Healthcare · Equity Analysis

Moderna Inc. (MRNA) Stock Analysis - Price Target, N/A Rating & DCF Valuation (2026)

By Anton Ladnyi, CFA · ex-Goldman Sachs · ex-J.P. Morgan Published 2026-07-09 Updated 2026-07-09

MRNA — stock has nearly tripled off June lows to ~$78 on flu-vaccine and oncology hype, but most analyst targets ($30-69) sit below spot, leaving valuation stretched into binary Aug 5 PDUFA risk.

MRNA Price Target & Rating

MRNA's quantitative grade is N/A, with elevated downside risk (CVaR -25.9%), and quality metrics (net margin -1%, ROE -37%). Moderna Inc. (MRNA) trades at $76.56 with a valuation grade of N/A: net margins of -1.4%, beta 0.94 (moderate risk profile).

Key Takeaways

Valuation: N/A grade
Risk: CVaR -25.9% (95th percentile, 1-month) indicates moderate tail exposure; beta of 0.94 amplifies broad market moves in both directions
Strengths: -1% net margin, -37% ROE dominate the factor profile
Catalyst: FDA PDUFA decision on mRNA-1010 seasonal flu vaccine due August 5, 2026
Bear catalyst: FDA issues a complete response letter or restricts the mRNA-1010 label below expectations, cash burn accelerates faster than the $4.5-5.0 billion year-end 2026 guidance implies, or intismeran autogene Phase 3 data disappoints versus the Phase 2 49% recurrence-risk benefit

MRNA — Quantitative Snapshot July 2026

RatingN/A

Price$76.56

Why N/AQuantitative factor profile is mixed — see full analysis below

Main riskElevated tail risk — CVaR -25.9% on a one-month horizon

Tail riskCVaR -25.9% over one month at the 95th percentile

Best useCore large-cap Healthcare holding — not a source of diversified sector exposure

Next watchEarnings surprise deceleration trend — monitor next quarter delivery closely

Quantitative Factor Profile

Value: 3.0 / 5
Quality: 2.0 / 5
Momentum: 3.0 / 5
Volatility: 4.0 / 5
Size: 3.0 / 5

Key Metrics

MRNA Key Metrics — Moderna Inc. 2026
Metric	Value
Current Price	$76.56
Forward P/E	-18.5x
P/S Ratio	13.7
EV/EBITDA	-11.0
Beta	0.94
Net Margin	-1.4%
ROE	-36.6%
Debt/Equity	17.5%
CVaR (95%, 1M)	-25.9%
Market Cap	$30.4B

Tail Risk Profile

Historical Simulation · Daily Log Returns

MRNA — Daily Return Distribution

Moderna Inc. · 250 trading days · CVaR illustrated on real data

Jul 2025 – Jul 2026 Daily log returns

Confidence level 95%

-6.78%

VaR · 95%

Max-loss threshold

-7.75%

CVaR · 95%

Avg loss in tail

Days in tail

of 250 sessions

250

Daily returns

Jul 2025 – Jul 2026

ℹ️

Risk Framework · A.L. Capital Advisory

CVaR & Tail-Risk Methodology

Why variance understates downside risk in non-normal distributions — and how CVaR corrects that blind spot

→

Analyst View

Anton Ladnyi, CFA · A.L. Capital Advisory Updated 2026-07-09

Rating Rationale

MRNA — stock has nearly tripled off June lows to ~$78 on flu-vaccine and oncology hype, but most analyst targets ($30-69) sit below spot, leaving valuation stretched into binary Aug 5 PDUFA risk.

Investment Thesis

↑ Bull Case

9-0 unanimous FDA advisory committee vote (June 2026) backing mRNA-1010 flu vaccine for adults 50-64 and 65+, ahead of the August 5, 2026 PDUFA decision, materially de-risking approval odds
49% reduction in melanoma recurrence risk shown in 5-year data for intismeran autogene (mRNA-4157) + Keytruda, disclosed with Merck at ASCO 2026, with 9 Phase 2/3 trials underway across tumor types
$7.5 billion in cash and investments as of March 31, 2026, funding the company through its 2028 cash-breakeven target without needing to raise equity
10% revenue growth guidance reiterated for 2026 alongside GAAP opex reductions (2026 cash costs guided to ~$4.2 billion), plus EU approvals of mNEXSPIKE and mCOMBRIAX combo flu/COVID vaccine
150% year-to-date stock rally (12th-best S&P 500 performer) signals renewed institutional and retail interest in the non-COVID pipeline, including a new in vivo CAR-T program (mRNA-6007) targeted for 2027

