Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) — Quantitative Forecast & Factor Scores

JNJ currently carries a valuation grade of Buy. The trailing P/E of 21.5 is roughly in line with the Healthcare sector median of 22.0x. Our discounted cash flow model suggests an intrinsic range of $186–$350, implying a +13% margin of safety at the current price of $237.28.

With a beta of 0.33, JNJ exhibits a low-volatility risk profile relative to the broad market. Net margins of 28.5% are significantly above the Healthcare average of 18%, reflecting strong pricing power. Return on equity of 35.0% indicates highly efficient capital allocation. The balance sheet is conservatively leveraged at 60% debt-to-equity.

The company has beaten estimates in 67% of recent quarters, a moderate hit rate. The most recent quarter delivered a +15.2% earnings surprise. Analyst estimate revisions are trending accelerating.

Insiders have been net sellers to the tune of $40,698,372 recently. While routine dispositions are common, the magnitude bears watching. Short interest is low at 1.0% of float, suggesting limited bearish conviction.

The options market shows a put/call ratio of 1.93, reflecting a notably bearish skew in derivative positioning. Implied volatility of 31.3% exceeds realized volatility of 17.4% by 14 points, suggesting options are pricing in elevated risk.

Among closely correlated names, JNJ shows the strongest co-movement with MRK (0.48), BMY (0.44), ABBV (0.42). Investors seeking diversification should note these correlation dynamics when constructing multi-asset portfolios.