diversification should note these correlation dynamics when constructing multi-asset portfolios. With the top peer correlation at 0.72, adding HAG.DE to a portfolio that already holds these names provides limited marginal diversification benefit — particularly during stress events when correlations converge toward 1.0.

True portfolio risk is a function of the full covariance structure across all holdings — not individual stock metrics. The Portfolio Health Check quantifies this at the portfolio level: it surfaces hidden concentration, marginal CVaR contributions, and the degree to which your overall allocation deviates from an optimal risk-adjusted mandate. The HAG.DE analysis here is a single node in that larger structure.

For the full transatlantic conviction hierarchy — including HAG.DE's position sizing, conviction rating, and upside/risk case in the 2026 defence supercycle — see: Defence Spending 2026: The Transatlantic Allocation Case →

Investor FAQ

Is HAG.DE a buy or sell in 2026?

Hensoldt AG (HAG.DE) carries a Hold quantitative rating from A.L. Capital Advisory, derived from Discounted Cash Flow intrinsic value analysis, five-factor model scoring (Value, Quality, Momentum, Volatility, Size), and CVaR tail risk measurement. At $73.66, the DCF midpoint margin of safety is +3% (intrinsic value range: $56 bear – $96 bull). Composite factor score: 2.7/5. Strongest factor: Volatility (5.0/5). Weakest factor: Quality (1.0/5). Trailing P/E: 84.7x. Analysis by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory. Full methodology: Portfolio Construction Framework →

What is the average analyst target price for HAG.DE?

Wall Street consensus target for HAG.DE: $90.57 (+23.0% upside from the current price of $73.66). The analyst target range spans $62.00 (most bearish) to $105.00 (most bullish). Consensus recommendation: Buy. Note that analyst price targets typically reflect a 12-month forward horizon and are derived from a blend of DCF, comparable-company, and sum-of-the-parts analysis. A.L. Capital Advisory’s quantitative Hold rating is produced independently — from DCF intrinsic value, five-factor model scores, and CVaR tail risk — and does not mechanically track Street consensus. When the two diverge, the divergence itself is informative: it can reflect differences in time horizon, valuation methodology, or the degree to which the current price already discounts the consensus case. Analysis by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory. Full methodology: Monte Carlo Simulation Framework →

How does HAG.DE score on Value, Quality, Momentum, Volatility, and Size?

HAG.DE five-factor scores (A.L. Capital Advisory, 1–5 scale): Value 2.0/5 (below average) — measures current price versus DCF intrinsic range and trailing earnings multiples; Quality 1.0/5 (weak) — captures profitability metrics including return on equity, net margin (ROE: 10.3%) and net margin (3.9%); Momentum 3.0/5 (neutral) — reflects recent price trajectory and earnings surprise consistency; Volatility 5.0/5 (strong) — inverse measure derived from beta, where lower historical volatility earns a higher score; Size 2.5/5 (neutral) — market capitalisation rank (mega-cap $1T+ scores 5/5). Composite: 2.7/5. Factor scores above 4.0 signal a tailwind in that dimension; below 2.0 signals a material headwind. Analysis by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory. Full methodology: Black-Litterman Model →

What is HAG.DE's tail risk and CVaR?

The 95th-percentile Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) for HAG.DE on a one-month horizon is -31.3%. CVaR represents the expected average loss in the worst 5% of monthly outcomes — a more conservative tail risk measure than standard VaR, which only marks the loss threshold. Beta of 0.45 indicates below-market volatility. For reference, a diversified S&P 500 ETF carries a one-month CVaR of roughly -8% to -12% in normal market conditions; individual equity CVaR is higher due to idiosyncratic risk. At the portfolio level, what matters is the marginal CVaR contribution of each holding — not its standalone figure. The A.L. Capital Advisory Portfolio Health Check quantifies each position's marginal tail-risk contribution across your entire holdings. Analysis by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory. Full methodology: CVaR & Tail-Risk Methodology →

What is HAG.DE's intrinsic value and DCF price target?

A.L. Capital Advisory's DCF model produces an intrinsic value range of $56 (bear case) to $96 (bull case) for Hensoldt AG (HAG.DE). At $73.66, the midpoint margin of safety is +3% (positive = discount to intrinsic mid; negative = premium). The bear-to-bull spread reflects genuine sensitivity to the two dominant DCF inputs: the terminal growth rate and WACC. Terminal value typically accounts for 60-80% of total intrinsic value in most equity DCF models, which is why a range is more analytically sound than a point estimate. The central analytical question is not what the DCF outputs as a single number but which growth trajectory the current market price already discounts. All DCF analysis follows CFA Institute standards and is conducted by Analysis by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory. Full methodology: DCF Valuation Framework →

What would trigger a rating upgrade or downgrade for HAG.DE?

