McDonald's Corporation (MCD) — Quantitative Forecast & Factor Scores

Quick Summary

McDonald's Corporation (MCD) trades at $315.73 and beta of 0.50 — valuation grade: Hold. Factor scores, risk metrics, and forward analytics are computed by the A.L. Capital Advisory quantitative engine.

VALUATION GRADE
Hold
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Key Metrics
Metric Value
Current Price$315.73
P/E Ratio26.44
Forward P/E22.05
Beta0.50
Net Margin31.9%
Dividend Yield2.28%

Risk Profile & Factor Analysis

MCD currently carries a valuation grade of Hold. The trailing P/E of 26.4 is roughly in line with the Consumer Cyclical sector median of 26.0x. Our discounted cash flow model suggests an intrinsic range of $272–$439, implying a +13% margin of safety at the current price of $315.73.

With a beta of 0.50, MCD exhibits a low-volatility risk profile relative to the broad market. Net margins of 31.9% are significantly above the Consumer Cyclical average of 10%, reflecting strong pricing power.

With a 33% beat rate on recent quarters, earnings predictability has been mixed. The most recent quarter saw a -4.8% earnings miss. Analyst estimate revisions are trending accelerating.

Insiders have been net sellers to the tune of $48,755,434 recently. While routine dispositions are common, the magnitude bears watching. Short interest is low at 1.3% of float, suggesting limited bearish conviction.

The options market shows a put/call ratio of 1.25, reflecting a notably bearish skew in derivative positioning. Implied volatility of 27.2% exceeds realized volatility of 18.0% by 9 points, suggesting options are pricing in elevated risk.

As a Consumer Cyclical constituent, MCD's risk profile should be evaluated alongside sector peers when constructing diversified portfolios.

Anton Ladnyi
Founder & Portfolio Architect
Former Goldman Sachs & J.P. Morgan. CFA charterholder. Specializes in quantitative portfolio construction, factor investing, and institutional-grade risk management for private clients.

This analysis is generated algorithmically from market data and does not constitute investment advice. All metrics are point-in-time estimates subject to revision. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.