By Anton Ladnyi, CFA · ex-Goldman Sachs · ex-J.P. MorganPublished Updated
IQMX — IQM trades near $10.70 (~$5.1B market cap) on H1 2026 revenue of EUR8.9M and an order backlog that grew from EUR69.1M to over EUR102.1M in five weeks; EUR309.4M cash gives a management-guided runway well into Q2 2028, but coverage is limited to a single Neutral rating (Rothschild & Co Redburn, $12.88 target) and two separate resale-share filings in early August signal near-term dilution overhang.
Composite rating with analyst overlay — not individualized investment advice.
How Is This Rating Calculated?
A.L. Capital Advisory Equity Composite model · calculated 2026-08-26. Four calculation steps, in order — steps 1, 2 and 4 are rules-based; step 3 is a disclosed qualitative analyst overlay mapped to a fixed numerical scale:
1. Margin of safety → quantitative grade
IQMX's margin of safety is -11.92% (base case $10 vs. price $11.00). Margin of safety here is defined as (fair value − price) / fair value — this is the formula the quant grade below is actually assigned from. It is not the same figure as the gauge's "Upside to Base" pill above, which uses (fair value − price) / price and will read a larger number for the same inputs. The standalone EPS-based DCF is not shown as a margin-of-safety figure here because it is not economically meaningful for IQMX at the current earnings level: EPS is negative ($-0.84), so an EPS-based DCF cannot produce a meaningful intrinsic value — the rating below is based on analyst consensus only, where available — the blended figure above is weighted 100% to analyst consensus for this reason, not by the standard coverage-depth tier.
Blended valuation margin-of-safety bands
Margin of safety
Quant grade
Score
MOS > 20.00%
Strong Buy
5.0
10.00% < MOS ≤ 20.00%
Buy
4.0
−10.00% < MOS ≤ 10.00%
Hold
3.0
−20.00% < MOS ≤ −10.00%
Reduce
2.0
MOS ≤ −20.00%
Avoid
1.0
2. Auto fundamental penalty
No fundamental red flags triggered · total: +0.0
Automatic fundamental-penalty rules
Rule
Threshold
Penalty
P/E extreme
Forward (or trailing) P/E > 80x
−1.0
P/E elevated
Forward (or trailing) P/E 50–80x
−0.5
Earnings deterioration, significant
Earnings growth < −20%
−1.0
Earnings deterioration, mild
Earnings growth −5% to −20%
−0.5
Stagnant top-line
Revenue growth < 3%
−0.5
Unsustainable dividend
Payout ratio > 120%
−0.5
Rules are cumulative (multiple can fire on the same ticker) and purely mechanical — no analyst judgment is involved in step 2.
3. Thesis conviction modifier
Analyst conviction: low · modifier: -0.60. This is a qualitative analyst judgment on the written thesis, mapped to a fixed numeric modifier below — it is not algorithmically derived from a measurable indicator.
Analyst-conviction modifier scale
Conviction level
Modifier
Very High
+1.00
High
+0.60
Medium
+0.00
Low
-0.60
Very Low
-1.00
General guidance for the assigning analyst (not an algorithmic rule — conviction is assigned by editorial judgment on the written thesis, not computed): Very High/High — multiple thesis pillars confirmed by the most recent reported quarter, no unresolved red flags. Medium — mixed evidence, or a thesis not yet differentiated enough to lean either direction. Low/Very Low — one or more thesis pillars deteriorating, or a material data-quality concern. Assigned and reviewed each time the underlying thesis is updated (see the thesis "last updated" date on this page).
Rating sensitivity: without the -0.60 analyst-conviction overlay, IQMX would score 2.00 and carry a Reduce rating instead of Avoid. The overlay is the deciding factor between these two ratings.
This is the exact formula the model runs — not a post-hoc explanation. Source: composite_grade.py, A.L. Capital Advisory Equity Composite.
IQMX Price Target & Rating
IQMX's composite rating is Avoid (quantitative grade: Reduce), with elevated downside risk (CVaR -27.2%), and quality metrics (net margin -3%). IQM Quantum Computers Oyj (IQMX) trades at $11.00 with a Avoid composite rating and a quantitative grade of Reduce: net margins of -2.8%, a blended fair-value range of $10–$10 suggesting a -12% margin of safety.
What Is IQMX's DCF Intrinsic Value and Blended Fair Value Range?
