Is AZN a buy, hold, or sell?
AZN carries a valuation grade of Strong Buy. The trailing P/E of 27.0 sits 23% above the Healthcare sector median of 22.0x — a premium that demands sustained earnings delivery. Our discounted cash flow model produces an intrinsic range of $178–$277 — implying a +27% margin of safety at the current price of $178.96. The width of the DCF range reflects genuine uncertainty in the terminal growth rate assumption: the correct framework is a probability-weighted distribution over scenarios, not a single point estimate. See the DCF valuation framework for full methodology.
With a 3% beat rate on recent quarters, earnings predictability has been mixed. The most recent quarter delivered a 1.4% earnings surprise. Analyst estimate revisions are trending upward.
What are AZN's key risk factors?
With a beta of 0.21, AZN exhibits a low-volatility risk profile relative to the broad market. The 95th-percentile CVaR of -11.0% on a one-month horizon should inform position sizing directly: at a 10% portfolio weight, this tail event contributes approximately 1.1% of total portfolio loss in the worst 5% of months. Net margins stand at 17.2%. Return on equity of 23.5% suggests solid capital efficiency. The balance sheet is conservatively leveraged at 72% debt-to-equity.
The options market shows a put/call ratio of 3.44, reflecting a notably bearish skew in derivative positioning. Implied volatility of 1.2% is below realized volatility of 27.3%, potentially making options relatively cheap. Short interest is low at 0.1% of float, suggesting limited bearish conviction.
How does AZN fit in a diversified portfolio?
At typical HENRY portfolio weights — 10–20% of the equity allocation — AZN carries a beta of 0.21, meaning it amplifies broad market moves proportionally. The appropriate weight is not a function of conviction alone, but of the full covariance structure across all holdings. See the Ledoit-Wolf covariance framework for the methodology behind these calculations.
Among closely correlated names, AZN shows the strongest co-movement with PFE (0.51), ABBV (0.40), JNJ (0.39). Investors seeking diversification should note these correlation dynamics when constructing multi-asset portfolios.
True portfolio risk is a function of the full covariance structure across all holdings — not individual stock metrics. The Portfolio Health Check quantifies this at the portfolio level: it surfaces hidden concentration, marginal CVaR contributions, and the degree to which your overall allocation deviates from an optimal risk-adjusted mandate. The AZN analysis here is a single node in that larger structure.
For the portfolio construction framework underpinning AZN’s position sizing and conviction rating — including IPS guardrails, Black-Litterman allocation, and CVaR constraints — see: Investment Policy Statement Framework →
