ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) — Quantitative Forecast & Factor Scores
ASML screens as high-quality and fully priced — upside depends on sustained earnings execution at current multiples.
ASML's quantitative grade is Hold, with moderate downside risk (CVaR -12.6%), and quality metrics (net margin 29%, ROE 50%). ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) trades at $1,302.47 with a valuation grade of Hold: a trailing P/E of 45.7x at a 43% premium to sector median, net margins of 29.4%, a DCF-implied intrinsic range of $752–$1,657 suggesting a -8% margin of safety, beta 1.43 (moderate risk profile).
Key Takeaways
- Valuation: Hold grade — P/E 45.7x — DCF range $752–$1,657 implies -8% margin of safety
- Risk: CVaR -12.6% (95th percentile, 1-month) indicates moderate tail exposure; beta of 1.43 amplifies broad market moves in both directions
- Strengths: Quality 5.0/5, Size 4.5/5, 29% net margin, 50% ROE dominate the factor profile
- Watch: Value score of 2.0/5 signals premium pricing
Quantitative Factor Profile
Key Metrics
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Current Price | $1,302.47 |
| P/E Ratio (TTM) | 45.7x |
| Forward P/E | 30.1x |
| P/S Ratio | 15.7 |
| EV/EBITDA | 40.2 |
| Beta | 1.43 |
| Net Margin | 29.4% |
| ROE | 50.5% |
| Debt/Equity | 23.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.68% |
| CVaR (95%, 1M) | -12.6% |
| Market Cap | $511.4B |
Earnings History
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $7.55 | $7.34 | -2.7% ✗ |
| Q3 2025 | $5.37 | $5.49 | +2.1% ✓ |
| Q2 2025 | $5.25 | $5.90 | +12.4% ✓ |
| Q1 2025 | $5.79 | $6.00 | +3.7% ✓ |
ASML vs. Sector Peers
| Ticker | P/E (TTM) | Beta | CVaR-95 | Net Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASML | 45.7x | 1.43 | -12.6% | 29.4% |
| NVDA | 34.1x | 2.38 | -11.2% | 55.6% |
| AMD | 77.4x | 2.02 | -21.8% | 12.5% |
| TSM | 31.5x | 1.28 | -9.6% | 45.1% |
| AVGO | 58.5x | 1.26 | -13.2% | 36.6% |
ASML screens as an exceptional-quality business, at a fully-priced valuation with limited margin of safety. Three of the last four quarters beat consensus — execution is solid.
ASML trades at 45.7x trailing earnings — 43% above the Technology sector median of 32.0x. This combination — premium multiple, decelerating outperformance — is historically where risk/reward becomes asymmetric. Not a reason to sell; a reason to size carefully.
ASML is not a name I am actively adding to. The business quality is real, but at 46x I am already paying for a lot of the future, and the margin of safety does not justify conviction-sized exposure. What I pay attention to above all else is the earnings surprise trajectory. The beat streak is intact, but the magnitude has compressed from +3.7% to -2.7% — and at a 46x multiple, the market is not pricing in a miss. That asymmetry is worth respecting. Re-accelerating earnings surprise magnitude would shift my view constructive. Continued compression of beat magnitude at this multiple would move me toward a reduce.
Is ASML a buy, hold, or sell?
ASML carries a valuation grade of Hold. The trailing P/E of 45.7 sits 43% above the Technology sector median of 32.0x — a premium that demands sustained earnings delivery. Our discounted cash flow model produces an intrinsic range of $752–$1,657 — implying a -8% margin of safety at the current price of $1,302.47. The width of the DCF range reflects genuine uncertainty in the terminal growth rate assumption: the correct framework is a probability-weighted distribution over scenarios, not a single point estimate.
The company has beaten estimates in 75% of recent quarters. The most recent quarter missed by a 2.7% earnings surprise. Analyst estimate revisions are trending upward.
What are ASML's key risk factors?
With a beta of 1.43, ASML exhibits an above-market risk profile relative to the broad market. The 95th-percentile CVaR of -12.6% on a one-month horizon should inform position sizing directly: at a 10% portfolio weight, this tail event contributes approximately 1.3% of total portfolio loss in the worst 5% of months. Net margins of 29.4% are significantly above the Technology sector average of 22%, reflecting durable pricing power. Return on equity of 50.5% indicates highly efficient capital allocation. The balance sheet is conservatively leveraged at 24% debt-to-equity.
The options market shows a put/call ratio of 3.78, reflecting a notably bearish skew in derivative positioning. Implied volatility of 54.5% exceeds realized volatility of 46.3% by 8 points, suggesting options are pricing in elevated risk. Short interest is low at 0.2% of float, suggesting limited bearish conviction.
How does ASML fit in a diversified portfolio?
At typical HENRY portfolio weights — 10–20% of the equity allocation — ASML carries a beta of 1.43, meaning it amplifies broad market moves proportionally. The appropriate weight is not a function of conviction alone, but of the full covariance structure across all holdings. See the Ledoit-Wolf covariance framework for the methodology behind these calculations.
As a Technology constituent, ASML's risk profile should be evaluated alongside sector peers when constructing diversified portfolios.
True portfolio risk is a function of the full covariance structure across all holdings — not individual stock metrics. The Portfolio Health Check quantifies this at the portfolio level: it surfaces hidden concentration, marginal CVaR contributions, and the degree to which your overall allocation deviates from an optimal risk-adjusted mandate. The ASML analysis here is a single node in that larger structure.
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Launch Live Analysis →This analysis is produced using a systematic quantitative framework applied to market data and does not constitute investment advice. Prose commentary is AI-assisted and generated from structured quantitative inputs. All data and metrics are as of 2026-03-28 and are point-in-time estimates subject to revision without notice. CVaR figures are based on historical simulation and do not guarantee future outcomes. DCF ranges and upgrade/downgrade triggers are forward-looking statements based on current assumptions and may not materialise. Past performance does not guarantee future results. This analysis does not account for individual circumstances, tax position, or investment objectives — consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. This content is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute regulated investment advice under MiFID II or FCA guidelines. This content is not intended for US persons or residents of jurisdictions where its distribution would be contrary to local law or regulation. This service is not directed at residents of Finland, Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Iceland, or Poland. The author may hold long or short positions in securities mentioned in this analysis. Nothing on this page represents a solicitation to buy or sell any security. A.L. Capital Advisory is an independent private advisory practice and is not affiliated with ASML Holding N.V.