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Healthcare · Equity Analysis
Moderna Inc. (MRNA) Stock Analysis - DCF Valuation & AI Disruption Risk
By Anton Ladnyi, CFA · ex-Goldman Sachs · ex-J.P. MorganPublished Updated
MRNA — up 130%+ to ~$143 on Aug 19, 2026 after Phase 3 INTerpath-001 melanoma vaccine win and mFLUSIVA flu approval, but consensus targets ($50-67) still sat 55-65% below that level, leaving a historic re-rating priced well ahead of the Street.
Quantitative model rating — not individualized investment advice.
How Is This Rating Calculated?
A.L. Capital Advisory Equity Composite model · calculated 2026-08-22. Four calculation steps, in order — steps 1, 2 and 4 are rules-based; step 3 is a disclosed qualitative analyst overlay mapped to a fixed numerical scale:
1. Margin of safety → quantitative grade
MRNA's margin of safety is -62.46% (base case $89 vs. price $145.13). Margin of safety here is defined as (fair value − price) / fair value — this is the formula the quant grade below is actually assigned from. It is not the same figure as the gauge's "Upside to Base" pill above, which uses (fair value − price) / price and will read a larger number for the same inputs. The standalone EPS-based DCF is not shown as a margin-of-safety figure here because it is not economically meaningful for MRNA at the current earnings level: EPS is negative ($-4.58), so an EPS-based DCF cannot produce a meaningful intrinsic value — the rating below is based on analyst consensus only, where available — the blended figure above is weighted 100% to analyst consensus for this reason, not by the standard coverage-depth tier.
Rules are cumulative (multiple can fire on the same ticker) and purely mechanical — no analyst judgment is involved in step 2.
3. Thesis conviction modifier
Analyst conviction: low · modifier: -0.60. This is a qualitative analyst judgment on the written thesis, mapped to a fixed numeric modifier below — it is not algorithmically derived from a measurable indicator.
Analyst-conviction modifier scale
Conviction level
Modifier
Very High
+1.00
High
+0.60
Medium
+0.00
Low
-0.60
Very Low
-1.00
General guidance for the assigning analyst (not an algorithmic rule — conviction is assigned by editorial judgment on the written thesis, not computed): Very High/High — multiple thesis pillars confirmed by the most recent reported quarter, no unresolved red flags. Medium — mixed evidence, or a thesis not yet differentiated enough to lean either direction. Low/Very Low — one or more thesis pillars deteriorating, or a material data-quality concern. Assigned and reviewed each time the underlying thesis is updated (see the thesis "last updated" date on this page).
This is the exact formula the model runs — not a post-hoc explanation. Source: composite_grade.py, A.L. Capital Advisory Equity Composite.
MRNA Price Target & Rating
MRNA's quantitative grade is Avoid, with elevated downside risk (CVaR -26.5%), and quality metrics (net margin -1%, ROE -39%). Moderna Inc. (MRNA) trades at $145.13 with a Avoid composite rating: net margins of -1.4%, a blended fair-value range of $25–$170 suggesting a -62% margin of safety, beta 0.90 (moderate risk profile).
What Is MRNA's DCF Intrinsic Value and Blended Fair Value Range?
MRNA's blended fair-value range is $25–$170 (base case $89), against a current price of $145.13.
MRNA blended fair-value gauge — bear case $25, base case $89, bull case $170, current price $145.13.
Price & DCF data as of
How Does MRNA's Margin of Safety Change as the Price Moves?
Drag to simulate MRNA's price moving between the blended bear ($25) and bull ($170) fair-value anchors — left for a price fall, right for a rise — and see how the margin of safety vs A.L. Capital Advisory's $89 blended base-case fair value changes. Starting point: the page's as-of price of $145.13 on 2026-08-22.
DCF Assumptions
Two-stage earnings-based DCF on forward EPS of $-4.58 (Yahoo Finance forwardEps: provider-aggregated next-fiscal-year consensus estimate, not a fixed trailing-12-month window): explicit 5-year forecast at the stage-1 growth rate below, discounted at the CAPM cost of equity, plus a Gordon Growth terminal value at the terminal growth rate, also discounted at the CAPM cost of equity. This model discounts projected EPS — an equity-level metric — directly, not free cash flow, so the cost of equity is the theoretically correct discount rate; this is not a debt-weighted WACC (no cost of debt or capital-structure weighting is applied). Source: A.L. Capital Advisory DCF engine (api.py).
