Uber Technologies Inc. (UBER) — Quantitative Forecast & Factor Scores
UBER screens as high-quality and attractively valued — DCF model implies a +52% margin of safety at current levels.
UBER's quantitative grade is Strong Buy, with moderate downside risk (CVaR -16.3%), and quality metrics (net margin 19%, ROE 40%). Uber Technologies Inc. (UBER) trades at $69.18 with a valuation grade of Strong Buy: a trailing P/E of 14.6x at a 44% discount to sector median, net margins of 19.3%, a DCF-implied intrinsic range of $67–$144 suggesting a +52% margin of safety, beta 1.22 (moderate risk profile).
Key Takeaways
- Valuation: Strong Buy grade — P/E 14.6x — DCF range $67–$144 implies +52% margin of safety
- Risk: CVaR -16.3% (95th percentile, 1-month) indicates moderate tail exposure; beta of 1.22 amplifies broad market moves in both directions
- Strengths: Quality 5.0/5, Size 4.0/5, 19% net margin, 40% ROE dominate the factor profile
- Watch: Monitor earnings delivery — premium multiples leave limited margin for misses
Quantitative Factor Profile
Key Metrics
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Current Price | $69.18 |
| P/E Ratio (TTM) | 14.6x |
| Forward P/E | 16.1x |
| P/S Ratio | 2.7 |
| EV/EBITDA | 23.5 |
| Beta | 1.22 |
| Net Margin | 19.3% |
| ROE | 39.9% |
| Debt/Equity | 43.8% |
| CVaR (95%, 1M) | -16.3% |
| Market Cap | $142.4B |
Earnings History
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $0.78 | $0.14 | -81.9% ✗ |
| Q3 2025 | $0.69 | $3.11 | +353.2% ✓ |
| Q2 2025 | $0.62 | $0.63 | +1.1% ✓ |
| Q1 2025 | $0.50 | $0.83 | +65.0% ✓ |
UBER vs. Sector Peers
| Ticker | P/E (TTM) | Beta | CVaR-95 | Net Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBER | 14.6x | 1.22 | -16.3% | 19.3% |
| AMZN | 27.8x | 1.42 | -16.6% | 10.8% |
| GOOGL | 25.4x | 1.11 | -10.4% | 32.8% |
| BKNG | 24.5x | 1.23 | -23.6% | 20.1% |
| ABNB | 30.5x | 1.16 | -13.8% | 20.5% |
UBER screens as an exceptional-quality business, at an attractive entry point relative to intrinsic value. Three of the last four quarters beat consensus — execution is solid.
UBER trades at 14.6x trailing earnings — 44% below the Consumer Cyclical sector median of 26.0x. The DCF model implies a +52% margin of safety — the risk/reward is currently skewed to the upside.
The model points to a strong buy and the DCF math backs it — there is real margin of safety here, which is rare at this stage of the cycle. The DCF gap is striking — the model sees 52% upside, and market consensus is not pricing it. I watch for the catalyst that closes that gap: an earnings beat that resets forward estimates, a sector re-rating, or a margin inflection. Without a visible catalyst, valuation gaps can stay wide longer than logic suggests they should. The setup that would make me more positive is a quarter that confirms the operating leverage story. The setup that would make me cautious is any signal that consensus estimates are getting ahead of fundamentals.
Is UBER a buy, hold, or sell?
UBER carries a valuation grade of Strong Buy. At a trailing P/E of 14.6, the stock trades at a 44% discount to the Consumer Cyclical sector median of 26.0x. Our discounted cash flow model produces an intrinsic range of $67–$144 — implying a +52% margin of safety at the current price of $69.18. The width of the DCF range reflects genuine uncertainty in the terminal growth rate assumption: the correct framework is a probability-weighted distribution over scenarios, not a single point estimate.
The company has beaten estimates in 75% of recent quarters. The most recent quarter missed by a 81.9% earnings surprise. Analyst estimate revisions are trending flat.
What are UBER's key risk factors?
With a beta of 1.22, UBER exhibits an above-market risk profile relative to the broad market. The 95th-percentile CVaR of -16.3% on a one-month horizon should inform position sizing directly: at a 10% portfolio weight, this tail event contributes approximately 1.6% of total portfolio loss in the worst 5% of months. Net margins of 19.3% are significantly above the Consumer Cyclical sector average of 10%, reflecting durable pricing power. Return on equity of 39.9% indicates highly efficient capital allocation. The balance sheet is conservatively leveraged at 44% debt-to-equity.
A put/call ratio of 1.19 indicates roughly balanced sentiment in the options market. Implied volatility of 42.9% exceeds realized volatility of 34.0% by 9 points, suggesting options are pricing in elevated risk. Insiders have been net sellers to the tune of $67.8M recently. While routine dispositions are common, the magnitude bears watching. Short interest is low at 2.7% of float, suggesting limited bearish conviction.
How does UBER fit in a diversified portfolio?
At typical HENRY portfolio weights — 10–20% of the equity allocation — UBER carries a beta of 1.22, meaning it amplifies broad market moves proportionally. The appropriate weight is not a function of conviction alone, but of the full covariance structure across all holdings. See the Ledoit-Wolf covariance framework for the methodology behind these calculations.
As a Consumer Cyclical constituent, UBER's risk profile should be evaluated alongside sector peers when constructing diversified portfolios.
True portfolio risk is a function of the full covariance structure across all holdings — not individual stock metrics. The Portfolio Health Check quantifies this at the portfolio level: it surfaces hidden concentration, marginal CVaR contributions, and the degree to which your overall allocation deviates from an optimal risk-adjusted mandate. The UBER analysis here is a single node in that larger structure.
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Launch Live Analysis →This analysis is produced using a systematic quantitative framework applied to market data and does not constitute investment advice. Prose commentary is AI-assisted and generated from structured quantitative inputs. All data and metrics are as of 2026-03-28 and are point-in-time estimates subject to revision without notice. CVaR figures are based on historical simulation and do not guarantee future outcomes. DCF ranges and upgrade/downgrade triggers are forward-looking statements based on current assumptions and may not materialise. Past performance does not guarantee future results. This analysis does not account for individual circumstances, tax position, or investment objectives — consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. This content is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute regulated investment advice under MiFID II or FCA guidelines. This content is not intended for US persons or residents of jurisdictions where its distribution would be contrary to local law or regulation. This service is not directed at residents of Finland, Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Iceland, or Poland. The author may hold long or short positions in securities mentioned in this analysis. Nothing on this page represents a solicitation to buy or sell any security. A.L. Capital Advisory is an independent private advisory practice and is not affiliated with Uber Technologies Inc.