Moderna Inc. (MRNA) Stock Analysis - DCF Valuation & AI Disruption Risk

MRNA — stock has nearly tripled off June lows to ~$78 on flu-vaccine and oncology hype, but most analyst targets ($30-69) sit below spot, leaving valuation stretched into binary Aug 5 PDUFA risk.

Quantitative model rating — not individualized investment advice.

MRNA Price Target & Rating

MRNA's quantitative grade is N/A, with elevated downside risk (CVaR -26.5%), and quality metrics (net margin -1%, ROE -39%). Moderna Inc. (MRNA) trades at $59.17 with a N/A composite rating: net margins of -1.4%, beta 0.90 (moderate risk profile).

  • Valuation: N/A grade
  • Risk: CVaR -26.5% (95th percentile, 1-month) indicates moderate tail exposure; beta of 0.90 amplifies broad market moves in both directions
  • Strengths: -1% net margin, -39% ROE dominate the factor profile
  • Catalyst: FDA PDUFA decision on mRNA-1010 seasonal flu vaccine due August 5, 2026
  • Bear catalyst: FDA issues a complete response letter or restricts the mRNA-1010 label below expectations, cash burn accelerates faster than the $4.5-5.0 billion year-end 2026 guidance implies, or intismeran autogene Phase 3 data disappoints versus the Phase 2 49% recurrence-risk benefit
MRNA — Quantitative Snapshot August 2026
RatingN/A
Price$59.17
Why N/AQuantitative factor profile is mixed — see full analysis below
Main riskElevated tail risk — CVaR -26.5% on a one-month horizon
Tail riskCVaR -26.5% over one month at the 95th percentile
Best useCore large-cap Healthcare holding — not a source of diversified sector exposure
Next watchEarnings surprise deceleration trend — monitor next quarter delivery closely

MRNA's composite five-factor score is 3.0/5, led by Volatility (4.0/5) and weakest on Quality (2.0/5).

MRNA Quantitative Factor Radar Chart Pentagon radar chart showing MRNA factor scores: Value 3.0, Quality 2.0, Momentum 3.0, Volatility 4.0, Size 3.0 — each scored on a 1 to 5 scale. VALUE 3.0 QUALITY 2.0 MOMENTUM 3.0 VOLATILITY 4.0 SIZE 3.0
MRNA five-factor radar — Value 3.0, Quality 2.0, Momentum 3.0, Volatility 4.0, Size 3.0 (out of 5).
Value
3.0 / 5
Quality
2.0 / 5
Momentum
3.0 / 5
Volatility
4.0 / 5
Size
3.0 / 5
MRNA Five-Factor Quantitative Scores
FactorScore
Value3.0 / 5
Quality2.0 / 5
Momentum3.0 / 5
Volatility4.0 / 5
Size3.0 / 5
AI Disruption Risk: Elevated

Moderna's durability challenge is post-pandemic demand collapse, not AI: revenue fell from $19.3B in 2022 to $1.9B in full-year 2025 with a GAAP net loss of $2.8B, and the company is guiding to only up to 10% revenue growth in 2026, a target still contingent on uncertain U.S. COVID vaccination rates. Moderna does have real, disclosed AI initiatives -- a multi-year IBM collaboration exploring generative AI and quantum computing for mRNA sequence design, and a separate OpenAI collaboration dating to 2023 -- but neither has yet translated into a disclosed revenue or efficiency figure comparable to what Lilly has reported in manufacturing. The nearer-term story is pipeline execution: Moderna's norovirus vaccine missed its Phase III interim efficacy bar and needs an expanded cohort, while approvals for mCOMBRIAX and mNEXSPIKE in Europe and a possible U.S. approval of mFLUSIVA in 2H26 are the products that need to work for growth guidance to hold. Watch cash burn (H1 2026 net loss widened to $2.13B) against the pace of new product approvals.