IQMX's blended fair-value range is $10–$10 (base case $10), against a current price of $11.00.
IQMX blended fair-value gauge — bear case $10, base case $10, bull case $10, current price $11.00.
Price & DCF data as of
DCF Assumptions
Two-stage earnings-based DCF on forward EPS of $-0.84 (Yahoo Finance forwardEps: provider-aggregated next-fiscal-year consensus estimate, not a fixed trailing-12-month window): explicit 5-year forecast at the stage-1 growth rate below, discounted at the CAPM cost of equity, plus a Gordon Growth terminal value at the terminal growth rate, also discounted at the CAPM cost of equity. This model discounts projected EPS — an equity-level metric — directly, not free cash flow, so the cost of equity is the theoretically correct discount rate; this is not a debt-weighted WACC (no cost of debt or capital-structure weighting is applied). Source: A.L. Capital Advisory DCF engine (api.py).
DCF assumptions by scenario
Input
Bear
Base
Bull
Stage-1 (near-term) growth
6.30%
14.00%
21.00%
Terminal growth
3.00%
3.00%
3.00%
CAPM cost of equity (discount rate)
10.97%
10.16%
9.35%
Forecast horizon
5 years
5 years
5 years
CAPM cost of equity = risk-free rate (4.66%, a live 10-year Treasury yield (Yahoo Finance ^TNX) fetched at page-generation time, 2026-08-26T16:04:43+00:00 UTC) + beta (1.00) × 5.5% equity risk premium, floored at 6% and capped at 18%. Stage-1 growth is a sector-level base rate (bear/bull apply 0.45x/1.50x multipliers); terminal growth is held constant across scenarios. Bear/bull cost of equity applies a ±8% relative adjustment to the base rate, clamped to the same 6–18% band.
The DCF output above is not the final intrinsic value shown elsewhere on this page. It is blended with the Wall Street analyst consensus price target to avoid extreme single-model divergence, weighted by analyst coverage depth (1 analyst covering this stock → 0.00% DCF / 100.00% consensus). The blended figure is the intrinsic value used for margin-of-safety and the composite rating.
DCF-to-intrinsic-value blend by scenario
Scenario
Pure DCF value
Analyst target used
Blended intrinsic value (displayed)
Bear
$0.00
$9.83
$9.83
Base
$0.00
$9.83
$9.83
Bull
$0.00
$9.83
$9.83
Blended value = (0.00% × pure DCF) + (100.00% × analyst target). Bear/bull scenarios blend against the analyst low/high target rather than the mean.
Analyst-coverage-to-consensus-weight tiers
Analyst coverage
Weight
0–1 analysts
0.00% consensus / 100.00% DCF
2–4 analysts
40.00% consensus / 60.00% DCF
5–19 analysts
65.00% consensus / 35.00% DCF
20+ analysts
75.00% consensus / 25.00% DCF
The consensus weight is a fixed step function of analyst coverage depth (above), not adjusted for target age, dispersion, or outliers — the mean/low/high analyst targets are used as reported by the data provider with no filtering.
DCF applicability gate triggered: the pure DCF figures in the table above are shown for transparency only and are not economically meaningful — EPS is negative ($-0.84), so an EPS-based DCF cannot produce a meaningful intrinsic value — the rating below is based on analyst consensus only, where available. The blend weight above is therefore forced to 100% analyst consensus regardless of the standard coverage-depth tier.
Key Takeaways
Valuation: Avoid composite rating; Reduce quantitative grade — blended fair-value range $10–$10 implies -12% margin of safety
Risk: CVaR -27.2% (95th percentile, 1-month) indicates high tail exposure
Strengths: -3% net margin dominate the factor profile
Catalyst: Q3 2026 earnings (~early November 2026) — first read on whether the EUR102M+ order backlog begins converting to recognized revenue and whether the two August resale filings translate into actual selling pressure.
Bear catalyst: FY2026 revenue or order-intake guidance is cut, the EUR309.4M cash balance draws down faster than the 'well into Q2 2028' guidance implies, or the resale-registered shares are sold in a way that visibly pressures the float.