DCF assumptions by scenario
Input
Bear
Base
Bull
Stage-1 (near-term) growth
4.50%
10.00%
15.00%
Terminal growth
2.50%
2.50%
2.50%
CAPM cost of equity (discount rate)
10.45%
9.68%
8.91%
Forecast horizon
5 years
5 years
5 years
CAPM cost of equity = risk-free rate (4.74%, a live 10-year Treasury yield (Yahoo Finance ^TNX) fetched at page-generation time, 2026-08-22T13:06:07+00:00 UTC) + beta (0.90) × 5.5% equity risk premium, floored at 6% and capped at 18%. Stage-1 growth is a sector-level base rate (bear/bull apply 0.45x/1.50x multipliers); terminal growth is held constant across scenarios. Bear/bull cost of equity applies a ±8% relative adjustment to the base rate, clamped to the same 6–18% band.
The DCF output above is not the final intrinsic value shown elsewhere on this page. It is blended with the Wall Street analyst consensus price target to avoid extreme single-model divergence, weighted by analyst coverage depth (18 analysts covering this stock → 0.00% DCF / 100.00% consensus). The blended figure is the intrinsic value used for margin-of-safety and the composite rating.
DCF-to-intrinsic-value blend by scenario
Scenario
Pure DCF value
Analyst target used
Blended intrinsic value (displayed)
Bear
$0.00
$25.00
$25.00
Base
$0.00
$89.33
$89.33
Bull
$0.00
$170.00
$170.00
Blended value = (0.00% × pure DCF) + (100.00% × analyst target). Bear/bull scenarios blend against the analyst low/high target rather than the mean.
Analyst-coverage-to-consensus-weight tiers
Analyst coverage
Weight
0–1 analysts
0.00% consensus / 100.00% DCF
2–4 analysts
40.00% consensus / 60.00% DCF
5–19 analysts
65.00% consensus / 35.00% DCF
20+ analysts
75.00% consensus / 25.00% DCF
The consensus weight is a fixed step function of analyst coverage depth (above), not adjusted for target age, dispersion, or outliers — the mean/low/high analyst targets are used as reported by the data provider with no filtering.
DCF applicability gate triggered: the pure DCF figures in the table above are shown for transparency only and are not economically meaningful — EPS is negative ($-4.58), so an EPS-based DCF cannot produce a meaningful intrinsic value — the rating below is based on analyst consensus only, where available. The blend weight above is therefore forced to 100% analyst consensus regardless of the standard coverage-depth tier.
Key Takeaways
Valuation: Avoid grade — blended fair-value range $25–$170 implies -62% margin of safety
Risk: CVaR -26.5% (95th percentile, 1-month) indicates high tail exposure; beta of 0.90 amplifies broad market moves in both directions
Strengths: Size 4.0/5, -1% net margin, -39% ROE dominate the factor profile
Catalyst: Detailed INTerpath-001 RFS/DMFS hazard-ratio data presentation at an upcoming medical meeting, plus regulatory filing timeline for intismeran autogene + Keytruda in adjuvant melanoma
Bear catalyst: Detailed melanoma data disclosed at the upcoming medical meeting undershoots the Phase 2 benchmark or reveals safety signals, mFLUSIVA's 2026-27 flu season launch underperforms against entrenched incumbents, or the stock fails to hold gains above the pre-announcement ~$63 level (last close before the Aug 19, 2026 melanoma readout) as the initial reaction fades
MRNA — Quantitative SnapshotAugust 2026
RatingAvoid
Price$145.13
Why AvoidTrading at a significant premium to intrinsic value — DCF and analyst consensus suggest limited margin of safety; valuation risk outweighs near-term upside
Main riskHigh tail risk — CVaR -26.5% on a one-month horizon
Tail riskCVaR -26.5% over one month at the 95th percentile
Blended fair-value range$25–$170 blended fair-value range; margin of safety -62%
Best useCore large-cap Healthcare holding — not a source of diversified sector exposure
Next watchEarnings surprise deceleration trend — monitor next quarter delivery closely
How Does MRNA Score on the Five-Factor Quantitative Model?
