Walmart Inc. (WMT) — Quantitative Forecast & Factor Scores

WMT currently carries a valuation grade of Hold. At a trailing P/E of 44.7, the stock trades at a 86% premium to the Consumer Defensive sector median of 24.0x. Our discounted cash flow model suggests an intrinsic range of $60–$133, implying a -21% margin of safety at the current price of $121.98.

With a beta of 0.66, WMT exhibits a defensive risk profile relative to the broad market. Net margins of 3.1% fall below the Consumer Defensive average of 12%, suggesting potential margin pressure. Return on equity of 21.8% suggests solid capital efficiency. The balance sheet is conservatively leveraged at 64% debt-to-equity.

With a 58% beat rate on recent quarters, earnings predictability has been mixed. The most recent quarter delivered a +8.5% earnings surprise. Analyst estimate revisions are trending accelerating.

Insiders have been net sellers to the tune of $4,070,446,744 recently. While routine dispositions are common, the magnitude bears watching. Short interest is low at 1.1% of float, suggesting limited bearish conviction.

The options market shows a put/call ratio of 1.39, reflecting a notably bearish skew in derivative positioning. Implied volatility of 30.7% exceeds realized volatility of 24.4% by 6 points, suggesting options are pricing in elevated risk.

As a Consumer Defensive constituent, WMT's risk profile should be evaluated alongside sector peers when constructing diversified portfolios.