MRNA Key Metrics — Moderna Inc. 2026
MetricValue
Current Price$59.17
Forward P/E-12.2x
P/S Ratio10.6
EV/EBITDA-9.0
Beta0.90
Net Margin-1.4%
ROE-39.0%
Debt/Equity19.0%
CVaR (95%, 1M)-26.5%
Market Cap$23.6B
1-Month CVaR Methodology
  • Lookback: most recent 1 year of daily prices.
  • Return input: daily log returns on dividend/split-adjusted close prices.
  • Horizon construction: rolling, overlapping 21-trading-day (~1 calendar month) sums of daily log returns.
  • Confidence level: 95% (worst 5% of the resulting rolling-month observations).
  • Quantile convention: floor-based cutoff — the worst floor(N × 0.05) rolling-month observations (minimum 1), not a rounded or interpolated percentile.
  • CVaR: arithmetic mean of that worst-5% tail, expressed as a percentage.
  • Corporate actions: reflected via adjusted-close pricing (dividends and splits are accounted for).
1M CVaR-95 by lookback window
Method1M CVaR-95
Trailing 1-year historical-26.5%
Trailing 3-year historical-37.1%
Trailing 5-year historical-38.6%
Historical Simulation · Daily Log Returns
MRNA — Daily Return Distribution
Moderna Inc.  ·  250 trading days  ·  CVaR illustrated on real data
Aug 2025 – Aug 2026 Daily log returns
95%
-6.78%
1-Day VaR · 95%
95th-percentile loss threshold
-7.98%
1-Day CVaR · 95%
Avg loss in tail
13
Days in tail
of 250 sessions
250
Daily returns
Aug 2025 – Aug 2026
ℹ️
Risk Framework · A.L. Capital Advisory
CVaR & Tail-Risk Methodology
Why variance understates downside risk in non-normal distributions — and how CVaR corrects that blind spot
Analyst View
Anton Ladnyi, CFA · A.L. Capital Advisory Updated 2026-08-08

MRNA — stock has nearly tripled off June lows to ~$78 on flu-vaccine and oncology hype, but most analyst targets ($30-69) sit below spot, leaving valuation stretched into binary Aug 5 PDUFA risk.

↑ Bull Case
  • 9-0 unanimous FDA advisory committee vote (June 2026) backing mRNA-1010 flu vaccine for adults 50-64 and 65+, ahead of the August 5, 2026 PDUFA decision, materially de-risking approval odds
  • 49% reduction in melanoma recurrence risk shown in 5-year data for intismeran autogene (mRNA-4157) + Keytruda, disclosed with Merck at ASCO 2026, with 9 Phase 2/3 trials underway across tumor types
  • $7.5 billion in cash and investments as of March 31, 2026, funding the company through its 2028 cash-breakeven target without needing to raise equity
  • 10% revenue growth guidance reiterated for 2026 alongside GAAP opex reductions (2026 cash costs guided to ~$4.2 billion), plus EU approvals of mNEXSPIKE and mCOMBRIAX combo flu/COVID vaccine
  • 150% year-to-date stock rally (12th-best S&P 500 performer) signals renewed institutional and retail interest in the non-COVID pipeline, including a new in vivo CAR-T program (mRNA-6007) targeted for 2027
↓ Bear Case
  • $389 million Q1 2026 revenue and a GAAP net loss of $1.3 billion (EPS -$3.40, missing estimates by ~12.6%), driven partly by an $878 million Arbutus litigation settlement charge
  • $30-69 range of most current analyst price targets sits well below the ~$78 spot price, implying consensus sees the recent rally as overextended relative to fundamentals
  • 2029 guided timeline before Moderna expects positive EPS, with cash breakeven not targeted until 2028, meaning years of continued cash burn (~$630 million net operating outflow in Q1 2026 alone)
  • 2027 delay flagged by Jefferies for meaningful flu vaccine revenue contribution even if mRNA-1010 is approved in August 2026, given late-year launch timing and slow category uptake versus entrenched flu vaccine incumbents
Catalyst: mRNA-1010 receives full FDA approval on/before the August 5, 2026 PDUFA date with a label broad enough for meaningful 2026-2027 season uptake, intismeran autogene Phase 3 melanoma data reads out positively, and sell-side price targets converge upward toward or above the current trading price
Model downgrade conditions: FDA issues a complete response letter or restricts the mRNA-1010 label below expectations, cash burn accelerates faster than the $4.5-5.0 billion year-end 2026 guidance implies, or intismeran autogene Phase 3 data disappoints versus the Phase 2 49% recurrence-risk benefit
The rating on MRNA is driven by a factor profile that is genuinely mixed — there is no clean narrative here, which is itself a signal worth taking seriously. What I watch on this name is earnings consistency — specifically whether delivery against consensus is stable or deteriorating. That is usually where the rating gets confirmed or challenged before the price reflects it. The scenario that changes my read is a genuine valuation reset — not a small pullback, but a re-rating that reflects the actual risk profile. Until that happens, the risk/reward is not there.
— Anton Ladnyi, CFA
MRNA Earnings History — EPS Surprise Rate 2026
QuarterEPS Est. (consensus)EPS Actual (adjusted, consensus basis)Surprise
Q2 2026$-2.06$-1.97+4.3%
Q1 2026$-3.88$-3.40+12.4%
Q4 2025$-2.60$-2.11+18.9%
Q3 2025$-2.18$-0.51+76.6%

MRNA has beaten consensus EPS estimates in 4 of the last 4 reported quarters (100%).