MRNA's composite five-factor score is 3.2/5, led by Volatility (4.0/5) and weakest on Quality (2.0/5).
MRNA five-factor radar — Value 3.0, Quality 2.0, Momentum 3.0, Volatility 4.0, Size 4.0 (out of 5).
Value
3.0 / 5
Quality
2.0 / 5
Momentum
3.0 / 5
Volatility
4.0 / 5
Size
4.0 / 5
MRNA Five-Factor Quantitative Scores
Factor
Score
Value
3.0 / 5
Quality
2.0 / 5
Momentum
3.0 / 5
Volatility
4.0 / 5
Size
4.0 / 5
What Is MRNA's AI-Era Durability and Disruption Risk?
AI Disruption Risk: Elevated
Moderna's durability challenge is post-pandemic demand collapse, not AI: revenue fell from $19.3B in 2022 to $1.9B in full-year 2025 with a GAAP net loss of $2.8B, and the company is guiding to only up to 10% revenue growth in 2026, a target still contingent on uncertain U.S. COVID vaccination rates. Moderna does have real, disclosed AI initiatives -- a multi-year IBM collaboration exploring generative AI and quantum computing for mRNA sequence design, and a separate OpenAI collaboration dating to 2023 -- but neither has yet translated into a disclosed revenue or efficiency figure comparable to what Lilly has reported in manufacturing. The nearer-term story is pipeline execution: Moderna's norovirus vaccine missed its Phase III interim efficacy bar and needs an expanded cohort, while approvals for mCOMBRIAX and mNEXSPIKE in Europe and a possible U.S. approval of mFLUSIVA in 2H26 are the products that need to work for growth guidance to hold. Watch cash burn (H1 2026 net loss widened to $2.13B) against the pace of new product approvals.
Key Metrics
MRNA Key Metrics — Moderna Inc. 2026
Metric
Value
Current Price
$145.13
Forward P/E
-31.7x
P/S Ratio
26.0
EV/EBITDA
-24.6
Beta
0.90
Net Margin
-1.4%
ROE
-39.0%
Debt/Equity
19.0%
CVaR (95%, 1M)
-26.5%
Market Cap
$57.9B
1-Month CVaR Methodology
The 1M CVaR-95 figure shown in Key Metrics, the peer comparison table and this page's hero card is computed as follows:
Lookback: most recent 1 year of daily prices.
Return input: daily log returns on dividend/split-adjusted close prices.
Confidence level: 95% (worst 5% of the resulting rolling-month observations).
Quantile convention: floor-based cutoff — the worst floor(N × 0.05) rolling-month observations (minimum 1), not a rounded or interpolated percentile.
CVaR: arithmetic mean of that worst-5% tail, expressed as a percentage.
Corporate actions: reflected via adjusted-close pricing (dividends and splits are accounted for).
1M CVaR-95 by lookback window
Method
1M CVaR-95
Trailing 1-year historical
-26.5%
Trailing 3-year historical
-37.1%
Trailing 5-year historical
-38.6%
The 1-year figure is what appears elsewhere on this page. Because it is built from overlapping 21-day windows over a single year, it reflects roughly the last ~11 non-independent tail events and is sensitive to the specific market regime of that year — treat it as a trailing-window historical estimate, not a structurally stable long-run risk parameter. The 3- and 5-year figures use the same methodology over longer, more regime-diverse histories.
This is a separate calculation from the 1-Day VaR/CVaR shown in the Tail Risk Profile chart below, which uses raw (non-overlapping) daily returns rather than rolling monthly sums — see that chart's own methodology note for the daily-horizon convention.
Tail Risk Profile
Historical Simulation · Daily Log Returns
MRNA — Daily Return Distribution
Moderna Inc. · 250 trading days · CVaR illustrated on real data
Aug 2025 – Aug 2026
Daily log returns
95%
-7.12%
1-Day VaR · 95%
95th-percentile loss threshold
-9.53%
1-Day CVaR · 95%
Avg loss in tail
13
Days in tail
of 250 sessions
250
Daily returns
Aug 2025 – Aug 2026
Historical VaR uses the nearest-rank convention: the worst observation within the tail (empirical (1−confidence) fraction of trading days). Historical CVaR is the arithmetic mean of all observations at or below that VaR threshold — so VaR is always included inside the CVaR tail, not one observation outside it.