IQMX — Quantitative SnapshotAugust 2026
RatingAvoid
Price$11.00
Why AvoidTrading at a significant premium to intrinsic value — DCF and analyst consensus suggest limited margin of safety; valuation risk outweighs near-term upside
Main riskHigh tail risk — CVaR -27.2% on a one-month horizon
Tail riskCVaR -27.2% over one month at the 95th percentile
Blended fair-value range$10–$10 blended fair-value range; margin of safety -12%
Best useCore mid-cap Technology holding — not a source of diversified sector exposure
Next watchEarnings delivery and valuation re-rating catalysts
How Does IQMX Score on the Five-Factor Quantitative Model?
IQMX's composite five-factor score is 2.9/5, led by Value (3.0/5) and weakest on Size (2.5/5).
IQMX five-factor radar — Value 3.0, Quality 3.0, Momentum 3.0, Volatility 3.0, Size 2.5 (out of 5).
Value
3.0 / 5
Quality
3.0 / 5
Momentum
3.0 / 5
Volatility
3.0 / 5
Size
2.5 / 5
IQMX Five-Factor Quantitative Scores
Factor
Score
Value
3.0 / 5
Quality
3.0 / 5
Momentum
3.0 / 5
Volatility
3.0 / 5
Size
2.5 / 5
What Is IQMX's AI-Era Durability and Disruption Risk?
Moderate
IQMX's AI-Era Durability Score is 2.5/5 (Moderate) on a 1-5 scale where higher is better: 5 (AI Tailwind) means growth is structurally underwritten by a durable megatrend; 1 (Multiple-Dependent) means the current valuation relies on cyclical multiple expansion rather than durable growth. A.L. Capital Advisory's assessment of how much of IQM Quantum Computers Oyj's current growth and margin profile is underwritten by a durable structural tailwind versus cyclical or generic multiple expansion. Components: thematic tailwind 1.0/2.0, revenue growth durability 1.5/1.5, margin/quality trend 0.0/1.0, core moat 0.0/0.5. IQMX sits in a sector (Technology) thematically adjacent to A.L. Capital Advisory's covered megatrends, though it is not a direct constituent of a named thematic report. Analysis by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory.
Key Metrics
IQMX Key Metrics — IQM Quantum Computers Oyj 2026
Metric
Value
Current Price
$11.00
Forward P/E
-13.0x
P/S Ratio
152.6
EV/EBITDA
-21.1
Net Margin
-2.8%
Debt/Equity
15.7%
CVaR (95%, 1M)
-27.2%
Market Cap
$5.2B
1-Month CVaR Methodology
The 1M CVaR-95 figure shown in Key Metrics, the peer comparison table and this page's hero card is computed as follows:
Lookback: most recent 1 year of daily prices.
Return input: daily log returns on dividend/split-adjusted close prices.
Confidence level: 95% (worst 5% of the resulting rolling-month observations).
Quantile convention: floor-based cutoff — the worst floor(N × 0.05) rolling-month observations (minimum 1), not a rounded or interpolated percentile.
CVaR: arithmetic mean of that worst-5% tail, expressed as a percentage.
Corporate actions: reflected via adjusted-close pricing (dividends and splits are accounted for).
1M CVaR-95 by lookback window
Method
1M CVaR-95
Trailing 1-year historical
-27.2%
Trailing 3-year historical
-24.1%
Trailing 5-year historical
-24.1%
The 1-year figure is what appears elsewhere on this page. Because it is built from overlapping 21-day windows over a single year, it reflects roughly the last ~11 non-independent tail events and is sensitive to the specific market regime of that year — treat it as a trailing-window historical estimate, not a structurally stable long-run risk parameter. The 3- and 5-year figures use the same methodology over longer, more regime-diverse histories.
This is a separate calculation from the 1-Day VaR/CVaR shown in the Tail Risk Profile chart below, which uses raw (non-overlapping) daily returns rather than rolling monthly sums — see that chart's own methodology note for the daily-horizon convention.
Tail Risk Profile
Historical Simulation · Daily Log Returns
IQMX — Daily Return Distribution
IQM Quantum Computers Oyj · 251 trading days · CVaR illustrated on real data
Aug 2025 – Aug 2026
Daily log returns
95%
-3.17%
1-Day VaR · 95%
95th-percentile loss threshold
-6.24%
1-Day CVaR · 95%
Avg loss in tail
13
Days in tail
of 251 sessions
251
Daily returns
Aug 2025 – Aug 2026
Historical VaR uses the nearest-rank convention: the worst observation within the tail (empirical (1−confidence) fraction of trading days). Historical CVaR is the arithmetic mean of all observations at or below that VaR threshold — so VaR is always included inside the CVaR tail, not one observation outside it.