$-2.80$-2.10$-1.40 +76.6%+18.9%+12.4%+4.3% Q3'25Q4'25Q1'26Q2'26 BEAT RATE4/4 ESTIMATEBEATMISS EPS ACTUAL vs ESTIMATE · MRNA
MRNA quarterly EPS — estimate vs. actual, 4 most recent reported quarters, 100% beat rate.
MRNA Forward EPS Consensus Estimates 2026
QuarterEPS Est.YoY EPSAnalysts
Q3 2026$-1.35-164.7%14
Q4 2026$-1.87+11.4%14
Q1 2027~$-1.23+63.8%18
Q2 2027~$-1.23+37.6%18
~ Estimated from annual consensus — not a direct analyst survey

Wall Street's next-quarter consensus EPS estimate for MRNA is $-1.35.

$-2.80$-2.40$-2.00$-1.60$-1.20 -165%+11%+64%+38% Q3 2026Q4 2026Q1 2027Q2 2027 ESTIMATE TRENDMODEL-IMPLIED ACCELERATING CONSENSUS EPSANALYST RANGEBased on 14–18 analyst estimates per quarter — dashed bars are model-allocated from annual consensus, not direct quarterly surveys EPS FORWARD ESTIMATES · MRNA
MRNA consensus EPS estimates, next quarter $-1.35, 4 quarters shown.
MRNA Peer Valuation Comparison 2026
TickerP/E (TTM)Fwd P/EBeta1M CVaR-95Net Margin
MRNA-12.2x0.90-26.5%-1.4%
PFE34.3x9.3x0.28-8.7%6.8%
LLY40.0x25.6x0.51-12.9%33.5%
JNJ29.9x21.1x0.23-7.0%21.5%
ABBV68.9x15.1x0.28-10.3%9.8%
Revenue growth × exit multiple (editorial, not mechanically reproducible from disclosed inputs) · hover each scenario for detail · current price $59.17
BEAR$35BASE$68BULL$120 $59 ANALYST SCENARIO RANGE · MRNA
Bear Case
$35
-40.8%
Implied NTM P/E: — (target ÷ next-4Q consensus EPS — distinct from the exit multiple below, which is applied to a later-year EPS estimate)
-5% revenue CAGR · 3.5x exit multiple
Base Case
$68
+14.9%
Implied NTM P/E: — (target ÷ next-4Q consensus EPS — distinct from the exit multiple below, which is applied to a later-year EPS estimate)
8% revenue CAGR · 5.5x exit multiple
Bull Case
$120
+102.8%
Implied NTM P/E: — (target ÷ next-4Q consensus EPS — distinct from the exit multiple below, which is applied to a later-year EPS estimate)
22% revenue CAGR · 8x exit multiple

0 of 10 peer pairs correlated above 0.60, indicating meaningful historical diversification across the selected names, although all remain exposed to common equity, sector and macro factors.

Pairwise Correlation Matrix — MRNA vs PFE vs LLY vs ABBV vs JNJ 5×5 pairwise correlation matrix showing co-movement between MRNA, PFE, LLY, ABBV, JNJ over a trailing 12-month window. MRNA PFE LLY ABBV JNJ MRNA PFE LLY ABBV JNJ 1.00 0.25 0.20 0.18 0.07 0.25 1.00 0.41 0.39 0.29 0.20 0.41 1.00 0.37 0.39 0.18 0.39 0.37 1.00 0.47 0.07 0.29 0.39 0.47 1.00
MRNA pairwise correlation heatmap across 5 peers — 0 of 10 pairs above 0.60.
0 of 10 peer pairs correlated above 0.60, indicating meaningful historical diversification across the selected names, although all remain exposed to common equity, sector and macro factors.
Extended Analysis — Buy, Hold or Sell? Risk Factors. Portfolio Fit.