Anton Ladnyi, CFA · A.L. Capital AdvisoryUpdated 2026-08-22
Rating Rationale
MRNA — up 130%+ to ~$143 on Aug 19, 2026 after Phase 3 INTerpath-001 melanoma vaccine win and mFLUSIVA flu approval, but consensus targets ($50-67) still sat 55-65% below that level, leaving a historic re-rating priced well ahead of the Street.
Investment Thesis
↑ Bull Case
Phase 3 INTerpath-001 (1,137 patients) met both recurrence-free survival and distant metastasis-free survival endpoints for intismeran autogene + Keytruda in resected melanoma (Aug 19, 2026) — the first-ever positive Phase 3 readout for an mRNA cancer therapy, building on the 49% RFS and 59% DMFS risk reductions shown in 5-year Phase 2 data
FDA approved mFLUSIVA (mRNA-1010) seasonal flu vaccine for adults 50+ in August 2026, Moderna's 5th global product and 4th FDA-approved therapy, targeting the 2026-27 flu season with global filings underway
Q2 2026 EPS of -$1.97 beat the -$2.01 consensus estimate, with cost-of-sales guidance trimmed to $1.7 billion and up to 10% full-year revenue growth reaffirmed
$3 billion melanoma sales estimate by 2035 from Barclays for intismeran autogene alone, with multiple Phase 2/3 trials testing the neoantigen platform across additional tumor types that could extend the addressable market well beyond melanoma
357% year-to-date stock rally through August 19, 2026, with the single-day melanoma reaction registering as Moderna's best trading day on record (+126-134%) and options volume ~19x the intraday average, signaling a structural re-rating of the mRNA cancer platform rather than a one-off pop
↓ Bear Case
$50-67 range of freshly raised analyst price targets (Citi to $60 from $41, Goldman Sachs to $67 from $49, UBS to ~$50) sat 55-65% below the ~$143 level shares reached on Aug 19, 2026, with all three firms holding Neutral ratings rather than upgrading
Norovirus Phase 3 trial failed to hit early success criteria, disclosed the same week as the melanoma win, underscoring that the same pipeline generating the flu/oncology catalysts also carries binary failure risk elsewhere
$782 million Q2 2026 net loss and negative $526 million operating cash flow show the core cash-burn problem is unresolved even as headline EPS beat, with 2028 still the guided cash-breakeven target
No numerical RFS/DMFS hazard ratios disclosed with the Aug 19 topline readout — companies withheld specific data pending a future medical meeting, leaving the magnitude of benefit (and durability of the 130%+ stock move) unverified against the 49%/59% Phase 2 benchmarks
What Changes the Rating
↑Catalyst:Detailed INTerpath-001 data confirms a hazard ratio at or better than the 49% Phase 2 recurrence-risk reduction, the FDA grants accelerated approval for intismeran autogene ahead of typical timelines, and sell-side price targets are raised materially above the current $50-67 range toward the trading price
↓Model downgrade conditions:Detailed melanoma data disclosed at the upcoming medical meeting undershoots the Phase 2 benchmark or reveals safety signals, mFLUSIVA's 2026-27 flu season launch underperforms against entrenched incumbents, or the stock fails to hold gains above the pre-announcement ~$63 level (last close before the Aug 19, 2026 melanoma readout) as the initial reaction fades
Anton’s personal note
The rating on MRNA is driven by a factor profile that is genuinely mixed — there is no clean narrative here, which is itself a signal worth taking seriously. What I watch on this name is earnings consistency — specifically whether delivery against consensus is stable or deteriorating. That is usually where the rating gets confirmed or challenged before the price reflects it. The scenario that changes my read is a genuine valuation reset — not a small pullback, but a re-rating that reflects the actual risk profile. Until that happens, the risk/reward is not there.
— Anton Ladnyi, CFA
Earnings History
MRNA Earnings History — EPS Surprise Rate 2026
Quarter
EPS Est. (consensus)
EPS Actual (adjusted, consensus basis)
Surprise
Q2 2026
$-2.06
$-1.97
+4.3% ✓
Q1 2026
$-3.88
$-3.40
+12.4% ✓
Q4 2025
$-2.60
$-2.11
+18.9% ✓
Q3 2025
$-2.18
$-0.51
+76.6% ✓
EPS Actual is on the same adjusted/non-GAAP basis as the consensus estimate it is compared against (excludes one-time items, consistent with how Wall Street EPS estimates are typically constructed) — it will generally differ from the company's GAAP diluted EPS as reported in its official financial statements. Verify the GAAP figure against the issuer's original earnings release if that basis is what you need.
