Netflix Inc. (NFLX) — Quantitative Forecast & Factor Scores

NFLX currently carries a valuation grade of Hold. At a trailing P/E of 37.4, the stock trades at a 17% premium to the Technology sector median of 32.0x. Our discounted cash flow model suggests an intrinsic range of $69–$130, implying a +5% margin of safety at the current price of $94.70.

With a beta of 1.71, NFLX exhibits a highly aggressive risk profile relative to the broad market. Net margins of 24.3% are broadly consistent with the Technology average of 22%. Return on equity of 42.8% indicates highly efficient capital allocation. The balance sheet is conservatively leveraged at 64% debt-to-equity.

With a 25% beat rate on recent quarters, earnings predictability has been mixed. The most recent quarter saw a -4.0% earnings miss. Analyst estimate revisions are trending accelerating.

Insiders have been net sellers to the tune of $673,147,587 recently. While routine dispositions are common, the magnitude bears watching. Short interest is low at 2.1% of float, suggesting limited bearish conviction.

At 0.69, the put/call ratio skews bullish, with call buyers dominating recent flow. Implied volatility of 31.9% is below realized volatility of 53.0%, potentially making options relatively cheap.

As a Technology constituent, NFLX's risk profile should be evaluated alongside sector peers when constructing diversified portfolios.