↓ Bear Case

$389 million Q1 2026 revenue and a GAAP net loss of $1.3 billion (EPS -$3.40, missing estimates by ~12.6%), driven partly by an $878 million Arbutus litigation settlement charge
$30-69 range of most current analyst price targets sits well below the ~$78 spot price, implying consensus sees the recent rally as overextended relative to fundamentals
2029 guided timeline before Moderna expects positive EPS, with cash breakeven not targeted until 2028, meaning years of continued cash burn (~$630 million net operating outflow in Q1 2026 alone)
2027 delay flagged by Jefferies for meaningful flu vaccine revenue contribution even if mRNA-1010 is approved in August 2026, given late-year launch timing and slow category uptake versus entrenched flu vaccine incumbents

What Changes the Rating

↑ Catalyst: mRNA-1010 receives full FDA approval on/before the August 5, 2026 PDUFA date with a label broad enough for meaningful 2026-2027 season uptake, intismeran autogene Phase 3 melanoma data reads out positively, and sell-side price targets converge upward toward or above the current trading price

↓ Stop / exit: FDA issues a complete response letter or restricts the mRNA-1010 label below expectations, cash burn accelerates faster than the $4.5-5.0 billion year-end 2026 guidance implies, or intismeran autogene Phase 3 data disappoints versus the Phase 2 49% recurrence-risk benefit

Anton’s personal note

The rating on MRNA is driven by a factor profile that is genuinely mixed — there is no clean narrative here, which is itself a signal worth taking seriously. What I watch on this name is earnings consistency — specifically whether delivery against consensus is stable or deteriorating. That is usually where the rating gets confirmed or challenged before the price reflects it. The scenario that changes my read is a genuine valuation reset — not a small pullback, but a re-rating that reflects the actual risk profile. Until that happens, the risk/reward is not there.

— Anton Ladnyi, CFA

Earnings History

MRNA Earnings History — EPS Surprise Rate 2026
Quarter	EPS Est.	EPS Actual	Surprise
Q1 2026	$-3.88	$-3.40	+12.4% ✓
Q4 2025	$-2.60	$-2.11	+18.9% ✓
Q3 2025	$-2.18	$-0.51	+76.6% ✓
Q2 2025	$-2.97	$-2.13	+28.3% ✓

Quarterly EPS — Estimate vs Actual

Earnings Projections

MRNA Forward EPS Consensus Estimates 2026
Quarter	EPS Est.	YoY EPS	Analysts
Q2 2026	$-2.06	+3.3%	14
Q3 2026	$-1.16	-126.6%	14
Q4 2026	~$-1.19	+43.6%	19
Q1 2027	~$-1.19	+65.0%	19
~ Estimated from annual consensus — not a direct analyst survey

Earnings Projections — Consensus EPS Estimates

MRNA vs. Sector Peers

MRNA Peer Valuation Comparison 2026
Ticker	P/E (TTM)	Fwd P/E	Beta	CVaR-95	Net Margin
MRNA	—	-18.5x	0.94	-25.9%	-1.4%
PFE	18.5x	8.6x	0.31	-8.7%	11.8%
LLY	43.1x	27.2x	0.51	-17.1%	35.0%
JNJ	30.0x	20.3x	0.23	-7.0%	21.8%
ABBV	121.9x	15.4x	0.28	-10.3%	5.8%

DCF Scenario Analysis

Hover each scenario for detail · current price $76.56

▼

Bear Case

$35

-54.3%

Fwd P/E: —

-5% revenue CAGR · 3.5x exit multiple

◆

Base Case

$68

-11.2%

Fwd P/E: —

8% revenue CAGR · 5.5x exit multiple

▲

Bull Case

$120

+56.7%

Fwd P/E: —

22% revenue CAGR · 8x exit multiple

Pairwise Correlation Matrix

0 of 10 peer pairs correlated above 0.60 — diversification benefit within this cluster is structurally limited.

Extended Analysis — Buy, Hold or Sell? Risk Factors. Portfolio Fit.

Is MRNA a buy, hold, or sell?

MRNA carries a valuation grade of N/A.

With a 12% beat rate on recent quarters, earnings predictability has been mixed. The most recent quarter delivered a 12.4% earnings surprise. Analyst estimate revisions are trending downward.

What are MRNA's key risk factors?

With a beta of 0.94, MRNA exhibits a market-neutral risk profile relative to the broad market. The 95th-percentile CVaR of -25.9% on a one-month horizon should inform position sizing directly: at a 10% portfolio weight, this tail event contributes approximately 2.6% of total portfolio loss in the worst 5% of months. Net margins of -1.4% fall below the Healthcare sector average of 18%, suggesting margin pressure. The balance sheet is conservatively leveraged at 18% debt-to-equity.