How Has MRNA Performed vs. Wall Street EPS Estimates?
MRNA has beaten consensus EPS estimates in 4 of the last 4 reported quarters (100%).
MRNA quarterly EPS — estimate vs. actual, 4 most recent reported quarters, 100% beat rate.
Earnings Projections
MRNA Forward EPS Consensus Estimates 2026
Quarter
EPS Est.
YoY EPS
Analysts
Q3 2026
$-1.36
-166.7%
14
Q4 2026
$-1.87
+11.4%
14
Q1 2027
~$-1.22
+64.1%
18
Q2 2027
~$-1.22
+38.1%
18
~ Estimated from annual consensus — not a direct analyst survey
What Are Wall Street's EPS Estimates for MRNA?
Wall Street's next-quarter consensus EPS estimate for MRNA is $-1.36.
MRNA consensus EPS estimates, next quarter $-1.36, 4 quarters shown.
Composite rating: Avoid • CVaR from one-year daily history · historical simulation
Editorial Analyst Scenarios
Revenue growth × exit multiple (editorial, not mechanically reproducible from disclosed inputs) · hover each scenario for detail · current price $145.13
▼
Bear Case
$60
-58.7%
Implied NTM P/E: — (target ÷ next-4Q consensus EPS — distinct from the exit multiple below, which is applied to a later-year EPS estimate)
-5% revenue CAGR · 5x exit multiple
◆
Base Case
$100
-31.1%
Implied NTM P/E: — (target ÷ next-4Q consensus EPS — distinct from the exit multiple below, which is applied to a later-year EPS estimate)
15% revenue CAGR · 9x exit multiple
▲
Bull Case
$185
+27.5%
Implied NTM P/E: — (target ÷ next-4Q consensus EPS — distinct from the exit multiple below, which is applied to a later-year EPS estimate)
30% revenue CAGR · 14x exit multiple
How Correlated Is MRNA With Its Sector Peers?
0 of 10 peer pairs correlated above 0.60, indicating meaningful historical diversification across the selected names, although all remain exposed to common equity, sector and macro factors.
MRNA pairwise correlation heatmap across 5 peers — 0 of 10 pairs above 0.60.
0 of 10 peer pairs correlated above 0.60, indicating meaningful historical diversification across the selected names, although all remain exposed to common equity, sector and macro factors.
Extended Analysis — Buy, Hold or Sell? Risk Factors. Portfolio Fit.
Is MRNA a buy, hold, or sell?
MRNA carries a quantitative grade of Avoid. Our two-stage, EPS-based DCF model produces a pure model range of $0–$0. After blending with Street consensus targets, the displayed fair-value range is $25–$170 — implying a -62% margin of safety vs. blended base fair value at the current price of $145.13. The width of the range reflects genuine uncertainty in the terminal growth rate assumption: the correct framework is a probability-weighted distribution over scenarios, not a single point estimate. See the DCF valuation framework for full methodology.
MRNA has beaten consensus estimates in 100% of the last 4 reported quarters, signalling strong execution consistency. The most recent quarter delivered a 4.3% earnings surprise. Analyst estimate revisions are trending downward.
What are MRNA's key risk factors?
With a beta of 0.90, MRNA exhibits a defensive risk profile relative to the broad market. The 95th-percentile CVaR of -26.5% on a one-month horizon should inform position sizing directly: at a 10% portfolio weight, this standalone tail outcome corresponds to approximately 2.7% of portfolio value before accounting for correlations with other holdings — not a marginal portfolio CVaR contribution, which depends on the full covariance structure. Net margins of -1.4% fall below the Healthcare sector average of 18%, suggesting margin pressure. The balance sheet is conservatively leveraged at 19% debt-to-equity.