Is MRNA a buy, hold, or sell?

MRNA carries a quantitative grade of N/A.

MRNA has beaten consensus estimates in 100% of the last 4 reported quarters, signalling strong execution consistency. The most recent quarter delivered a 4.3% earnings surprise. Analyst estimate revisions are trending downward.

What are MRNA's key risk factors?

With a beta of 0.90, MRNA exhibits a defensive risk profile relative to the broad market. The 95th-percentile CVaR of -26.5% on a one-month horizon should inform position sizing directly: at a 10% portfolio weight, this standalone tail outcome corresponds to approximately 2.7% of portfolio value before accounting for correlations with other holdings — not a marginal portfolio CVaR contribution, which depends on the full covariance structure. Net margins of -1.4% fall below the Healthcare sector average of 18%, suggesting margin pressure. The balance sheet is conservatively leveraged at 19% debt-to-equity.

At 0.12, the put/call ratio skews bullish, with call buyers dominating recent flow. Implied and realized volatility are roughly aligned at 73.4% and 73.3% respectively. Insider transactions show net buying of $960K over the disclosed transactions from 2024-08-09 to 2026-07-15, a signal often associated with management confidence. Short interest of 16.2% of float is elevated, reflecting meaningful bearish positioning.

How does MRNA fit in a diversified portfolio?

At typical HENRY portfolio weights — 10–20% of the equity allocation — MRNA carries a beta of 0.90, meaning it amplifies broad market moves proportionally. The appropriate weight is not a function of conviction alone, but of the full covariance structure across all holdings. See the Ledoit-Wolf covariance framework for the methodology behind these calculations.

Among closely correlated names, MRNA shows the strongest co-movement with PFE (0.25), LLY (0.20), ABBV (0.18). Investors seeking diversification should note these correlation dynamics when constructing multi-asset portfolios.

True portfolio risk is a function of the full covariance structure across all holdings — not individual stock metrics. The Portfolio Health Check quantifies this at the portfolio level: it surfaces hidden concentration, marginal CVaR contributions, and the degree to which your overall allocation deviates from an optimal risk-adjusted mandate. The MRNA analysis here is a single node in that larger structure.

What is MRNA's AI-Era Durability & Disruption Risk Score?

Moderna's durability challenge is post-pandemic demand collapse, not AI: revenue fell from $19.3B in 2022 to $1.9B in full-year 2025 with a GAAP net loss of $2.8B, and the company is guiding to only up to 10% revenue growth in 2026, a target still contingent on uncertain U.S. COVID vaccination rates. Moderna does have real, disclosed AI initiatives -- a multi-year IBM collaboration exploring generative AI and quantum computing for mRNA sequence design, and a separate OpenAI collaboration dating to 2023 -- but neither has yet translated into a disclosed revenue or efficiency figure comparable to what Lilly has reported in manufacturing. The nearer-term story is pipeline execution: Moderna's norovirus vaccine missed its Phase III interim efficacy bar and needs an expanded cohort, while approvals for mCOMBRIAX and mNEXSPIKE in Europe and a possible U.S. approval of mFLUSIVA in 2H26 are the products that need to work for growth guidance to hold. Watch cash burn (H1 2026 net loss widened to $2.13B) against the pace of new product approvals.

Is MRNA a buy or sell in 2026?

Moderna Inc. (MRNA) carries a N/A quantitative rating from A.L. Capital Advisory, set by Discounted Cash Flow margin-of-safety band with no analyst-conviction overlay applied. Five-factor model scoring (Value, Quality, Momentum, Volatility, Size) and CVaR tail risk measurement are shown separately on the page. Current price: $59.17. Composite factor score: 3.0/5. Strongest factor: Volatility (4.0/5). Weakest factor: Quality (2.0/5). Analysis by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory. Full methodology: Rating Methodology (this page) →

What is the average analyst target price for MRNA?