At 0.25, the put/call ratio skews bullish, with call buyers dominating recent flow. Implied volatility of 73.7% is below realized volatility of 84.1%, potentially making options relatively cheap. Insiders have been net sellers to the tune of $5.4M recently. While routine dispositions are common, the magnitude bears watching. Short interest of 18.1% of float is elevated, reflecting meaningful bearish positioning.

How does MRNA fit in a diversified portfolio?

At typical HENRY portfolio weights — 10–20% of the equity allocation — MRNA carries a beta of 0.94, meaning it amplifies broad market moves proportionally. The appropriate weight is not a function of conviction alone, but of the full covariance structure across all holdings. See the Ledoit-Wolf covariance framework for the methodology behind these calculations.

Among closely correlated names, MRNA shows the strongest co-movement with PFE (0.28), LLY (0.23), ABBV (0.20). Investors seeking diversification should note these correlation dynamics when constructing multi-asset portfolios.

True portfolio risk is a function of the full covariance structure across all holdings — not individual stock metrics. The Portfolio Health Check quantifies this at the portfolio level: it surfaces hidden concentration, marginal CVaR contributions, and the degree to which your overall allocation deviates from an optimal risk-adjusted mandate. The MRNA analysis here is a single node in that larger structure.

For the portfolio construction framework underpinning MRNA’s position sizing and conviction rating — including IPS guardrails, Black-Litterman allocation, and CVaR constraints — see: Investment Policy Statement Framework →

Investor FAQ

Is MRNA a buy or sell in 2026?

Moderna Inc. (MRNA) carries a N/A quantitative rating from A.L. Capital Advisory, derived from Discounted Cash Flow intrinsic value analysis, five-factor model scoring (Value, Quality, Momentum, Volatility, Size), and CVaR tail risk measurement. Current price: $76.56. Composite factor score: 3.0/5. Strongest factor: Volatility (4.0/5). Weakest factor: Quality (2.0/5). Analysis by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory. Full methodology: Portfolio Construction Framework →

What is the average analyst target price for MRNA?

Wall Street consensus target for MRNA: $47.58 (-37.9% downside from the current price of $76.56). The analyst target range spans $22.00 (most bearish) to $79.00 (most bullish). Consensus recommendation: Hold. Note that analyst price targets typically reflect a 12-month forward horizon and are derived from a blend of DCF, comparable-company, and sum-of-the-parts analysis. A.L. Capital Advisory’s quantitative N/A rating is produced independently — from DCF intrinsic value, five-factor model scores, and CVaR tail risk — and does not mechanically track Street consensus. When the two diverge, the divergence itself is informative: it can reflect differences in time horizon, valuation methodology, or the degree to which the current price already discounts the consensus case. Analysis by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory. Full methodology: Monte Carlo Simulation Framework →

How does MRNA score on Value, Quality, Momentum, Volatility, and Size?

MRNA five-factor scores (A.L. Capital Advisory, 1–5 scale): Value 3.0/5 (neutral) — measures current price versus DCF intrinsic range and trailing earnings multiples; Quality 2.0/5 (below average) — captures profitability metrics including return on equity, net margin (ROE: -36.6%) and net margin (-143.6%); Momentum 3.0/5 (neutral) — reflects recent price trajectory and earnings surprise consistency; Volatility 4.0/5 (above average) — inverse measure derived from beta, where lower historical volatility earns a higher score; Size 3.0/5 (neutral) — market capitalisation rank (mega-cap $1T+ scores 5/5). Composite: 3.0/5. Factor scores above 4.0 signal a tailwind in that dimension; below 2.0 signals a material headwind. Analysis by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory. Full methodology: Black-Litterman Model →

What is MRNA's tail risk and CVaR?

The 95th-percentile Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) for MRNA on a one-month horizon is -25.9%. CVaR represents the expected average loss in the worst 5% of monthly outcomes — a more conservative tail risk measure than standard VaR, which only marks the loss threshold. Beta of 0.94 indicates broadly market-level volatility. For reference, a diversified S&P 500 ETF carries a one-month CVaR of roughly -8% to -12% in normal market conditions; individual equity CVaR is higher due to idiosyncratic risk. At the portfolio level, what matters is the marginal CVaR contribution of each holding — not its standalone figure. The A.L. Capital Advisory Portfolio Health Check quantifies each position's marginal tail-risk contribution across your entire holdings. Analysis by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory. Full methodology: CVaR & Tail-Risk Methodology →

What would trigger a rating upgrade or downgrade for MRNA?