Anton Ladnyi, CFA · A.L. Capital AdvisoryUpdated 2026-08-26
Rating Rationale
IQMX — IQM trades near $10.70 (~$5.1B market cap) on H1 2026 revenue of EUR8.9M and an order backlog that grew from EUR69.1M to over EUR102.1M in five weeks; EUR309.4M cash gives a management-guided runway well into Q2 2028, but coverage is limited to a single Neutral rating (Rothschild & Co Redburn, $12.88 target) and two separate resale-share filings in early August signal near-term dilution overhang.
Investment Thesis
↑ Bull Case
Order backlog grew from EUR69.1M at June 30 to over EUR102.1M by Aug 3, 2026 — a EUR33M increase in five weeks — while FY2026 guidance was reaffirmed at EUR42-47M revenue and EUR65-75M order intake.
26 systems sold and 17 delivered globally, including the first major US government delivery (Oak Ridge National Laboratory), plus expansion into Japan and Spain, show a real, diversified hardware-delivery track record rather than a pre-revenue roadmap story.
EUR309.4M cash at listing with management guidance of runway 'well into Q2 2028' (roughly 7-8 quarters from this writing) is the most specific forward-looking runway commitment of any of the five quantum pure-plays on this page — the others disclose a cash balance but not an explicit runway date.
As the first European quantum computing company listed on a major US exchange, IQM offers geographic/customer diversification (Deutsche Bahn, Bell Canada MOU) that the largely US-centric peer set doesn't provide.
↓ Bear Case
Coverage is limited to a single sell-side rating — Rothschild & Co Redburn initiated Neutral with a $12.88 target on July 27, 2026 — meaning there is effectively no consensus price target to triangulate against, unlike the other four quantum names on this page.
Two separate resale-share filings in early August 2026 (4.3M and 8.62M ordinary shares) for existing holders signal potential insider/PIPE-related selling pressure shortly after the SPAC close — a dilution overhang the thin analyst coverage hasn't yet priced through.
H1 2026 operating loss of EUR60.5M against EUR8.9M revenue means the company is burning roughly 7x its revenue in operating losses — even against the disclosed 'well into Q2 2028' runway guidance, that burn rate leaves little room for a guidance miss before the runway compresses.
IQM disclosed 109 risk factors in its most recent filing, concentrated in the Finance & Corporate category — a SPAC-merger-standard disclosure, but one that underscores how new and largely untested the public-company financial control environment still is.
What Changes the Rating
↑Catalyst:Order backlog crosses EUR120M, FY2026 revenue guidance is reaffirmed or raised at Q3, and a second sell-side analyst initiates coverage — breaking the single-analyst coverage gap.
↓Model downgrade conditions:FY2026 revenue or order-intake guidance is cut, the EUR309.4M cash balance draws down faster than the 'well into Q2 2028' guidance implies, or the resale-registered shares are sold in a way that visibly pressures the float.
Anton’s personal note
The rating on IQMX is driven by a factor profile that is genuinely mixed — there is no clean narrative here, which is itself a signal worth taking seriously. What I watch on this name is earnings consistency — specifically whether delivery against consensus is stable or deteriorating. That is usually where the rating gets confirmed or challenged before the price reflects it. The scenario that changes my read is a genuine valuation reset — not a small pullback, but a re-rating that reflects the actual risk profile. Until that happens, the risk/reward is not there.
— Anton Ladnyi, CFA
Earnings Projections
IQMX Forward EPS Consensus Estimates 2026
Quarter
EPS Est.
YoY EPS
Analysts
Q1 2027
~$-0.18
—
1
Q2 2027
~$-0.18
—
1
~ Estimated from annual consensus — not a direct analyst survey
What Are Wall Street's EPS Estimates for IQMX?
Wall Street's next-quarter consensus EPS estimate for IQMX is $0.00.
IQMX consensus EPS estimates, next quarter $0.00, 4 quarters shown.