Wall Street consensus target for MRNA: $50.84 (-14.1% downside from the current price of $59.17). The analyst target range spans $25.00 (most bearish) to $79.00 (most bullish). Consensus recommendation: Hold. Note that analyst price targets typically reflect a 12-month forward horizon and are derived from a blend of DCF, comparable-company, and sum-of-the-parts analysis. A.L. Capital Advisory's N/A composite rating is calculated from the blended margin-of-safety grade, applicable automatic fundamental penalties, and a disclosed qualitative analyst-conviction overlay — not from five-factor scores or CVaR, which are supporting diagnostics shown elsewhere on this page. The displayed blended fair value combines the standalone DCF output with Street consensus for well-covered names (see the DCF Assumptions box for the exact blend weight), so it does not track Street consensus mechanically, but it is not fully independent of it either. When the composite rating and the Street consensus recommendation diverge, the divergence itself is informative: it can reflect differences in time horizon, valuation methodology, or the degree to which the current price already discounts the consensus case. Analysis by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory. Full methodology: Data & Sources (this page) →

How does MRNA score on Value, Quality, Momentum, Volatility, and Size?

MRNA five-factor scores (A.L. Capital Advisory, 1–5 scale): Value 3.0/5 (neutral) — measures the trailing P/E multiple versus the sector median (not the DCF or blended fair-value range, which are separate metrics on this page); Quality 2.0/5 (below average) — captures profitability metrics including return on equity (ROE: -39.0%) and net margin (-141.4%) — sustained above-peer ROE and margins are the model's proxy for economic moat and pricing power; Momentum 3.0/5 (neutral) — reflects recent price trajectory and earnings surprise consistency; Volatility 4.0/5 (above average) — inverse measure derived from beta, where lower historical volatility earns a higher score; Size 3.0/5 (neutral) — market capitalisation rank (mega-cap $1T+ scores 5/5). Composite: 3.0/5. Factor scores above 4.0 signal a tailwind in that dimension; below 2.0 signals a material headwind. Analysis by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory.

What is MRNA's tail risk and CVaR?

The 95th-percentile Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) for MRNA on a one-month horizon is -26.5%. CVaR represents the expected average loss in the worst 5% of monthly outcomes — a more conservative tail risk measure than standard VaR, which only marks the loss threshold. Beta of 0.90 indicates broadly market-level systematic sensitivity — beta measures historical sensitivity to market moves, not total volatility. For reference, a diversified S&P 500 ETF carries a one-month CVaR of roughly -8% to -12% in normal market conditions; individual equity CVaR is higher due to idiosyncratic risk. At the portfolio level, what matters is the marginal CVaR contribution of each holding — not its standalone figure. The A.L. Capital Advisory Portfolio Health Check quantifies each position's marginal tail-risk contribution across your entire holdings. Analysis by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory. Full methodology: CVaR & Tail-Risk Methodology →

What would trigger a rating upgrade or downgrade for MRNA?

Upgrade trigger: Upgrade to Strong Buy on accelerating earnings momentum, improving factor scores, and a wider margin of safety. Downgrade trigger: Continued earnings misses or deteriorating balance sheet quality reducing the Quality factor score below 2.0/5. These triggers are reassessed each time the underlying fundamentals, price, or earnings data refresh — the current N/A rating is not held on a fixed review calendar. Analysis by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory. Full methodology: Rating Methodology (this page) →

Does MRNA consistently beat earnings estimates?

MRNA has beaten consensus EPS estimates in 4 of the 4 most recently reported quarters (100%) — indicating consistent delivery across the latest 4 reported quarters. The most recent reported quarter beat consensus by 4.3%. Sustained above-consensus delivery supports both the Momentum and Quality factor scores and provides a tailwind to the current rating. Across the 4 most recently reported quarters with valid consensus data, a beat rate above 70% signals consistent execution in this model, while a rate below 50% typically corresponds to a Momentum factor score of 3.0/5 or below. Earnings surprise magnitude and direction are incorporated into the Momentum and Quality dimensions of the five-factor scoring model. Analysis by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory. Full methodology: Earnings History (this page) →

How does MRNA contribute to portfolio risk and diversification?

MRNA carries a beta of 0.90 (moderate-volatility relative to the broad equity market). A beta above 1.0 means the position amplifies market moves in both directions at a typical portfolio weight. Strongest peer co-movement: PFE (0.25), LLY (0.20), ABBV (0.18). Holding MRNA alongside these names in the same portfolio increases concentration risk. True portfolio risk is a function of the full covariance structure — a single stock's beta does not reveal its marginal contribution to portfolio tail loss. The A.L. Capital Advisory Portfolio Health Check quantifies concentration risk (Herfindahl-Hirschman Index), pairwise correlations, and marginal CVaR contribution across all your holdings. If a single position such as this one makes up an outsized share of your net worth — employer stock, RSUs, or concentrated equity compensation — a Strategic Session builds the sequencing plan and the written allocation that follows from it. Analysis by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory. Full methodology: Ledoit-Wolf Covariance Framework →

What quantitative methodology does A.L. Capital Advisory use to analyse MRNA?