Upgrade trigger: A price pullback that opens the margin of safety beyond +15% (approximately $48 based on the DCF bear case); or a return to consistent above-consensus EPS delivery for two consecutive quarters. Downgrade trigger: An earnings miss at current valuations (84.7x trailing P/E) where there is limited earnings cushion to absorb negative surprises; or a sustained reversal in the Quality and Momentum factor scores for two or more consecutive quarters. Analysis by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory. Full methodology: Investment Policy Statement Framework →

How does HAG.DE contribute to portfolio risk and diversification?

HAG.DE carries a beta of 0.45 (low-volatility / defensive relative to the broad equity market). A beta above 1.0 means the position amplifies market moves in both directions at a typical portfolio weight. Strongest peer co-movement: RHM.DE (0.72), THLEF (0.08), BAESY (0.02). Holding HAG.DE alongside these names in the same portfolio increases concentration risk. True portfolio risk is a function of the full covariance structure — a single stock's beta does not reveal its marginal contribution to portfolio tail loss. The A.L. Capital Advisory Portfolio Health Check quantifies concentration risk (Herfindahl-Hirschman Index), pairwise correlations, and marginal CVaR contribution across all your holdings. Analysis by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory. Full methodology: Ledoit-Wolf Covariance Framework →

What quantitative methodology does A.L. Capital Advisory use to analyse HAG.DE?

A.L. Capital Advisory analyses Hensoldt AG (HAG.DE) using a four-component quantitative framework grounded in CFA Institute standards. (1) DCF Valuation: projects free cash flows under bear and bull assumptions, discounts at WACC to produce an intrinsic value range with margin-of-safety calculation. (2) Five-Factor Scoring: each equity is scored 1–5 on Value, Quality, Momentum, Volatility, and Size. (3) CVaR Tail Risk: 95th-percentile Conditional Value at Risk from historical simulation of daily returns on a one-month horizon. (4) Earnings Surprise Analysis: quarterly beat rate and magnitude are incorporated into the Momentum and Quality factor scores. The current Hold rating for HAG.DE is the output of applying this complete framework to current data. Analysis by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory. Full methodology: DCF Valuation Framework → · CVaR & Tail-Risk Methodology →

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Valuation Framework

DCF Valuation Framework

Why terminal value drives 60–80% of equity intrinsic value — the mechanics behind P/E, EV/EBITDA, and how a 1% WACC shift moves high-multiple tech stocks ~25%.

Portfolio Framework

Portfolio Construction Under Parameter Uncertainty

A Bayesian Framework for Strategic Asset Allocation — how tail risk, estimation error, and parameter uncertainty shape optimal portfolio design.

Allocation Framework

Black-Litterman Model

The Bayesian allocation model from Goldman Sachs — how equilibrium market returns are combined with explicit investor views to produce stable, diversified portfolios.

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Anton Ladnyi, CFA

Founder & Portfolio Architect — A.L. Capital Advisory

Ex-Goldman Sachs Equity Research · Ex-J.P. Morgan Wealth Management · CFA Charterholder

CFA Charter ↗ CFA L1 ↗ CFA L2 ↗ CFA L3 ↗ LinkedIn ↗ X ↗

Legal Disclaimer & Important Notices

This analysis is produced using a systematic quantitative framework applied to market data and does not constitute investment advice. Prose commentary is AI-assisted and generated from structured quantitative inputs. All data and metrics are as of 2026-07-16 and are point-in-time estimates subject to revision without notice. CVaR figures are based on historical simulation and do not guarantee future outcomes. DCF ranges and upgrade/downgrade triggers are forward-looking statements based on current assumptions and may not materialise. Past performance does not guarantee future results. This analysis does not account for individual circumstances, tax position, or investment objectives — consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. This content is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute regulated investment advice under MiFID II or FCA guidelines. This content is not intended for US persons or residents of jurisdictions where its distribution would be contrary to local law or regulation. This service is not directed at residents of Finland, Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Iceland, or Poland. The author may hold long or short positions in securities mentioned in this analysis. Nothing on this page represents a solicitation to buy or sell any security. A.L. Capital Advisory is an independent private advisory practice and is not affiliated with Hensoldt AG.