Composite rating: Avoid · Quantitative grade: Reduce • CVaR from one-year daily history · historical simulation
Editorial Analyst Scenarios
Revenue growth × exit multiple (editorial, not mechanically reproducible from disclosed inputs) · hover each scenario for detail · current price $11.00
▼
Bear Case
$6
-45.5%
Implied NTM P/E: — (target ÷ next-4Q consensus EPS — distinct from the exit multiple below, which is applied to a later-year EPS estimate)
10% revenue CAGR · 80x Rev exit multiple
◆
Base Case
$13
+18.2%
Implied NTM P/E: — (target ÷ next-4Q consensus EPS — distinct from the exit multiple below, which is applied to a later-year EPS estimate)
50% revenue CAGR · 150x Rev exit multiple
▲
Bull Case
$20
+81.8%
Implied NTM P/E: — (target ÷ next-4Q consensus EPS — distinct from the exit multiple below, which is applied to a later-year EPS estimate)
100% revenue CAGR · 250x Rev exit multiple
How Correlated Is IQMX With Its Sector Peers?
3 of 10 peer pairs correlated above 0.60, indicating meaningful historical diversification across the selected names, although all remain exposed to common equity, sector and macro factors.
IQMX pairwise correlation heatmap across 5 peers — 3 of 10 pairs above 0.60.
3 of 10 peer pairs correlated above 0.60, indicating meaningful historical diversification across the selected names, although all remain exposed to common equity, sector and macro factors.
Extended Analysis — Buy, Hold or Sell? Risk Factors. Portfolio Fit.
Is IQMX a buy, hold, or sell?
IQMX carries a quantitative grade of Reduce. Our two-stage, EPS-based DCF model produces a pure model range of $0–$0. After blending with Street consensus targets, the displayed fair-value range is $10–$10 — implying a -12% margin of safety vs. blended base fair value at the current price of $11.00. The width of the range reflects genuine uncertainty in the terminal growth rate assumption: the correct framework is a probability-weighted distribution over scenarios, not a single point estimate. See the DCF valuation framework for full methodology.
Analyst estimate revisions are trending upward.
What are IQMX's key risk factors?
The 95th-percentile CVaR of -27.2% on a one-month horizon should inform position sizing directly: at a 10% portfolio weight, this standalone tail outcome corresponds to approximately 2.7% of portfolio value before accounting for correlations with other holdings — not a marginal portfolio CVaR contribution, which depends on the full covariance structure. Net margins of -2.8% fall below the Technology sector average of 22%, suggesting margin pressure. The balance sheet is conservatively leveraged at 16% debt-to-equity.
How does IQMX fit in a diversified portfolio?
The appropriate weight for IQMX within a portfolio is not a function of conviction alone, but of the full covariance structure across all holdings. See the Ledoit-Wolf covariance framework for the methodology behind these calculations.
Among closely correlated names, IQMX shows the strongest co-movement with RGTI (0.20), QBTS (0.18), IONQ (0.17). Investors seeking diversification should note these correlation dynamics when constructing multi-asset portfolios.
True portfolio risk is a function of the full covariance structure across all holdings — not individual stock metrics. The Portfolio Health Check quantifies this at the portfolio level: it surfaces hidden concentration, marginal CVaR contributions, and the degree to which your overall allocation deviates from an optimal risk-adjusted mandate. The IQMX analysis here is a single node in that larger structure.
For the portfolio construction framework underpinning IQMX’s position sizing and conviction rating — including IPS guardrails, Black-Litterman allocation, and CVaR constraints — see: Investment Policy Statement Framework →
Investor FAQ
What is IQMX's AI-Era Durability & Disruption Risk Score?
IQMX's AI-Era Durability Score is 2.5/5 (Moderate) on a 1-5 scale where higher is better: 5 (AI Tailwind) means growth is structurally underwritten by a durable megatrend; 1 (Multiple-Dependent) means the current valuation relies on cyclical multiple expansion rather than durable growth. A.L. Capital Advisory's assessment of how much of IQM Quantum Computers Oyj's current growth and margin profile is underwritten by a durable structural tailwind versus cyclical or generic multiple expansion. Components: thematic tailwind 1.0/2.0, revenue growth durability 1.5/1.5, margin/quality trend 0.0/1.0, core moat 0.0/0.5. IQMX sits in a sector (Technology) thematically adjacent to A.L. Capital Advisory's covered megatrends, though it is not a direct constituent of a named thematic report. Analysis by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory.
What is IQMX's intrinsic value and DCF price target?