Upgrade trigger: Upgrade to Strong Buy on accelerating earnings momentum, improving factor scores, and a wider margin of safety. Downgrade trigger: Continued earnings misses or deteriorating balance sheet quality reducing the Quality factor score below 2.0/5. Analysis by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory. Full methodology: Investment Policy Statement Framework →

Does MRNA consistently beat earnings estimates?

MRNA has beaten consensus EPS estimates in 12% of tracked quarterly periods — indicating inconsistent delivery. The most recent reported quarter beat consensus by 12.4%. Below-average earnings consistency is a primary headwind to the rating and a key watch item in the quantitative model. Earnings surprise magnitude and direction are incorporated into the Momentum and Quality dimensions of the five-factor scoring model. Analysis by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory. Full methodology: DCF Valuation Framework →

How does MRNA contribute to portfolio risk and diversification?

MRNA carries a beta of 0.94 (moderate-volatility relative to the broad equity market). A beta above 1.0 means the position amplifies market moves in both directions at a typical portfolio weight. Strongest peer co-movement: PFE (0.28), LLY (0.23), ABBV (0.20). Holding MRNA alongside these names in the same portfolio increases concentration risk. True portfolio risk is a function of the full covariance structure — a single stock's beta does not reveal its marginal contribution to portfolio tail loss. The A.L. Capital Advisory Portfolio Health Check quantifies concentration risk (Herfindahl-Hirschman Index), pairwise correlations, and marginal CVaR contribution across all your holdings. Analysis by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory. Full methodology: Ledoit-Wolf Covariance Framework →

What quantitative methodology does A.L. Capital Advisory use to analyse MRNA?

A.L. Capital Advisory analyses Moderna Inc. (MRNA) using a four-component quantitative framework grounded in CFA Institute standards. (1) DCF Valuation: projects free cash flows under bear and bull assumptions, discounts at WACC to produce an intrinsic value range with margin-of-safety calculation. (2) Five-Factor Scoring: each equity is scored 1–5 on Value, Quality, Momentum, Volatility, and Size. (3) CVaR Tail Risk: 95th-percentile Conditional Value at Risk from historical simulation of daily returns on a one-month horizon. (4) Earnings Surprise Analysis: quarterly beat rate and magnitude are incorporated into the Momentum and Quality factor scores. The current N/A rating for MRNA is the output of applying this complete framework to current data. Analysis by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory. Full methodology: DCF Valuation Framework → · CVaR & Tail-Risk Methodology →

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Portfolio Health Check

A personalised, human-delivered PDF diagnostic of your portfolio — covariance analysis, concentration risk, and a written mandate recommendation signed by Anton Ladnyi.

Valuation Framework

DCF Valuation Framework

Why terminal value drives 60–80% of equity intrinsic value — the mechanics behind P/E, EV/EBITDA, and how a 1% WACC shift moves high-multiple tech stocks ~25%.

Portfolio Framework

Portfolio Construction Under Parameter Uncertainty

A Bayesian Framework for Strategic Asset Allocation — how tail risk, estimation error, and parameter uncertainty shape optimal portfolio design.

Allocation Framework

Black-Litterman Model

The Bayesian allocation model from Goldman Sachs — how equilibrium market returns are combined with explicit investor views to produce stable, diversified portfolios.

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Anton Ladnyi, CFA

Founder & Portfolio Architect — A.L. Capital Advisory

Ex-Goldman Sachs Equity Research · Ex-J.P. Morgan Wealth Management · CFA Charterholder

CFA Charter ↗ CFA L1 ↗ CFA L2 ↗ CFA L3 ↗ LinkedIn ↗ X ↗

Legal Disclaimer & Important Notices

This analysis is produced using a systematic quantitative framework applied to market data and does not constitute investment advice. Prose commentary is AI-assisted and generated from structured quantitative inputs. All data and metrics are as of 2026-07-09 and are point-in-time estimates subject to revision without notice. CVaR figures are based on historical simulation and do not guarantee future outcomes. DCF ranges and upgrade/downgrade triggers are forward-looking statements based on current assumptions and may not materialise. Past performance does not guarantee future results. This analysis does not account for individual circumstances, tax position, or investment objectives — consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. This content is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute regulated investment advice under MiFID II or FCA guidelines. This content is not intended for US persons or residents of jurisdictions where its distribution would be contrary to local law or regulation. This service is not directed at residents of Finland, Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Iceland, or Poland. The author may hold long or short positions in securities mentioned in this analysis. Nothing on this page represents a solicitation to buy or sell any security. A.L. Capital Advisory is an independent private advisory practice and is not affiliated with Moderna Inc.