PepsiCo Inc. (PEP) — Quantitative Forecast & Factor Scores

PEP currently carries a valuation grade of Hold. The trailing P/E of 25.6 is roughly in line with the Consumer Defensive sector median of 24.0x. Our discounted cash flow model suggests an intrinsic range of $140–$210, implying a +14% margin of safety at the current price of $153.54.

With a beta of 0.38, PEP exhibits a low-volatility risk profile relative to the broad market. Net margins of 8.8% fall below the Consumer Defensive average of 12%, suggesting potential margin pressure. Return on equity of 42.8% indicates highly efficient capital allocation. Debt-to-equity of 258% warrants monitoring for leverage risk.

The company has beaten estimates in 67% of recent quarters, a moderate hit rate. The most recent quarter delivered a +3.9% earnings surprise. Analyst estimate revisions are trending accelerating.

Insiders have been net sellers to the tune of $15,834,781 recently. While routine dispositions are common, the magnitude bears watching. Short interest is low at 1.5% of float, suggesting limited bearish conviction.

A put/call ratio of 0.86 indicates roughly balanced sentiment in the options market. Implied volatility of 35.9% exceeds realized volatility of 18.2% by 18 points, suggesting options are pricing in elevated risk.

As a Consumer Defensive constituent, PEP's risk profile should be evaluated alongside sector peers when constructing diversified portfolios.