A.L. Capital Advisory's model produces a blended fair-value range (0% pure DCF, 100% analyst consensus) of $10 (bear case) to $10 (bull case) for IQM Quantum Computers Oyj (IQMX). At $11.00, the margin of safety vs. blended base case is -12% (positive = discount to fair value; negative = premium). The bear-to-bull spread reflects genuine sensitivity to the two dominant DCF inputs: the terminal growth rate and the CAPM cost of equity (this model discounts EPS, an equity-level metric, so the cost of equity rather than a debt-weighted WACC is the applicable discount rate). Terminal value typically accounts for 60-80% of total intrinsic value in most equity DCF models, which is why a range is more analytically sound than a point estimate. The central analytical question is not what the DCF outputs as a single number but which growth trajectory the current market price already discounts. All DCF analysis follows CFA Institute standards and is conducted by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory. Full methodology: DCF Valuation Framework →
Is IQMX a buy or sell in 2026?
IQM Quantum Computers Oyj (IQMX) carries a Avoid composite rating from A.L. Capital Advisory, consisting of a Reduce quantitative grade plus an analyst-conviction overlay. The quantitative grade is set by margin-of-safety band; the overlay is an additive analyst adjustment disclosed in the page's rating-calculation breakdown. Five-factor model scoring (Value, Quality, Momentum, Volatility, Size) and CVaR tail-risk measurement are shown separately on the page and are not inputs to this specific composite-rating formula. At $11.00, the margin of safety vs. blended base fair value is -12% (blended fair-value range: $10 bear – $10 bull). That places the current price in the Premium zone of A.L. Capital Advisory's DCF framework, which sets the quantitative grade component before the analyst-conviction overlay is applied. Composite factor score: 2.9/5. Strongest factor: Value (3.0/5). Weakest factor: Size (2.5/5). Analysis by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory. Full methodology: Rating Methodology (this page) →
What is the average analyst target price for IQMX?
Wall Street consensus target for IQMX: $9.83 (-10.6% downside from the current price of $11.00). The analyst target range spans $9.83 (most bearish) to $9.83 (most bullish). Consensus recommendation: None. Note that analyst price targets typically reflect a 12-month forward horizon and are derived from a blend of DCF, comparable-company, and sum-of-the-parts analysis. A.L. Capital Advisory's Avoid composite rating is calculated from the blended margin-of-safety grade, applicable automatic fundamental penalties, and a disclosed qualitative analyst-conviction overlay — not from five-factor scores or CVaR, which are supporting diagnostics shown elsewhere on this page. The displayed blended fair value combines the standalone DCF output with Street consensus for well-covered names (see the DCF Assumptions box for the exact blend weight), so it does not track Street consensus mechanically, but it is not fully independent of it either. When the composite rating and the Street consensus recommendation diverge, the divergence itself is informative: it can reflect differences in time horizon, valuation methodology, or the degree to which the current price already discounts the consensus case. Analysis by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory. Full methodology: Data & Sources (this page) →
How does IQMX score on Value, Quality, Momentum, Volatility, and Size?
IQMX five-factor scores (A.L. Capital Advisory, 1–5 scale): Value 3.0/5 (neutral) — measures the trailing P/E multiple versus the sector median (not the DCF or blended fair-value range, which are separate metrics on this page); Quality 3.0/5 (neutral) — captures profitability metrics including return on equity and net margin (-277.2%) — sustained above-peer ROE and margins are the model's proxy for economic moat and pricing power; Momentum 3.0/5 (neutral) — reflects recent price trajectory and earnings surprise consistency; Volatility 3.0/5 (neutral) — inverse measure derived from beta, where lower historical volatility earns a higher score; Size 2.5/5 (neutral) — market capitalisation rank (mega-cap $1T+ scores 5/5). Composite: 2.9/5. Factor scores above 4.0 signal a tailwind in that dimension; below 2.0 signals a material headwind. Analysis by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory.
What is IQMX's tail risk and CVaR?
The 95th-percentile Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) for IQMX on a one-month horizon is -27.2%. CVaR represents the expected average loss in the worst 5% of monthly outcomes — a more conservative tail risk measure than standard VaR, which only marks the loss threshold. For reference, a diversified S&P 500 ETF carries a one-month CVaR of roughly -8% to -12% in normal market conditions; individual equity CVaR is higher due to idiosyncratic risk. At the portfolio level, what matters is the marginal CVaR contribution of each holding — not its standalone figure. The A.L. Capital Advisory Portfolio Health Check quantifies each position's marginal tail-risk contribution across your entire holdings. Analysis by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory. Full methodology: CVaR & Tail-Risk Methodology →
What would trigger a rating upgrade or downgrade for IQMX?