The options market shows a put/call ratio of 2.87, reflecting a notably bearish skew in derivative positioning. Insiders have been net sellers to the tune of $13.3M over the disclosed transactions from 2024-08-27 to 2026-08-06. While routine dispositions are common, the magnitude bears watching. Short interest of 15.2% of float is elevated, reflecting meaningful bearish positioning.
How does MRNA fit in a diversified portfolio?
At typical HENRY portfolio weights — 10–20% of the equity allocation — MRNA carries a beta of 0.90, meaning it amplifies broad market moves proportionally. The appropriate weight is not a function of conviction alone, but of the full covariance structure across all holdings. See the Ledoit-Wolf covariance framework for the methodology behind these calculations.
Among closely correlated names, MRNA shows the strongest co-movement with PFE (0.27), LLY (0.22), ABBV (0.19). Investors seeking diversification should note these correlation dynamics when constructing multi-asset portfolios.
True portfolio risk is a function of the full covariance structure across all holdings — not individual stock metrics. The Portfolio Health Check quantifies this at the portfolio level: it surfaces hidden concentration, marginal CVaR contributions, and the degree to which your overall allocation deviates from an optimal risk-adjusted mandate. The MRNA analysis here is a single node in that larger structure.
For the portfolio construction framework underpinning MRNA’s position sizing and conviction rating — including IPS guardrails, Black-Litterman allocation, and CVaR constraints — see: Investment Policy Statement Framework →
Investor FAQ
What is MRNA's AI-Era Durability & Disruption Risk Score?
Moderna's durability challenge is post-pandemic demand collapse, not AI: revenue fell from $19.3B in 2022 to $1.9B in full-year 2025 with a GAAP net loss of $2.8B, and the company is guiding to only up to 10% revenue growth in 2026, a target still contingent on uncertain U.S. COVID vaccination rates. Moderna does have real, disclosed AI initiatives -- a multi-year IBM collaboration exploring generative AI and quantum computing for mRNA sequence design, and a separate OpenAI collaboration dating to 2023 -- but neither has yet translated into a disclosed revenue or efficiency figure comparable to what Lilly has reported in manufacturing. The nearer-term story is pipeline execution: Moderna's norovirus vaccine missed its Phase III interim efficacy bar and needs an expanded cohort, while approvals for mCOMBRIAX and mNEXSPIKE in Europe and a possible U.S. approval of mFLUSIVA in 2H26 are the products that need to work for growth guidance to hold. Watch cash burn (H1 2026 net loss widened to $2.13B) against the pace of new product approvals.
What is MRNA's intrinsic value and DCF price target?
A.L. Capital Advisory's model produces a blended fair-value range (0% pure DCF, 100% analyst consensus) of $25 (bear case) to $170 (bull case) for Moderna Inc. (MRNA). At $145.13, the margin of safety vs. blended base case is -62% (positive = discount to fair value; negative = premium). The bear-to-bull spread reflects genuine sensitivity to the two dominant DCF inputs: the terminal growth rate and the CAPM cost of equity (this model discounts EPS, an equity-level metric, so the cost of equity rather than a debt-weighted WACC is the applicable discount rate). Terminal value typically accounts for 60-80% of total intrinsic value in most equity DCF models, which is why a range is more analytically sound than a point estimate. The central analytical question is not what the DCF outputs as a single number but which growth trajectory the current market price already discounts. All DCF analysis follows CFA Institute standards and is conducted by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory. Full methodology: DCF Valuation Framework →
Is MRNA a buy or sell in 2026?
Moderna Inc. (MRNA) carries a Avoid quantitative rating from A.L. Capital Advisory, set by Discounted Cash Flow margin-of-safety band with no analyst-conviction overlay applied. Five-factor model scoring (Value, Quality, Momentum, Volatility, Size) and CVaR tail risk measurement are shown separately on the page. At $145.13, the margin of safety vs. blended base fair value is -62% (blended fair-value range: $25 bear – $170 bull). That places the current price in the Fair Range zone of A.L. Capital Advisory's DCF framework, which sets the quantitative grade component that determines this rating. Composite factor score: 3.2/5. Strongest factor: Volatility (4.0/5). Weakest factor: Quality (2.0/5). Analysis by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory. Full methodology: Rating Methodology (this page) →
What is the average analyst target price for MRNA?