A.L. Capital Advisory analyses Moderna Inc. (MRNA) using a four-part quantitative research framework grounded in CFA Institute standards (not all four parts feed the composite rating formula directly — see below). (1) DCF Valuation: a two-stage earnings-based DCF that projects EPS (not free cash flow) under bear and bull assumptions, discounts at the CAPM cost of equity (the applicable rate for an equity-level metric like EPS, not a debt-weighted WACC) to produce an intrinsic value range with margin-of-safety calculation. (2) Five-Factor Scoring: each equity is scored 1–5 on Value, Quality, Momentum, Volatility, and Size. (3) CVaR Tail Risk: 95th-percentile Conditional Value at Risk from historical simulation of daily returns on a one-month horizon. (4) Earnings Surprise Analysis: quarterly beat rate and magnitude, shown for context alongside the factor scores. The current N/A composite rating for MRNA is calculated separately from this broader framework: it consists of a N/A quantitative grade, any automatic fundamental penalty, and a disclosed qualitative analyst-conviction overlay — see this page's Rating Methodology section for the exact formula. Five-factor scoring, CVaR and earnings surprise analysis below are supporting research diagnostics shown separately on this page; they are not direct numerical inputs into this specific composite-rating calculation. Analysis by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory. Full methodology: DCF Valuation Framework →  ·  CVaR & Tail-Risk Methodology →

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Anton Ladnyi — Founder & Portfolio Architect, A.L. Capital Advisory, ex-Goldman Sachs, CFA
Anton Ladnyi, CFA
Founder & Portfolio Architect — A.L. Capital Advisory
Ex-Goldman Sachs Equity Research · Ex-J.P. Morgan Wealth Management · CFA Charterholder
Data & Sources
MRNA data sources and as-of dates
MetricSourceObservation basis
[1] Company financials & management guidanceSEC EDGAR filings (all forms — 10-K, 10-Q, 8-K earnings releases) →Most recent reported quarter: 2026-06-30
[2] Market priceYahoo Finance quote →2026-08-08T10:26:46+00:00 (UTC) · Market closed (weekend)
[3] Consensus EPS & analyst price targetsYahoo Finance analyst estimates →Retrieved 2026-08-08T10:26:46+00:00 (UTC); see per-quarter analyst counts in Earnings Forecast; individual target ages/dates are not disclosed by the data provider
[4] Insider transactionsYahoo Finance insider transactions →Disclosed transaction dates shown inline where cited (SEC Form 4 basis)
[5] Short interestYahoo Finance key statistics →Most recent exchange settlement date on file with the data provider (exact settlement date not exposed by the provider's API; retrieved 2026-08-08T10:26:46+00:00 UTC)
[6] DCF valuation, five-factor model & composite ratingA.L. Capital Advisory proprietary model →Calculated 2026-08-08T10:26:46+00:00 (UTC); see Rating Methodology above for the exact formula
Legal Disclaimer & Important Notices

This analysis is produced using a systematic quantitative framework applied to market data and does not constitute investment advice. Prose commentary is AI-assisted and generated from structured quantitative inputs. All data and metrics are as of 2026-08-08 and are point-in-time estimates subject to revision without notice. CVaR figures are based on historical simulation and do not guarantee future outcomes. DCF ranges and upgrade/downgrade triggers are forward-looking statements based on current assumptions and may not materialise. Past performance does not guarantee future results. This analysis does not account for individual circumstances, tax position, or investment objectives — consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. This content is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute regulated investment advice under MiFID II or FCA guidelines. This content is not intended for US persons or residents of jurisdictions where its distribution would be contrary to local law or regulation. This service is not directed at residents of Finland, Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Iceland, or Poland. The author may hold long or short positions in securities mentioned in this analysis. Nothing on this page represents a solicitation to buy or sell any security. A.L. Capital Advisory is an independent private advisory practice and is not affiliated with Moderna Inc.

CFA Portfolio Advisory — MRNA Discuss this analysis, position sizing, or your full portfolio mandate with Anton Ladnyi, CFA.