Upgrade trigger: Upgrade to Strong Buy on accelerating earnings momentum, improving factor scores, and a wider margin of safety. Downgrade trigger: Continued earnings misses or deteriorating balance sheet quality reducing the Quality factor score below 2.0/5. These triggers are reassessed each time the underlying fundamentals, price, or earnings data refresh — the current Avoid rating is not held on a fixed review calendar. Analysis by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory. Full methodology: Rating Methodology (this page) →
What quantitative methodology does A.L. Capital Advisory use to analyse IQMX?
A.L. Capital Advisory analyses IQM Quantum Computers Oyj (IQMX) using a four-part quantitative research framework grounded in CFA Institute standards (not all four parts feed the composite rating formula directly — see below). (1) DCF Valuation: a two-stage earnings-based DCF that projects EPS (not free cash flow) under bear and bull assumptions, discounts at the CAPM cost of equity (the applicable rate for an equity-level metric like EPS, not a debt-weighted WACC) to produce an intrinsic value range with margin-of-safety calculation. (2) Five-Factor Scoring: each equity is scored 1–5 on Value, Quality, Momentum, Volatility, and Size. (3) CVaR Tail Risk: 95th-percentile Conditional Value at Risk from historical simulation of daily returns on a one-month horizon. (4) Earnings Surprise Analysis: quarterly beat rate and magnitude, shown for context alongside the factor scores. The current Avoid composite rating for IQMX is calculated separately from this broader framework: it consists of a Reduce quantitative grade, any automatic fundamental penalty, and a disclosed qualitative analyst-conviction overlay — see this page's Rating Methodology section for the exact formula. Five-factor scoring, CVaR and earnings surprise analysis below are supporting research diagnostics shown separately on this page; they are not direct numerical inputs into this specific composite-rating calculation. Analysis by Anton Ladnyi, CFA (ex-Goldman Sachs, ex-J.P. Morgan) · A.L. Capital Advisory. Full methodology: DCF Valuation Framework → · CVaR & Tail-Risk Methodology →
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Retrieved 2026-08-26T16:04:43+00:00 (UTC); see per-quarter analyst counts in Earnings Forecast; individual target ages/dates are not disclosed by the data provider
Most recent exchange settlement date on file with the data provider (exact settlement date not exposed by the provider's API; retrieved 2026-08-26T16:04:43+00:00 UTC)
[6] DCF valuation, five-factor model & composite rating
Calculated 2026-08-26T16:04:43+00:00 (UTC); see Rating Methodology above for the exact formula
Hand-authored thesis commentary (bull/bear case, catalysts, AI-Era Durability Score narrative) is cross-checked against the company's own investor-relations disclosures at time of writing; figures presented as A.L. Capital Advisory estimates are proprietary forecasts, not company guidance, unless explicitly attributed to the issuer.
Market-session status above is derived from the page's UTC generation time using standard NYSE hours (9:30am–4:00pm ET regular session); it does not account for US market holidays and may be inaccurate on those dates.
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This analysis is produced using a systematic quantitative framework applied to market data and does not constitute investment advice. Prose commentary is AI-assisted and generated from structured quantitative inputs. All data and metrics are as of 2026-08-26 and are point-in-time estimates subject to revision without notice. CVaR figures are based on historical simulation and do not guarantee future outcomes. DCF ranges and upgrade/downgrade triggers are forward-looking statements based on current assumptions and may not materialise. Past performance does not guarantee future results. This analysis does not account for individual circumstances, tax position, or investment objectives — consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. This content is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute regulated investment advice under MiFID II or FCA guidelines. This content is not intended for US persons or residents of jurisdictions where its distribution would be contrary to local law or regulation. This service is not directed at residents of Finland, Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Iceland, or Poland. The author may hold long or short positions in securities mentioned in this analysis. Nothing on this page represents a solicitation to buy or sell any security. A.L. Capital Advisory is an independent private advisory practice and is not affiliated with IQM Quantum Computers Oyj.
CFA Portfolio Advisory — IQMX
Discuss this analysis, position sizing, or your full portfolio mandate with Anton Ladnyi, CFA.