Wall Street consensus target for MRNA: $89.33 (-38.4% downside from the current price of $145.13). The analyst target range spans $25.00 (most bearish) to $170.00 (most bullish). Consensus recommendation: Hold. Note that analyst price targets typically reflect a 12-month forward horizon and are derived from a blend of DCF, comparable-company, and sum-of-the-parts analysis. A.L. Capital Advisory's Avoid composite rating is calculated from the blended margin-of-safety grade, applicable automatic fundamental penalties, and a disclosed qualitative analyst-conviction overlay — not from five-factor scores or CVaR, which are supporting diagnostics shown elsewhere on this page. The displayed blended fair value combines the standalone DCF output with Street consensus for well-covered names (see the DCF Assumptions box for the exact blend weight), so it does not track Street consensus mechanically, but it is not fully independent of it either. When the composite rating and the Street consensus recommendation diverge, the divergence itself is informative: it can reflect differences in time horizon, valuation methodology, or the degree to which the current price already discounts the consensus case. Analysis by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory. Full methodology: Data & Sources (this page) →
How does MRNA score on Value, Quality, Momentum, Volatility, and Size?
MRNA five-factor scores (A.L. Capital Advisory, 1–5 scale): Value 3.0/5 (neutral) — measures the trailing P/E multiple versus the sector median (not the DCF or blended fair-value range, which are separate metrics on this page); Quality 2.0/5 (below average) — captures profitability metrics including return on equity (ROE: -39.0%) and net margin (-141.4%) — sustained above-peer ROE and margins are the model's proxy for economic moat and pricing power; Momentum 3.0/5 (neutral) — reflects recent price trajectory and earnings surprise consistency; Volatility 4.0/5 (above average) — inverse measure derived from beta, where lower historical volatility earns a higher score; Size 4.0/5 (above average) — market capitalisation rank (mega-cap $1T+ scores 5/5). Composite: 3.2/5. Factor scores above 4.0 signal a tailwind in that dimension; below 2.0 signals a material headwind. Analysis by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory.
What is MRNA's tail risk and CVaR?
The 95th-percentile Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) for MRNA on a one-month horizon is -26.5%. CVaR represents the expected average loss in the worst 5% of monthly outcomes — a more conservative tail risk measure than standard VaR, which only marks the loss threshold. Beta of 0.90 indicates broadly market-level systematic sensitivity — beta measures historical sensitivity to market moves, not total volatility. For reference, a diversified S&P 500 ETF carries a one-month CVaR of roughly -8% to -12% in normal market conditions; individual equity CVaR is higher due to idiosyncratic risk. At the portfolio level, what matters is the marginal CVaR contribution of each holding — not its standalone figure. The A.L. Capital Advisory Portfolio Health Check quantifies each position's marginal tail-risk contribution across your entire holdings. Analysis by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory. Full methodology: CVaR & Tail-Risk Methodology →
What would trigger a rating upgrade or downgrade for MRNA?
Upgrade trigger: Upgrade to Strong Buy on accelerating earnings momentum, improving factor scores, and a wider margin of safety. Downgrade trigger: Continued earnings misses or deteriorating balance sheet quality reducing the Quality factor score below 2.0/5. These triggers are reassessed each time the underlying fundamentals, price, or earnings data refresh — the current Avoid rating is not held on a fixed review calendar. Analysis by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory. Full methodology: Rating Methodology (this page) →
Does MRNA consistently beat earnings estimates?
MRNA has beaten consensus EPS estimates in 4 of the 4 most recently reported quarters (100%) — indicating consistent delivery across the latest 4 reported quarters. The most recent reported quarter beat consensus by 4.3%. Sustained above-consensus delivery supports both the Momentum and Quality factor scores and provides a tailwind to the current rating. Across the 4 most recently reported quarters with valid consensus data, a beat rate above 70% signals consistent execution in this model, while a rate below 50% typically corresponds to a Momentum factor score of 3.0/5 or below. Earnings surprise magnitude and direction are incorporated into the Momentum and Quality dimensions of the five-factor scoring model. Analysis by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory. Full methodology: Earnings History (this page) →
How does MRNA contribute to portfolio risk and diversification?
MRNA carries a beta of 0.90 (moderate-volatility relative to the broad equity market). A beta above 1.0 means the position amplifies market moves in both directions at a typical portfolio weight. Strongest peer co-movement: PFE (0.27), LLY (0.22), ABBV (0.19). Holding MRNA alongside these names in the same portfolio increases concentration risk. True portfolio risk is a function of the full covariance structure — a single stock's beta does not reveal its marginal contribution to portfolio tail loss. The A.L. Capital Advisory Portfolio Health Check quantifies concentration risk (Herfindahl-Hirschman Index), pairwise correlations, and marginal CVaR contribution across all your holdings. If a single position such as this one makes up an outsized share of your net worth — employer stock, RSUs, or concentrated equity compensation — a Strategic Session builds the sequencing plan and the written allocation that follows from it. Analysis by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory. Full methodology: Ledoit-Wolf Covariance Framework →
What quantitative methodology does A.L. Capital Advisory use to analyse MRNA?
A.L. Capital Advisory analyses Moderna Inc. (MRNA) using a four-part quantitative research framework grounded in CFA Institute standards (not all four parts feed the composite rating formula directly — see below). (1) DCF Valuation: a two-stage earnings-based DCF that projects EPS (not free cash flow) under bear and bull assumptions, discounts at the CAPM cost of equity (the applicable rate for an equity-level metric like EPS, not a debt-weighted WACC) to produce an intrinsic value range with margin-of-safety calculation. (2) Five-Factor Scoring: each equity is scored 1–5 on Value, Quality, Momentum, Volatility, and Size. (3) CVaR Tail Risk: 95th-percentile Conditional Value at Risk from historical simulation of daily returns on a one-month horizon. (4) Earnings Surprise Analysis: quarterly beat rate and magnitude, shown for context alongside the factor scores. The current Avoid composite rating for MRNA is calculated separately from this broader framework: it consists of a Avoid quantitative grade, any automatic fundamental penalty, and a disclosed qualitative analyst-conviction overlay — see this page's Rating Methodology section for the exact formula. Five-factor scoring, CVaR and earnings surprise analysis below are supporting research diagnostics shown separately on this page; they are not direct numerical inputs into this specific composite-rating calculation. Analysis by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory. Full methodology: DCF Valuation Framework → · CVaR & Tail-Risk Methodology →
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Retrieved 2026-08-22T13:06:07+00:00 (UTC); see per-quarter analyst counts in Earnings Forecast; individual target ages/dates are not disclosed by the data provider
Most recent exchange settlement date on file with the data provider (exact settlement date not exposed by the provider's API; retrieved 2026-08-22T13:06:07+00:00 UTC)
[6] DCF valuation, five-factor model & composite rating
Calculated 2026-08-22T13:06:07+00:00 (UTC); see Rating Methodology above for the exact formula
Hand-authored thesis commentary (bull/bear case, catalysts, AI-Era Durability Score narrative) is cross-checked against the company's own investor-relations disclosures at time of writing; figures presented as A.L. Capital Advisory estimates are proprietary forecasts, not company guidance, unless explicitly attributed to the issuer.
Market-session status above is derived from the page's UTC generation time using standard NYSE hours (9:30am–4:00pm ET regular session); it does not account for US market holidays and may be inaccurate on those dates.
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Legal Disclaimer & Important Notices
This analysis is produced using a systematic quantitative framework applied to market data and does not constitute investment advice. Prose commentary is AI-assisted and generated from structured quantitative inputs. All data and metrics are as of 2026-08-22 and are point-in-time estimates subject to revision without notice. CVaR figures are based on historical simulation and do not guarantee future outcomes. DCF ranges and upgrade/downgrade triggers are forward-looking statements based on current assumptions and may not materialise. Past performance does not guarantee future results. This analysis does not account for individual circumstances, tax position, or investment objectives — consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. This content is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute regulated investment advice under MiFID II or FCA guidelines. This content is not intended for US persons or residents of jurisdictions where its distribution would be contrary to local law or regulation. This service is not directed at residents of Finland, Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Iceland, or Poland. The author may hold long or short positions in securities mentioned in this analysis. Nothing on this page represents a solicitation to buy or sell any security. A.L. Capital Advisory is an independent private advisory practice and is not affiliated with Moderna Inc.
CFA Portfolio Advisory — MRNA
Discuss this analysis, position sizing, or your full portfolio mandate with Anton Ladnyi, CFA.
